Avery Perri

Two red-hot teams battle in Sacramento on Thursday when the Kings host the Houston Rockets.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento is surging under interim head coach Doug Christie but I’ll still back Houston to cover an alternate spread. Player prop bets on DeMar DeRozan and Fred VanVleet round out this +340 wager.

Check out my Rocket vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 16.

Rocket vs. Kings predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #106422

Parlay: Rockets +10.5 + DeRozan under 19.5 points + VanVleet over 2.5 threes (+340)

Rockets +10.5 (-400): Sacramento’s season was in a tailspin before management made a bold coaching change.

The squad started 13-19 under Mike Brown, who was one season removed from bringing the Kings to the playoffs for the first time since 2006.

Replacing Brown seemed rash at the time, but it’s paid dividends so far.

Sacramento has won seven of its last eight and is sitting at .500 right before the midway point of the season. Still, I like Houston to cover this heavily teased spread.

• The Rockets are 13-6 straight up on the road this season.
  
• Houston has won five straight games and seven straight on the road.
  
• The Rockets have only lost by 11+ points three times this season (7.7%).

The Kings might be rolling but they’ve still only covered a -10.5 spread twice in their last 14 games.

SGP legs

DeRozan under 19.5 points (-122): DeRozan is having his best scoring month (23.1 PPG) of the season but you can chalk that up to volume.

Sacramento’s small forward is shooting 44.9% from the field and 35.7% from deep in January.

He is attempting 19.4 shots per game, which gives him a high floor as a scorer. But Houston is an incredibly tough matchup, and I can see him deferring to Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox.

The Rockets have the best mid-range defence (39.2%), according to Cleaning the Glass.

DeRozan takes 74% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 100th percentile for all NBA players.

VanVleet over 2.5 threes (+102): Sacramento’s 3-point defence was an issue under Brown, and it hasn’t gotten better under Christie.

The squad ranks 28th in opponent 3-point percentage on the season (38.5%) and 21st in January (38.2%).

VanVleet is shooting an abysmal 32.9% from deep this season, but he’s attempting 7.6 threes per game.

The former Toronto Raptor is also on a nice little heater, shooting above 40.0% from deep in three straight games, while clearing this line twice.

I’m hoping he can stay hot in a plus matchup.

Picks made at 11:24 a.m. ET 01/16/2025

The Los Angeles Lakers host the Miami Heat on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Lakers have lost three straight games but are in a good spot to right the ship against a shorthanded Heat squad. Back Los Angeles to win alongside prop bets on Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez at +320.

Check out my Heat vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 15.

Heat vs. Lakers predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #106341

Parlay: Lakers moneyline + Herro over 3.5 threes + Jaquez over 9.5 points (+320)

Lakers moneyline (-210): The Lakers lost consecutive road games before having a pair of contests postponed due to the Los Angeles wildfires.

They also lost in their return to action, against the San Antonio Spurs at Crypto.com Arena on Monday, 126-102.

But I’m confident L.A. can get back on its horse against an uninspiring Miami team.

Jimmy Butler remains suspended due to detrimental conduct, and Bam Adebayo is questionable with a back injury after missing the Heat’s previous game.

The Lakers are 12-6 at home this season and enter this contest with a clean bill of health. They’re also well rested, having played just one game since Jan. 7. The Heat, conversely, are wrapping up a taxing six-game West-Coast road trip.

SGP legs

Herro over 3.5 threes (-121): Herro has taken a massive step this year as a scorer, averaging a career-best 24.0 points per game. He’s doing most of his damage from deep.

• Miami’s shooting guard is averaging 3.9 threes/game (fourth-most in NBA).
  
• Herro is shooting 40.3% from deep this season.
  
• He’s cleared this mark in four of his last five games.

The Lakers rank 19th in opponent 3-point percentage (36.2%). They also give up the sixth-most 3s per game to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Herro shot 9-of-16 from deep — yes, he made nine 3s — against L.A. earlier this season.

Jaquez over 9.5 points (-345): Jaquez has been sharp in Butler’s absence. Check out his numbers over the last six games:

• 14.7 PPG
• 51.5 FG%
• 33.9 minutes per game

The sophomore small forward is making the most out of this short stint as a starter, and I want to tail him again tonight.

Jaquez takes 46% of his shots at the rim, which ranks in the 88th percentile of all NBA players, according to Cleaning the Glass.

