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Vikings vs. Lions Week 18 SNF best bets and odds: Back Minnesota to score, Jordan Addison to perform

The NFL has saved the biggest game of the regular season for last.

The pregame narrative: The NFC North and the conference’s top seed are up for grabs on Sunday Night Football when the Detroit Lions (14-2) host the Minnesota Vikings (14-2). Injuries have rendered the Lions’ defence toothless, so I’ll back Minnesota to score and Jordan Addison to produce.

Check out my Vikings vs. Lions best bets for MNF on Jan. 5.

Vikings vs. Lions best bets

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Best Bet: Vikings over 27.5 points (+104)

Detroit’s defence is hanging on by a thread.

The unit has 13 players on the injured reserve, including Aidan Hutchinson, Carlton Davis and most of the linebacking corps.

Unsurprisingly, the second and third-stringers have been getting torched. Look how Detroit’s defence stacks up against the rest of the NFL over the last five weeks:

31st in points allowed/game (30.0)
31st in yards allowed/game (403.0)
32nd in RBSDM.com defensive EPA per play (+0.192)

Three of the Lions’ last five opponents have scored 30-plus points. The outlying games were against the Chicago Bears, so I won’t put much stock into that.

Minnesota’s offence is a well-oiled machine peaking at the right time.

The Vikings have scored at least 27 points in five of their last six games (29.8 PPG average) and hung 29 on a healthier Lions defence earlier this season.

Sam Darnold has thrown for 12 touchdown passes in his last four games while Justin Jefferson and Addison make for a borderline unguardable one-two punch.

In the climate-controlled Ford Field, I expect Kevin O’Connell to cook up a masterful game plan.

Key stat: The Lions allowed a combined 1,034 yards of offence to the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers.

Quick pick

Addison over 64.5 receiving yards (-114): Detroit will do everything it can to slow Jefferson, which should open up looks for Addison.

The second-year receiver is having a huge second half driven by a massive increase in target share:

First seven games: 4.7 targets/game, 42.6 receiving yards/game
Last seven games: 8.6 targets/game, 82.4 receiving yards/game

Addison has received at least eight targets in six of his last seven games, including each of the last four.

I like this number against any team but it’s looking like a smash play against Detroit.

The Lions have given up the most passing yards (1,570) with the highest passer rating (109.7) over the last five weeks.

Picks made at 10:21 a.m. ET 01/03/2025.

Bengals vs. Steelers Week 18 same-game parlay predictions: Back Burrow and Pickens in +375 wager

The Cincinnati Bengals aim to keep their playoff hopes alive on Saturday against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The pregame narrative: Cincinnati needs a win, and Pittsburgh is on a three-game losing streak. Still, I’ll tease the Steelers to +7.5 underdogs at home. Player prop bets on Joe Burrow, George Pickens and Jaylen Warren round out this +375 wager.

Check out my Bengals vs. Steelers same-game parlay predictions for the game on Jan. 4.

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Parlay: Steelers +7.5 + Burrow 250+ passing yards + Pickens 70+ receiving yards + Warren 30+ rushing yards (+375)

Steelers +7.5 (-305): The Steelers entered Week 15 with a 10-3 record and a stranglehold on the AFC North. Since then, they’ve lost three straight while being outscored 90-30.

So why do I want to back this potentially fraudulent team?

In Pittsburgh’s defence, the losses were to the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs — three of the top-five teams on the Super Bowl odds board.

Mike Tomlin’s group has beaten up on bad teams this season, and the Bengals are a bad team.

Cincinnati is on a four-game winning streak, but its only win over serious competition in that span came in overtime last week against the Denver Broncos.

Before that, the Bengals had lost their last seven games against teams that currently hold a winning record. That includes a 44-38 loss to the Steelers in Cincinnati earlier this year.

