The Philadelphia 76ers and Golden State Warriors battle in the Bay Area on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: The 76ers are red-hot and Joel Embiid is back to filling the basket. I expect Embiid to have a big night and am also taking a rare defensive prop on Tyrese Maxey.
Check out my 76ers vs. Warriors prop picks for Jan. 2.
76ers vs. Warriors prop picks
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Best Bet: Embiid over 28.5 points (-113)
Embiid missed yesterday’s game against the Sacramento Kings due to injury management and is officially listed as questionable tonight.
But load management has become synonymous with Philly’s centre, who said earlier this year that he may never play in a back-to-back again.
He should play tonight, and I’m bullish on a huge performance.
Embiid has cleared his point total in three straight games, including on Christmas when I backed him to go over 25.5 points against the Boston Celtics.
In the two games since then, he dropped 32 and 37 points against the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively.
This line is simply too low for a player who averaged north of 33 points in each of the last two seasons.
Embiid had an injury-riddled start to the season but is receiving heavy minutes again and seems to have his scoring touch back.
This is also a great matchup:
- Golden State has the third-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (37.9%), according to Cleaning the Glass.
- Embiid takes 51% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 96th percentile of all NBA players.
The Warriors are 3-point favourites as of 11:30 a.m. ET. This should be a close game where Embiid gets plenty of run.
Key stat: Embiid has scored 30-plus points in five of the last six games in which he played over 20 minutes.
Quick pick
Maxey over 1.5 steals (-127): Maxey is known for filling the basket, but not enough is made of his much-improved defence.
Philly’s point guard ranks second in the NBA in steals (2.1/game) and is coming off a five-steal night against the Kings.
He’s had at least one steal in every game this year, which gives us a solid floor to work with.
Maxey has had multiple steals in four of his last five games, with three-plus steals in three of those contests.
The Warriors aren’t necessarily a turnover-heavy team — ranking 14th in giveaways (14.4/game) — but this is more about the player than the matchup.
Picks made at 11:38 a.m. ET 01/02/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.