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Best NBA prop bets Dec. 31: Back Victor Wembanyama and Kevin Durant on New Year’s Eve

Two superstars headline Tuesday’s New Year’s Eve NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama is in the midst of a monster stretch and should stay hot against the Los Angeles Clippers. I’m also backing Norman Powell to score in that matchup and Kevin Durant on the glass against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 31.

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Best bet: Wembanyama over 25.5 points (-117)

We’re starting to see a slight market correction with Wembanyama’s point total headed north of 25 — but I still think this line is too low.

San Antonio’s center has been on a scoring binge, spurned by high volume and solid 3-point shooting.

Wembanyama is averaging 28.1 PPG in his last 15 games.
He’s cleared this mark in 9/15 games with 25+ points 11 times.
In that span, he’s shooting 36.9% from deep on 10.5 attempts per game.

Wembanyama has cleared this mark in five of his last six games. He dropped 42 points against the New York Knicks on Christmas and just had 34 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday.

Those are two of the better defensive teams in the league so I’m not worried about Los Angeles — which ranks fourth in defensive efficiency — slowing him down.

After all, the 7-foot-4 phenom is practically unguardable. He’s still not taking as many shots near the basket as I would like but you can’t argue with Wemby’s productivity right now.

Wembanyama fell just shy of this mark with 22 points on 9-of-22 shooting in early November. But that was when he was in a shooting funk. If we see that volume tonight, I’m confident he can blow by this total.

Key stat: Wembanyama is averaging 32.2 points in his last six games.

Quick picks

Powell over 23.5 points (-124): Here’s a guy whose point total hasn’t caught up with his production.

Powell has turned into the alpha dog on a surprisingly good Clippers team. He’s averaging a career-best 24.6 PPG and has been on fire in December:

26.7 PPG
50.0 FG%, 41.9 3PT%
8-2 against this line

L.A.’s shooting guard has cleared this mark in six straight while averaging right around 20 shots per night.

I love to see that type of volume, especially in an exploitable matchup.

The Spurs have the seventh-worst 3-point defence (43.7%), according to Cleaning the Glass. Powell takes 27% of his shots from that area of the court which ranks in the 76th percentile for all NBA players.

Durant over 7.5 rebounds (-118): You wouldn’t normally see Durant’s rebounding total this high but it makes sense given the circumstances.

Both teams’ starting centers — Phoenix’s Jusuf Nurkic (suspension) and Memphis’ Zach Edey (concussion) — are out.

Nurkic is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game while Edey was putting up 10.5 boards per night in December.

Standing at 6-foor-11 with an alien-like wingspan, Durant’s rebound floor has always been high.

He’s averaged at least 6.4 rebounds per game since his sophomore season and has cleared this mark in three of his last seven games.

Durant has recorded double-digit boards in three of his last six games without Nurkic.

Picks made at 10:57 a.m. ET on 12/31/2024.

Raptors vs. Celtics same-game parlay predictions Dec. 31: Back Jaylen Brown and Derrick White at +310

The Toronto Raptors wrap up 2024 with a matinee against the defending champion Boston Celtics.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a massive road dog and I’ll tease it further, banking 22.5 points with the Raps. Props bets on Jaylen Brown and Derrick White round out this +310 wager.

Check out my Raptors vs. Celtics same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 31.

Raptors vs. Celtics predictions

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Parlay: Raptors +22.5 + Brown over 34.5 PRA + White over 2.5 threes (+310)

Raptors +22.5 (-220): The Raptors have lost 10 straight games and are coming off consecutive blowouts where they failed to cover this number.

Now, they’re on the road against one of the best teams in basketball. That doesn’t inspire much confidence, and nor should it. But this is a big number and it’s one Toronto typically covers:

The Raptors are 19-12-1 ATS this season (fifth-best in the NBA).
Toronto has covered a +22.5 spread in 28 of 32 games this season (87.5%).
That includes a 126-123 overtime loss to the Celtics on Nov. 16 when they closed as 16.5-point underdogs.