Other parlay picks

Burrow 250+ passing yards (-315): Burrow’s numbers are out of this world. We’re talking MVP-calibre stats across the board:

4,641 passing yards (1st in NFL)
42 passing touchdowns (1st in NFL)
250+ passing yards in eight straight games

Part of the reason they’re so gaudy is because Cincinnati is always playing from behind. But part of it is just because he’s a damn good player who has an elite receiving corps.

I expect Pittsburgh’s offence to wake up against Cincinnati’s No. 29-ranked scoring defence. That should force the Bengals into a pass-happy attack.

Burrow put up 309 passing yards against Pittsburgh in Week 13 and is averaging 331 passing yards in his last eight games.

Pickens 70+ receiving yards (-104): This leg really drives up the SGP’s price.

Pickens was largely ineffective in his return from a three-game absence. He caught 3-of-7 targets for 50 yards against the Chiefs on Christmas, and 41 of those came on one play.

However, his numbers before that were encouraging. Check out Pickens’ stats in the previous six games with Russell Wilson under centre:

4.8 receptions/game
7.7 targets/game
81.2 yards/game

Pickens cleared this line in five of those contests and logged 74 yards against the Bengals. And last year, he torched Cincinnati for 195 yards and two touchdowns with Mason Rudolph throwing him the ball.

Warren 30+ rushing yards (-265): It looks like all the tread is off Najee Harris’ tires. That should put Warren in a position to be the team’s RB1 heading into the postseason.

But Tomlin likes to split carries between the backs, so I’ll tease down his yardage total significantly.

Warren has out-snapped Harris (not by much) in four consecutive games, clearing this line three times. He most recently turned 11 carries into 71 yards against a stout Chiefs front.

Cincinnati allows 4.5 yards per rush (20th) and I expect Warren to rumble.

Picks made at 2:00 p.m. on 01/02/25.

76ers vs. Warriors prop picks Jan. 2: Back Embiid to score, Maxey to be active on defence

The Philadelphia 76ers and Golden State Warriors battle in the Bay Area on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The 76ers are red-hot and Joel Embiid is back to filling the basket. I expect Embiid to have a big night and am also taking a rare defensive prop on Tyrese Maxey.

Check out my 76ers vs. Warriors prop picks for Jan. 2.

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Best Bet: Embiid over 27.5 points (-120)

Embiid missed yesterday’s game against the Sacramento Kings due to injury management and is officially listed as questionable tonight.

But load management has become synonymous with Philly’s centre, who said earlier this year that he may never play in a back-to-back again.

He should play tonight, and I’m bullish on a huge performance.

Embiid has cleared his point total in three straight games, including on Christmas when I backed him to go over 25.5 points against the Boston Celtics.

In the two games since then, he dropped 32 and 37 points against the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively.

This line is simply too low for a player who averaged north of 33 points in each of the last two seasons.

Embiid had an injury-riddled start to the season but is receiving heavy minutes again and seems to have his scoring touch back.

This is also a great matchup:

Golden State has the third-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (37.9%), according to Cleaning the Glass.
Embiid takes 51% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 96th percentile of all NBA players.

The Warriors are 3-point favourites as of 11:30 a.m. ET. This should be a close game where Embiid gets plenty of run.

Key stat: Embiid has scored 30-plus points in five of the last six games in which he played over 20 minutes.

Quick pick

Maxey over 1.5 steals (-138): Maxey is known for filling the basket, but not enough is made of his much-improved defence.

Philly’s point guard ranks second in the NBA in steals (2.1/game) and is coming off a five-steal night against the Kings.

He’s had at least one steal in every game this year, which gives us a solid floor to work with.

Maxey has had multiple steals in four of his last five games, with three-plus steals in three of those contests.

The Warriors aren’t necessarily a turnover-heavy team — ranking 14th in giveaways (14.4/game) — but this is more about the player than the matchup.

Picks made at 11:38 a.m. ET 01/02/2025.