The Lakers, meanwhile, have the second-worst rim defence (70.9 FG% allowed) in the league.

Picks made at 1:09 p.m. on 01/15/24.

The Toronto Raptors host the reigning champion Boston Celtics on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a heavy home underdog for good reason. That said, I’ll still back the Raptors to cover with some extra cushion. Player prop bets on Derrick White and Kristaps Porzingis round out this +300 SGP.

Check out my Raptors vs. Celtics same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 15.

Raptors vs. Celtics predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #106296

Parlay: Raptors +20 + White over 12.5 points + Porzingis over 1.5 threes (+300)

Raptors +20 (-220): The only thing Toronto is contending for this season is Cooper Flagg, but that doesn’t mean the squad has been uncompetitive.

• The Raptors are 22-17-1 ATS, the sixth-best mark in the NBA, despite owning a 9-31 record.
  
• That includes a 12-5-1 ATS record as home underdogs, which is the best of any team that’s played more than two games with that distinction.

The Raps have played the Celtics twice — both times in Boston — with drastically different results. First, they lost 126-123 in overtime and second, they were routed 125-71.

But Toronto was missing RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick and Jamal Shead in the latter contest. They’re all slated to play tonight.

Darko Rajakovic’s group has covered this number in six of its last seven games since that blowout loss in Boston.

SGP legs

White over 12.5 points (-132): White has just nine points in his last two games while shooting a combined 2-of-14 from the field. That’s ugly. But he’s poised to bounce back tonight.

Boston’s point guard is averaging 16.4 PPG on the season and has cleared this mark in both contests against the Raptors, scoring 16 and 18 points.

He’s an active shooter from deep, and that’s an area Toronto struggles to defend (more on that later).

The Raptors also allow the fourth-most points per game to opposing PGs, according to Fantasy Pros.

Porzingis over 1.5 threes (-220): Porzingis is on a nice run for the Celtics this month, averaging 19.2 PPG while playing north of 30 minutes a night.

He’s also been solid from beyond the arc in January:

• 2.2 threes/game
• 39.3 3PT%
• 1+ three in every game

The Raptors give up the fourth-most 3s per game (14.4) at the seventh-highest rate (37.0%). Porzingis is attempting 5.9 threes per game this season, which puts him in a good spot to cash this on volume alone.

Picks made at 10:39 a.m. ET 01/15/2025.

The present and the future clash when the Denver Nuggets host the San Antonio Spurs on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic is the best player on earth and Victor Wembanyama is up next. I have prop bets on both superstars in this +270 SGP, which also features Denver to win.

Check out my Spurs vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 3.

Spurs vs. Nuggets predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #105028

Parlay: Nuggets moneyline + Jokic over 1.5 threes + Wembanyama over 24.5 points (+270)

Nuggets moneyline (-215): Denver is beginning to find its form, which should worry the rest of the league.

• The Nuggets are 8-3 over their last 11 games, averaging 127.6 points per game.
  
• That includes a 4-1 record at Ball Arena with the only loss coming to the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers.
  
• The Jokic-led offence has put up 130-plus points in four straight games, winning each of its last three by 10+ points.

San Antonio is no longer a lottery team but I still don’t trust it against the league’s elite. Especially on the road.

The Spurs are 0-9 on the road against teams currently in a playoff spot.

SGP legs

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-182): Gone are the days when you could get this prop at a reasonable price.

Jokic has expanded his scoring bag by adding a lethal 3-point stroke to the arsenal. He’s making 2.2 threes a night at a stellar 49.2% clip.

The reigning MVP has been particularly trigger-happy since the start of December:

• 4.9 three-point attempts/game
• 2+ threes in 11/15 games

On the season, Jokic has cleared this mark in 20 of 29 games.

Wembayama over 24.5 points (-167): Wembanyama is living up to his alien moniker.

The 7-foot-4 sophomore is averaging 29.3 points in his last 10 games, clearing this total eight times.

Wemby has shot the lights out from deep during this stretch (3.7 makes at a 38.5% rate) and Denver allows the sixth-most 3s per game (14.1).

The Nuggets are also playing at a pace of 102.16 possessions per game — the fifth-fastest in basketball — meaning Wembanyama should get more looks than usual.

Back the burgeoning superstar in a solid matchup.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 01/03/2025