Boston will likely win this game but I’m confident Toronto can keep it within this massive margin. The Celtics were untouchable on home court last season but have looked more human this year.

Joe Mazzula’s group is 12-6 at TD Garden but just 6-12 ATS. Boston has also lost four of its last six games.

SGP legs

Brown over 34.5 PRA (-113): Brown is running hot and tends to torch the Raptors. He should be in line for another big game tonight.

Boston’s swingman has cleared this mark in six of his last seven games against the Raptors. He’s averaged 26.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.4 assists (39 PRA) in that span.

Brown has cleared this line on points alone in two of his last four games and finished with 31 points, six assists and four rebounds his last time out.

He’s attempted 20-plus field goals in five straight games which gives us a solid floor to work with.

White over 2.5 threes (-240): White is arguably the fourth or fifth biggest name on the Celtics. Yet he’s still an Olympian averaging 16.9 PPG while shooting 38.5% from deep — that’s why they’re the champs.

The shooting guard is making 3.5 threes a night and has cleared this mark in four straight games and seven of his last eight.

He shoots with volume and accuracy from beyond the arc and went 3-for-12 against the Raptors earlier this season.

Toronto gives up the ninth-most 3s per game to SGs, per Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 8:40 a.m. ET 12/31/2024.

NHL best bet Dec. 30: Back Sam Bennett to record a point

I’ve got a best bet from Monday’s three-game NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: The Florida Panthers are favoured to beat a team with goaltending issues. I’m backing Sam Bennett to register a point in this plus-matchup.

Check out my NHL best bet for Dec. 30.

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Best bet: Bennett to score 1+ points (-134)

The New York Rangers are in a tailspin.

New York has lost 14 of its last 18 games and sits dead last in the Metropolitan Division with 33 points in 35 games.

The squad started the year off well almost exclusively thanks to the elite play of Igor Shesterkin.

But the netminder has hit a wall lately and owns an ugly 3.34 goals against average and a .897 save percentage in December.

It would be unfair to blame things squarely on Shesterkin. Check out how the Rangers stack up against the rest of the league defensively, per Natural Stat Trick:

3.53 xG against/60 (31st)
31.6 shots against/60 (31st)
62.34 chances against/60 (29th)

Shesterkin is being peppered on a nightly basis and Florida should be all over him tonight.

Bennett is far from the biggest name on the Panthers but he skates on the team’s second line alongside Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk.

Those two are -165 and -240 to register a point, respectively.

Bennett has been held pointless in four straight but has 27 points in 34 games this season and has logged nine shots in his last two outings.

Key stat: Bennett has a point in six of his last seven games against the Rangers dating back to last year’s Eastern Conference final.

Pick made at 3:09 p.m. 12/30/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 30: Back Sam Bennett and Barrett Hayton to record a point

I’ve got two prop picks from Monday’s three-game NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: The Florida Panthers and Utah Hockey Club are both favoured to beat teams with goaltending issues. I’m backing one player from each team — Sam Bennett and Barrett Hayton — to register a point.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 30.

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Best bet: Bennett to score 1+ points (-136)

The New York Rangers are in a tailspin.

New York has lost 14 of its last 18 games and sits dead last in the Metropolitan Division with 33 points in 35 games.

The squad started the year off well almost exclusively thanks to the elite play of Igor Shesterkin.

But the netminder has hit a wall lately and owns an ugly 3.34 goals against average and a .897 save percentage in December.

It would be unfair to blame things squarely on Shesterkin. Check out how the Rangers stack up against the rest of the league defensively, per Natural Stat Trick:

3.53 xG against/60 (31st)
31.6 shots against/60 (31st)
62.34 chances against/60 (29th)

Shesterkin is being peppered on a nightly basis and Florida should be all over him tonight.

Bennett is far from the biggest name on the Panthers but he skates on the team’s second line alongside Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk.

Those two are -165 and -240 to register a point, respectively.