76ers vs. Warriors prop picks Jan. 2: Back Embiid to score, Maxey to be active on defence

The Philadelphia 76ers and Golden State Warriors battle in the Bay Area on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The 76ers are red-hot and Joel Embiid is back to filling the basket. I expect Embiid to have a big night and am also taking a rare defensive prop on Tyrese Maxey.

Check out my 76ers vs. Warriors prop picks for Jan. 2.

76ers vs. Warriors prop picks

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Best Bet: Embiid over 28.5 points (-113)

Embiid missed yesterday’s game against the Sacramento Kings due to injury management and is officially listed as questionable tonight.

But load management has become synonymous with Philly’s centre, who said earlier this year that he may never play in a back-to-back again.

He should play tonight, and I’m bullish on a huge performance.

Embiid has cleared his point total in three straight games, including on Christmas when I backed him to go over 25.5 points against the Boston Celtics.

In the two games since then, he dropped 32 and 37 points against the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively.

This line is simply too low for a player who averaged north of 33 points in each of the last two seasons.

Embiid had an injury-riddled start to the season but is receiving heavy minutes again and seems to have his scoring touch back.

This is also a great matchup:

Golden State has the third-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (37.9%), according to Cleaning the Glass.
Embiid takes 51% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 96th percentile of all NBA players.

The Warriors are 3-point favourites as of 11:30 a.m. ET. This should be a close game where Embiid gets plenty of run.

Key stat: Embiid has scored 30-plus points in five of the last six games in which he played over 20 minutes.

Quick pick

Maxey over 1.5 steals (-127): Maxey is known for filling the basket, but not enough is made of his much-improved defence.

Philly’s point guard ranks second in the NBA in steals (2.1/game) and is coming off a five-steal night against the Kings.

He’s had at least one steal in every game this year, which gives us a solid floor to work with.

Maxey has had multiple steals in four of his last five games, with three-plus steals in three of those contests.

The Warriors aren’t necessarily a turnover-heavy team — ranking 14th in giveaways (14.4/game) — but this is more about the player than the matchup.

Picks made at 11:38 a.m. ET 01/02/2025.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders Jan. 2: Back Toronto to win, Matthew Knies to find stat sheet

The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders battle on Long Island on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto beat New York, 3-1, in a New Year’s Eve matinee two days ago. Auston Matthews remains sidelined, but I expect the Buds to pick up another win and Matthew Knies to record a point.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders for Jan. 2.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders

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Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-110)

Toronto enters the new year atop the Atlantic Division with a 23-13-2 record.

The Leafs have dropped three of their last five games, but their overall body of work is encouraging. And while Matthews’ mystery injury is concerning, the squad hasn’t missed a beat with him sidelined.

Toronto is 9-5-0 without its captain this season.
The Leafs are 44-24-2 without Matthews since he entered the league.

Strong goaltending and gritty, defensive play has been a big part of why the Leafs are succeeding without the reigning Rocket Richard winner.

Joseph Woll is having a breakout year, ranking 10th in goals-against average (2.48) and 11th in save percentage (.913).

He turned away 30 of 31 shots against the Isles on Tuesday.

New York isn’t a team that can pour it on offensively, either. The Isles are 14-17-7, scoring the seventh-fewest goals per game (2.63).

Combine that with underwhelming goaltending and I think the Leafs should win comfortably.

Key stat: New York allowed the seventh-most goals per game (3.62) in December.

Quick picks

Knies to record a point (+100): Knies is on a four-game pointless drought but he’s still getting plenty of opportunities.

The winger skates on Toronto’s second line alongside David Kampf and William Nylander. The latter leads the Maple Leafs in goals (23) and is second in points (43).

Knies is also playing on the first power-play unit, which will goes up against an awful Islanders penalty kill.

New York is killing a league-worst 63.9% of its penalties. That’s 5.7% lower than the Detroit Red Wings, who rank 31st.

