The PGA Tour’s West Coast Swing begins at The American Express in La Quinta, California.
The latest: This tournament has been known to produce long-shot winners, with amateur Nick Dunlap taking the crown at 250-to-1 last year. Sam Burns — who clocks in at +1,400 — is my best bet, but I’m also taking fliers on two guys well down the odds board.
Check out our The American Express picks for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on Jan. 16.
The American Express picks
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Best bet: Burns to win (+1,400) & top-20 finish (-110)
This tournament seems like it was made for Burns.
Players compete at three courses — La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course and Pete Dye Stadium Course — before a cut is made after 54 holes.
The final round is played at the Stadium Course, and bettors can be sure of a couple of things:
- The winner will have to make birdies: Each of the last 17 winners has had a score of -20 or better.
- Strong putting correlates to success: With so many birdie looks available, elite putters tend to rise to the top of the leaderboard.
Burns is one of the best putters on the planet. He also does most of his damage on Bermuda grass greens (which are featured here).
He had the fifth-best birdie rate last season (4.42) and ranked 14th in strokes gained: putting (+0.496).
The five-time PGA Tour winner also enters this event in strong form, with six straight top-15 finishes.
Key stat: Burns has a pair of T6s and a T11 in his last four starts at this event.
Quick picks
Hall to win (+4,000) & top-20 finish (+188): Harry Hall is on a heater — say that 10 times fast.
The 27-year-old Englishman has five straight top-15 finishes and is coming off back-to-back top-10s to start the season.
He’s one of the better putters in this field, which will be important to capitalize on birdie opportunities.
Speaking of birdies, Hall made the second-most per round last year (4.52) behind only Scottie Scheffler.
Suber to win (+15,000) top-40 finish (+225): Ever heard of Jackson Suber? Probably not. But I think there’s a good chance he’ll end up on people’s radar by the end of the season.
The PGA Tour rookie made a strong impression in his debut at the Sony Open last week, finishing T6 while gaining over a stroke putting and on approach.
Before that, Suber finished T9 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship.
The 25-year-old made 10 of his final 11 cuts on the KFT last year, finishing inside the top 25 six times (T3 or better twice).
I love his value to finish inside the top 40 this week and will sprinkle him to win based on the unpredictability of this event.
Golf picks made at 3:00 p.m. on 01/15/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.