Bennett has been held pointless in four straight but has 27 points in 34 games this season and has logged nine shots in his last two outings.

Key stat: Bennett has a point in six of his last seven games against the Rangers dating back to last year’s Eastern Conference final.

Quick picks

Hayton to score 1+ points (+145): Hayton and the Hockey Club take on a Seattle Kraken team struggling to get saves.

The Kraken have lost five of their last six while allowing 4.83 goals per game. The only victory came in overtime, 5-4, against the Vancouver Canucks.

Hayton is having a very mediocre season (16 points in 35 games) but he might be turning a corner.

The 24-year-old has five points in his last five games, cashing this bet three times.

He’s also skating on Utah’s top line alongside Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz, which piques my interest from a value standpoint.

Picks made at 1:54 p.m. 12/29/2024.

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Cavaliers vs. Warriors same-game parlay predicitons Dec. 30: Back Steph Curry and fade Donovan Mitchell on Monday

The Golden State Warriors host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: Cleveland is a small road favourite but I’m not picking a side or total this evening. An all-player-prop ticket featuring Steph Curry, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley makes up this +330 SGP.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 30.

Cavaliers vs. Warriors predictions

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Parlay: Curry over 23.5 points + Mobley over 14.5 points + Mitchell under 3.5 threes (+330)

Curry over 23.5 points (-141): Curry has been inconsistent this season but still leads the Warriors in scoring (22.5 points/game) and volume (16.8 shots/game).

And more importantly, he draws a great matchup.

The Cavaliers allow the sixth-most points and fourth-most 3s per game to opposing point guards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Curry has cleared this total in five of 10 games in December while also landing on 22 and 23 points.

He only scored 12 against the Cavs in Cleveland earlier this year but played just 24 minutes in a blowout loss.

Curry still shot 50.0% in that game and has taken north of 20 shots in three of his last four games.

A 4.5-point spread indicates this should be a competitive outing where Curry will be active.

SGP legs

Mobley over 14.5 points (-220): I love the over on Mobley’s 16.5 points total as a standalone play and will happily shave some points off for this SGP.

The fourth-year power forward is averaging a career-best 18.8 PPG and has been on a roll lately:

19.9 PPG in December
22+ points in 4/5 games
15+ points in 10/12 games

Mobley has cleared this mark in five straight and gets a Warriors team with the second-worst midrange defence (46.3%), per Cleaning the Glass.

Cleveland’s power forward does a lot of damage from that area of the court and scored 23 against Golden State earlier this season.

Mitchell under 3.5 threes (-125): Mitchell has been letting loose from deep this month, making 4.2 threes on 9.1 attempts a night (45.1%).

It’s a little scary to fade a player that hot. But this is a big number and Golden State owns the sixth-best 3-point defence in basketball.

Mitchell had one of his worst shooting nights of the season when he last played the Warriors (12 points, 1-of-7 from deep).

He has also gone under this mark in three of four games versus Golden State since joining Cleveland.

Picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET 12/30/2024

Lions vs. 49ers Week 17 same-game parlay predictions: Back Samuel, St. Brown at +375 on MNF

The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers meet in Week 17 in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship.

The pregame narrative: The outcome of this game doesn’t matter but I’ll still back the Lions to win as road favourites. Prop bets on Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Deebo Samuel round out this +375 wager.

Check out my Lions vs. 49ers same-game parlay predictions for Monday Night Football on Dec. 30.

Lions vs. 49ers same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Lions moneyline + Gibbs to score + St Browrn over 59.5 receiving yards + Samuel over 39.5 receiving yards (+375)

Lions moneyline (-190): The schedule makers probably thought this game would be more meaningful but San Francisco is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Detroit’s bid for the NFC’s No. 1 seed will come down to next week’s game against the Minnesota Vikings, regardless of a win or loss on Monday.

Injuries have ravaged both teams but the Lions keep finding ways to win while the Niners unraveled.