Knies recorded a point against the Isles on Dec. 21 and had a team-high five shots on goal when they met on New Year’s Eve.

NHL picks made at 10:21 a.m. ET on 01/02/25.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders Jan. 2: Back Toronto to win, Matthew Knies to find stat sheet

The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders battle on Long Island on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto beat New York, 3-1, in a New Year’s Eve matinee two days ago. Auston Matthews remains sidelined, but I expect the Buds to pick up another win and Matthew Knies to record a point.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders for Jan. 2.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders

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Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-108)

Toronto enters the new year atop the Atlantic Division with a 23-13-2 record.

The Leafs have dropped three of their last five games, but their overall body of work is encouraging. And while Matthews’ mystery injury is concerning, the squad hasn’t missed a beat with him sidelined.

Toronto is 9-5-0 without its captain this season.
The Leafs are 44-24-2 without Matthews since he entered the league.

Strong goaltending and gritty, defensive play has been a big part of why the Leafs are succeeding without the reigning Rocket Richard winner.

Joseph Woll is having a breakout year, ranking 10th in goals-against average (2.48) and 11th in save percentage (.913).

He turned away 30 of 31 shots against the Isles on Tuesday.

New York isn’t a team that can pour it on offensively, either. The Isles are 14-17-7, scoring the seventh-fewest goals per game (2.63).

Combine that with underwhelming goaltending and I think the Leafs should win comfortably.

Key stat: New York allowed the seventh-most goals per game (3.62) in December.

Quick picks

Knies to record a point (-103): Knies is on a four-game pointless drought but he’s still getting plenty of opportunities.

The winger skates on Toronto’s second line alongside David Kampf and William Nylander. The latter leads the Maple Leafs in goals (23) and is second in points (43).

Knies is also playing on the first power-play unit, which will goes up against an awful Islanders penalty kill.

New York is killing a league-worst 63.9% of its penalties. That’s 5.7% lower than the Detroit Red Wings, who rank 31st.

Knies recorded a point against the Isles on Dec. 21 and had a team-high five shots on goal when they met on New Year’s Eve.

NHL picks made at 10:21 a.m. ET on 01/02/25.

The Sentry odds, predictions and best bets: Bet on Matsuyama, Pendrith in Hawaii

The PGA Tour is back.

The latest: A new season begins with The Sentry, hosted at Kapalua Plantation Course in Hawaii. The first of eight signature events features a 60-man field but two big names — Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy — won’t be playing.

Check out our The Sentry odds and best bets for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on Jan. 2.

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Xander Schauffele tops the odds board after adding two majors to the trophy cabinet last season.

Shauffele had 11 straight top-20 finishes before his T41 at the ZoZo Championship in October. He was T10 at the Sentry last year and runner-up to Justin Thomas in 2020.

Speaking of JT, he’s second on the odds board. The former World No. 1 has a great history here and is searching for his first win since the PGA Championship in 2022.

There are a handful of big names coming in with 20-to-1 odds or shorter, including Hideki Matsuyama, who I’m picking to win (more on that later).

Four Canadians are playing this week with Corey Conners leading the way on the odds board.

The Sentry best bets

Matsuyama to win (+1,800) & top-20 finish (-137): Full disclosure: There’s always a risk Hideki will tweak his back and pull the chute mid-event.

But I won’t be scared and think this is a perfect spot for the 32-year-old to pick off another win.

Matsuyama has struggled at Kapalua in recent years but still has three top-five finishes at this venue on his ledger. It’s a perplexing resume because this course should fit his eye.

The plantation course is often compared to Augusta National thanks to its wide fairways and wild undulations.

Players need an elite second-shot game to compete at either venue. Matsuyama won the green jacket in 2021 and is one of the best ball strikers on the planet.

He also has a win, a T2 and a T3 in his last six starts. That math checks out to me.

Pendrith to win (+5,500) & top-20 finish (+150): I’m taking a flier on Canadian Taylor Pendrith, who is playing some great golf right now.

