Two superstars headline Tuesday’s New Year’s Eve NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama is in the midst of a monster stretch and should stay hot against the Los Angeles Clippers. I’m also backing Norman Powell to score in that matchup and Kevin Durant on the glass against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 31.
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Best bet: Wembanyama over 25.5 points (-125)
We’re starting to see a slight market correction with Wembanyama’s point total headed north of 25 — but I still think this line is too low.
San Antonio’s center has been on a scoring binge, spurned by high volume and solid 3-point shooting.
- Wembanyama is averaging 28.1 PPG in his last 15 games.
- He’s cleared this mark in 9/15 games with 25+ points 11 times.
- In that span, he’s shooting 36.9% from deep on 10.5 attempts per game.
Wembanyama has cleared this mark in five of his last six games. He dropped 42 points against the New York Knicks on Christmas and just had 34 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday.
Those are two of the better defensive teams in the league so I’m not worried about Los Angeles — which ranks fourth in defensive efficiency — slowing him down.
After all, the 7-foot-4 phenom is practically unguardable. He’s still not taking as many shots near the basket as I would like but you can’t argue with Wemby’s productivity right now.
Wembanyama fell just shy of this mark with 22 points on 9-of-22 shooting in early November. But that was when he was in a shooting funk. If we see that volume tonight, I’m confident he can blow by this total.
Key stat: Wembanyama is averaging 32.2 points in his last six games.
Quick picks
Powell over 23.5 points (-125): Here’s a guy whose point total hasn’t caught up with his production.
Powell has turned into the alpha dog on a surprisingly good Clippers team. He’s averaging a career-best 24.6 PPG and has been on fire in December:
- 26.7 PPG
- 50.0 FG%, 41.9 3PT%
- 8-2 against this line
L.A.’s shooting guard has cleared this mark in six straight while averaging right around 20 shots per night.
I love to see that type of volume, especially in an exploitable matchup.
The Spurs have the seventh-worst 3-point defence (43.7%), according to Cleaning the Glass. Powell takes 27% of his shots from that area of the court which ranks in the 76th percentile for all NBA players.
Durant over 7.5 rebounds (-134): You wouldn’t normally see Durant’s rebounding total this high but it makes sense given the circumstances.
Both teams’ starting centers — Phoenix’s Jusuf Nurkic (suspension) and Memphis’ Zach Edey (concussion) — are out.
Nurkic is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game while Edey was putting up 10.5 boards per night in December.
Standing at 6-foor-11 with an alien-like wingspan, Durant’s rebound floor has always been high.
He’s averaged at least 6.4 rebounds per game since his sophomore season and has cleared this mark in three of his last seven games.
Durant has recorded double-digit boards in three of his last six games without Nurkic.
Picks made at 10:57 a.m. ET on 12/31/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.