Detroit is 10-1 since its bye week with the only loss coming to the Buffalo Bills in a 48-42 shootout.

The Lions boast the league’s top scoring offence (32.9 PPG) and are a perfect 7-0 on the road.

San Francisco has dropped five of its last six and has only scored more than 17 points once in that span (vs. Chicago Bears).

The Lions will score and I simply don’t trust an offence missing Christian McCaffrey, Brandon AIyuk and Trent Williams to keep pace.

Other parlay picks

Gibbs to score (-250): Detroit is down David Montgomery but that only means more opportunities for Gibbs.

And it’s clear the dynamic tailback will be heavily involved with a rushing and receiving total set at a whopping 125.5 yards.

Gibbs turned 27 touches into 154 scrimmage yards and a score last week. He’s found the end zone in three straight games and five of his last six.

The sophomore will have plenty of chances to score on Monday.

St. Brown over 59.5 receiving yards (-215): St. Brown has quietly put together another elite season:

101 receptions (T-5)
1,126 receiving yards (eighth)
11 TDs (T-3)

The fourth-year wideout is averaging 75.0 yards per game and has cleared this teased-down mark in six of his last seven outings.

The 49ers are down a boatload of players on defence, including No. 1 corner Charvarius Ward.

St. Brown caught seven of 11 targets for 87 yards against the Niners in last year’s NFC Championship game.

Samuel over 39.5 receiving yards (-200): Samuel has clearly lost a step this year but I trust him to clear this modest line.

Detroit allows the fewest yards (35.2) and second-fewest receptions (3.73) to tight ends per game, according to CBS Sports.

That should take some looks away from George Kittle in what I expect to be a pass-heavy gamescript.

Samuel fell under this line in five straight games prior to last week’s seven-catch, 96-yard outburst against the Miami Dolphins.

But he still ranks in the 80th percentile for target share (18.4%) among wideouts and is in a good position to produce against a Lions defence allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game (240.4).

Picks made at 10:05 a.m. on 12/30/24.

Best NFL Week 17 prop bets: Back Bijan Robinson, fade Rico Dowdle on Sunday

A trio of running backs headline these NFL Week 17 prop bets.

The pregame narrative: I’m backing Bijan Robinson to produce in a plus matchup and am fading Rico Dowdle against a tough Philadelphia Eagles defence.

Check out the best NFL Week 17 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 17 prop bets

Go to full NFL Week 17 betting markets.

Best bet: Robinson over 19.5 receiving yards (-117)

I backed Robinson to clear his 21.5 receiving total last week and it didn’t come close.

Atlanta’s tailback caught just two passes for nine yards but was still heavily involved, turning 22 carries into 94 rushing yards and two scores.

I’ll go back to the well on Robinson as a pass catcher despite him falling short of this line in three straight.

The second-year RB is still 10-5 against this line on the season while averaging 28.0 receiving yards per game.

He’s elusive enough to clear this mark on just one catch and I expect him to be targeted often by Michael Penix Jr. against the Washington Commanders.

Washington’s defence has the fourth-highest blitz rate (31.3%) and ninth-highest pressure rate (23.6%) in the NFL.

That should force the rookie QB to turn to Robinson as a check-down option.

Key stat: Robison has a 13.2% target share which ranks in the 94th percentile of all RBs, according to Rotowire.

Quick picks

Dowdle under 59.5 rushing yards (-120): On the surface level, the over on Dowdle’s rushing total might seem like a smash play.

CeeDee Lamb’s season is over and Dallas’ running back has topped 100 rushing yards in three of his last four games.

But no Lamb means the Cowboys will struggle to move the chains, which should in turn put them down early and force a more pass-heavy offence.

Dowdle is coming off an awful 13-carry, 23-yard performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and now gets one of the best rush defences in the NFL.

Philadelphia allows the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (102.9) and the eighth-fewest yards per rush (4.3). The Eagles held Dowdle to 53 yards when they met earlier this season.