Elite iron play has propelled him to six top-20 finishes in his last seven starts.

Pendrith ranks third in strokes gained: approach (+0.97) in this field behind only Matsuyama and Thomas over the last 20 starts, according to DataGolf.

He can bomb the ball off the tee and his accuracy issues with the big stick won’t matter here. The plus-money odds to finish in the top 20 are nice but I have to sprinkle his 55-to-1 odds to win.

Greyserman top-20 finish (+125): Does Greyserman have the clutch gene? It doesn’t look like it.

The 29-year-old let multiple tournaments slip away in the fall but put himself in a position to win, which is what’s important here.

He has four top-five finishes in his last six starts (three runner-ups), never finishing worse than T33.

Greyserman is an elite putter and a respectable iron player. I like his chances of finishing in the top third of this field.

Golf picks made at 12:54 p.m. on 12/31/2024.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks Dec. 31: Back Edwards, Randle against OKC

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder close out 2024 with a monster matchup.

The pregame narrative: The T-Wolves and Thunder are two elite teams led by bright young stars. I’m backing Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle to have big games for Minnesota on the road

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks for Dec. 31.

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Best Bet: Edwards over 23.5 points (-112)

Let’s get the ugly out of the way: Edwards is having a bad month.

The superstar guard has seen a massive dip in scoring:

October-November (19 games): 27.7 PPG, 21.2 FGA, 45.3 FG%
December (12 games): 20.5 PPG, 18.5 FGA, 42.3 FG%

Edwards is taking fewer, less accurate shots and his points totals have corrected as a result. But I think this line is too low even against an elite defensive team like OKC.

Even in a bad month, he’s 5-7 against this line. And it’s not like 18.5 field goal attempts per game is bad from a volume standpoint.

The Thunder allow the seventh-fewest points per game to shooting guards, according to Fantasy Pros. They also have the second-best home defensive rating in basketball.

But somehow, Edwards has cooked in this building.

He’s scored 24-plus points in four of his last five games here, including both games last season.

Key stat: Edwards is averaging 26.5 PPG on the road this season, clearing this mark in five of his last six road games.

Quick pick

Randle over 11.5 rebounds and assists (-118): In an ideal world, Randle will be dishing it and Edwards will be scoring.

The first-year Timberwolf has been a solid facilitator, averaging 4.4 assists per game. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 6.6 assists and has cleared this line four times.

But it’s on the glass that I expect Randle to really flourish.

The Thunder have been a much better rebounding team with Isaiah Hartenstein in the mix but still aren’t great. They are 19th in rebounding rate since he joined on Nov. 20 and were dead last beforehand.

This is a plus matchup for Randle as OKC allows the third-most rebounds per game to power forwards.

The over on his 6.5 rebound total carries -141 juice so I’ll instead pivot to this rebound and assist line.

Picks made at 1:02 p.m. ET 12/31/2024.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks Dec. 31: Back Edwards, Randle against OKC

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder close out 2024 with a monster matchup.

The pregame narrative: The T-Wolves and Thunder are two elite teams led by bright young stars. I’m backing Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle to have big games for Minnesota on the road

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks for Dec. 31.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks

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Best Bet: Edwards over 22.5 points (-137)

Let’s get the ugly out of the way: Edwards is having a bad month.

The superstar guard has seen a massive dip in scoring:

October-November (19 games): 27.7 PPG, 21.2 FGA, 45.3 FG%
December (12 games): 20.5 PPG, 18.5 FGA, 42.3 FG%

Edwards is taking fewer, less accurate shots and his points totals have corrected as a result. But I think this line is too low even against an elite defensive team like OKC.

Even in a bad month, he’s 6-6 against this line. And it’s not like 18.5 field goal attempts per game is bad from a volume standpoint.

The Thunder allow the seventh-fewest points per game to shooting guards, according to Fantasy Pros. They also have the second-best home defensive rating in basketball.

But somehow, Edwards has cooked in this building.

He’s scored 24-plus points in four of his last five games here, including both games last season.

Key stat: Edwards is averaging 26.5 PPG on the road this season, clearing this mark in five of his last six road games.

Quick pick

Randle over 11.5 rebounds and assists (-106): In an ideal world, Randle will be dishing it and Edwards will be scoring.

The first-year Timberwolf has been a solid facilitator, averaging 4.4 assists per game. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 6.6 assists and has cleared this line four times.

But it’s on the glass that I expect Randle to really flourish.

The Thunder have been a much better rebounding team with Isaiah Hartenstein in the mix but still aren’t great. They are 19th in rebounding rate since he joined on Nov. 20 and were dead last beforehand.

This is a plus matchup for Randle as OKC allows the third-most rebounds per game to power forwards.

The over on his 6.5 rebound total carries -141 juice so I’ll instead pivot to this rebound and assist line.

Picks made at 1:02 p.m. ET 12/31/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 31: Back Victor Wembanyama and Kevin Durant on New Year’s Eve

Two superstars headline Tuesday’s New Year’s Eve NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama is in the midst of a monster stretch and should stay hot against the Los Angeles Clippers. I’m also backing Norman Powell to score in that matchup and Kevin Durant on the glass against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 31.

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Best bet: Wembanyama over 25.5 points (-125)

We’re starting to see a slight market correction with Wembanyama’s point total headed north of 25 — but I still think this line is too low.

San Antonio’s center has been on a scoring binge, spurned by high volume and solid 3-point shooting.

Wembanyama is averaging 28.1 PPG in his last 15 games.
He’s cleared this mark in 9/15 games with 25+ points 11 times.
In that span, he’s shooting 36.9% from deep on 10.5 attempts per game.

Wembanyama has cleared this mark in five of his last six games. He dropped 42 points against the New York Knicks on Christmas and just had 34 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday.

Those are two of the better defensive teams in the league so I’m not worried about Los Angeles — which ranks fourth in defensive efficiency — slowing him down.

After all, the 7-foot-4 phenom is practically unguardable. He’s still not taking as many shots near the basket as I would like but you can’t argue with Wemby’s productivity right now.

Wembanyama fell just shy of this mark with 22 points on 9-of-22 shooting in early November. But that was when he was in a shooting funk. If we see that volume tonight, I’m confident he can blow by this total.

Key stat: Wembanyama is averaging 32.2 points in his last six games.

Quick picks

Powell over 23.5 points (-125): Here’s a guy whose point total hasn’t caught up with his production.

Powell has turned into the alpha dog on a surprisingly good Clippers team. He’s averaging a career-best 24.6 PPG and has been on fire in December:

26.7 PPG
50.0 FG%, 41.9 3PT%
8-2 against this line

L.A.’s shooting guard has cleared this mark in six straight while averaging right around 20 shots per night.

I love to see that type of volume, especially in an exploitable matchup.

The Spurs have the seventh-worst 3-point defence (43.7%), according to Cleaning the Glass. Powell takes 27% of his shots from that area of the court which ranks in the 76th percentile for all NBA players.

Durant over 7.5 rebounds (-134): You wouldn’t normally see Durant’s rebounding total this high but it makes sense given the circumstances.

Both teams’ starting centers — Phoenix’s Jusuf Nurkic (suspension) and Memphis’ Zach Edey (concussion) — are out.

Nurkic is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game while Edey was putting up 10.5 boards per night in December.

Standing at 6-foor-11 with an alien-like wingspan, Durant’s rebound floor has always been high.

He’s averaged at least 6.4 rebounds per game since his sophomore season and has cleared this mark in three of his last seven games.

Durant has recorded double-digit boards in three of his last six games without Nurkic.

Picks made at 10:57 a.m. ET on 12/31/2024.