Picks made at 1:55 p.m. ET on 12/27/2024.

NFL Week 17 betting guide: Props, parlays and best bet recommendations for the weekend

The NFL’s regular season is drawing to a close.

A Saturday tripleheader laden with playoff implications gives way to nine games on Sunday. Most of the postseason spots are locked in but there is still lots to decide, including who will get the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.

Check out our Week 17 NFL betting guide, featuring staff picks and predictions to help you make the best wagers.

NFL betting guide: Week 17

Let’s lay out what’s at stake this Saturday:

The Los Angeles Chargers can secure a playoff spot with a win over the New England Patriots.

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals need a win against the Denver Broncos to keep their playoff hopes alive. Bo Nix and Co. can punch their ticket with a victory.

The Los Angeles Rams can clinch the NFC West this weekend — with some help. The Rams are 8-2 in their last 10 and are a touchdown favourite over the Arizona Cardinals.

Sunday’s 1 p.m. slate is very ho-hum.

The Buffalo Bills can lock in their slot as the AFC’s No. 2 seed with a win over the New York Jets. Josh Allen also looks to solidify his case as the league’s MVP.

At the same time, the Philadelphia Eagles aim to rebound from a loss by defeating their arc-rivals, the Dallas Cowboys.

The biggest game of the weekend comes at 4:25 p.m. ET in Title Town when the Green Bay Packers host the Minnesota Vikings.

And at night, the Atlanta Falcons hit the road for a date with the Washington Commanders. The Dirty Birds can still win the division and hope Michael Penix Jr. can out-duel fellow rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.

Here are some quick betting notes for Week 17:

Highest total: Broncos vs. Bengals (49.5)
Biggest spread: Jets vs. Bills (-10)
Six teams have odds of +200 or longer to win (Cardinals, Panthers, Cowboys, Giants, Jets, Browns)

Lines and odds are listed as of 3:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 27.

For the latest, visit our NFL Week 17 markets. And be sure to check out the latest injury news from around the league.

Now, see how our staff is wagering on this slate.

Week 17 betting predictions

If you need a one-stop shop for spread bets, we have you covered.

Our NFL Week 17 ATS picks, via Avery Perri, Steven Psihogios and Spencer Closs provide a recommendation against the spread for every game.

We have plenty of other picks, too.

Parlay picks: The Packers don’t have a signature win over one of their top divisional rivals … yet. Psihogios thinks that changes this weekend and is backing Green Bay to beat Minnesota in his +435 wager.

Prop picks: Bucky Irving, Rico Dowdle and Bijan Robinson are the subjects of this week’s NFL prop picks. Find out how Perri is betting on them.

TD picks: Closs is backing one star wide receiver and two running backs to find the end zone this week.

Packers vs. Vikings SGP picks: Green Bay and Minnesota are both playoff-bound, but there are still seeding opportunities at stake. This +310 SGP includes prop bets on both starting tailbacks, Josh Jacobs and Aaron Jones.

Falcons vs. Commanders prop picks: Michael Penix Jr.’s first NFL start was … okay. But his efficiency was encouraging. Our Jordan Horrobin expects a solid showing from the rookie on Sunday Night Football.

Lions vs. 49ers best bets: If Minnesota loses on Sunday, a Monday Night Football win by the Lions would grant them another NFC North title. Closs is content to lay points with the visitors in prime time.

Visit our football vertical for complete NFL coverage, including the latest Super Bowl odds.

Best NFL Week 17 prop bets: Back Bijan Robinson, fade Rico Dowdle on Sunday

A trio of running backs headline these NFL Week 17 prop bets.

The pregame narrative: I’m backing Bijan Robinson and Bucky Irving to produce in plus matchups and am fading Rico Dowdle against a tough Philadelphia Eagles defence.

Check out the best NFL Week 17 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 17 prop bets

Go to full NFL Week 17 betting markets.

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Best bet: Robinson over 18.5 receiving yards (-117)