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Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin props Jan 18: Odds and predictions for Penguins vs. Capitals

Enjoy it while you can, as Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin take the ice against each other again tonight.

The pregame narrative: Ovechkin is barreling toward Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record with the NHL-leading Washington Capitals. Crosby, meanwhile, is having another solid year as his Pittsburgh Penguins fight for a wild-card spot.

Check out our Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin props, odds and predictions for Jan. 18.

Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin props

Crosby props and best bet

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Crosby prop markets	Betting odds
Over 0.5 points	-215
Under 0.5 points	+163
To record 2+ points	+230
To record 3+ points	+800
To record a power-play point	+210
To score	+200
To score 2+ goals	+1,300
To score 3+ goals	+7,000
Over 2.5 shots	-118
Under 2.5 shots	-110

NHL odds as of 3:05 p.m. ET on 01/18/2024.

Best Bet: Under 0.5 points (+163)

Crosby is playing at just over a point-per-game pace this year with 48 points in 47 matchups. Even at 37 years old, you have to wonder where the Penguins would be without their captain leading the way.

But I’m looking to fade Sid tonight.

Pittsburgh has lost seven of its last nine games while averaging just 2.6 goals per game. His linemates, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust, aren’t exactly elite.

But you know what is elite? Washington’s goaltending.

Tonight, the Capitals are rolling with Vezina contender Logan Thompson.

He’s 20-2-3 with a 2.13 GAA (third in NHL) and .924 SV% (T-third in NHL).

Crosby has been held pointless in three of his last four games.

Ovechkin props and best bet

Ovechkin prop markets	Betting odds
Over 0.5 points	-200
Under 0.5 points	+163
To record 2+ points	+250
To record 3+ points	+900
To record a power-play point	+150
To score	+112
To score 2+ goals	+650
To score 3+ goals	+3,000
Over 3.5 shots	+115
Under 3.5 shots	-150

NHL odds as of 3:05 p.m. ET on 01/18/2024.

Best Bet: Ovechkin over 3.5 shots (+115)

Pittsburgh’s defence and goaltending have been awful this season and I expect Ovechkin to get plenty of chances.

The Pens are allowing the sixth-most chances (61.42) and fourth-most shots (30.69) against per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Ovechkin is 4-7 against this mark since returning from an injury on Dec. 28. But he’s also landed on exactly three shots five different times.

He’s consistently right around this number and gets a good enough matchup where I think he’ll go over the top.

Rockets vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 18: Back VanVleet, Sengun at +350

The Houston Rockets are heavy favourites over the Portland Trail Blazers in Saturday’s NBA nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Portland is a bad team but has a respectable ATS record as a home underdog. I’ll tease the Blazers up a few points while also backing Fred VanVleet and Alperen Sengun to produce.

Check out my Rockets vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 18.

Rockets vs. Trail Blazers predictions

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Parlay: Trail Blazers +16.5 + VanVleet over 2.5 threes + Sengun over 9.5 rebounds (+350)

Trail Blazers +16.5 (-220): Portland (13-27) is a bottom-feeder while Houston (27-13) sits second in the Western Conference.

The Rockets should win this game, no doubt, but I think this is enough cushion to feel safe with a young Blazers squad.

Portland is 9-7 ATS as a home underdog, losing those games by an average of 7.7 points.
The Blazers have lost three straight games by 20+ points but covered this number in 7/8 prior, winning four of those games outright.
Since Damian Lillard was traded, Portland is 4-2 against this number vs. Houston.

Houston has a stellar road record but has also only covered this number twice in its last 10 games. I expect a close game as the Rockets wrap up a three-game West-Coast road trip.

SGP legs

VanVleet over 2.5 threes (-118): One of the biggest issues with Portland is its perimeter defence. The squad allows the seventh-most 3s per game (14.0) at the third-highest rate (37.9%).

VanVleet has struggled from deep this season — owning a 32.9 3PT% — but is still attempting 7.6 threes per game.

He missed the Rockets’ last game for personal reasons but is not listed on today’s injury report. A little extra rest for the veteran shouldn’t hurt.

Also, FVV is shooting above 40.0% from deep in three straight games, clearing this line twice. I’m keen on playing this as a standalone wager.

Sengun over 9.5 rebounds (-177): Houston leads the league in rebounding rate and a lot of that has to do with Sengun.

The Turkish phenom is corralling 10.4 boards per night and has cleared this number in three of his last five games.

He has a plus matchup against Portland, which ranks 24th in rebounding rate (48.9%) and 29th in defensive rebound rate (67.2%).

Jerami Grant is questionable and Donovan Clingan is out tonight for the Blazers, which takes some size out of their lineup. Sengun should have plenty of opportunities to get to the double-digit mark.

Picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET 01/18/2025

Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Jan. 18: Back Cleveland to win, Edwards from deep at +325

The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Cleveland Cavaliers in a star-studded Saturday night matchup.

The pregame narrative: The Cavs pace the Eastern Conference and I’ll back them to beat a T-Wolves squad playing on a back-to-back. Prop bets on Anthony Edwards and Jarrett Allen round out this +325 wager.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 18.

Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves predictions

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Embed: #106655

Parlay: Cavaliers moneyline + Edwards over 2.5 threes + Allen under 12.5 points (+325)

Cavaliers moneyline (-235): The Cavs are coming off a 20-point loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but there are plenty of reasons to believe they’ll rebound tonight.

The Cavs have the best record (34-6) and net rating (+9.7) in the Eastern Conference.
Cleveland is 4-1 following a loss this season, winning three of those games by double digits.
Minnesota is 2-3 SU when playing on a back-to-back this year.

Kenny Atkinson has turned the Cavs into legitimate title contenders with an elite defence and strong offence. His team plays with the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA, while Minnesota ranks 27th.

With more rest, I expect Cleveland to dictate the pace of this game and pour it on a Minnesota team that was in New York less than 24 hours ago.

SGP legs

Edwards over 2.5 threes (-265): Edwards has put a miserable December behind him and is on a tear from deep to start 2025.

5.1 threes on 10.1 attempts/game (47.4%)
3+ threes in 7/9 games
5+ threes in 5/9 games

The dynamic shooting guard is coming off a 36-point night where he canned eight triples against the Knicks.

The one suspect part of Cleveland’s game is its perimeter defending, and Edwards should exploit that.

The Cavs rank 20th in opponent 3-point percentage (36.5%), though they do allow the 11th-fewest 3s per game (11.4).

But this bet seems safe strictly from a volume standpoint.

Allen under 12.5 points (-106): Evan Mobley is questionable with calf soreness. If he’s ruled out that should open up more looks for Allen, and you may see his point total rise a few ticks.

But either way, I’m happy to fade Cleveland’s big man.

Allen takes 72% of his shots at the rim and 26% of his shots in the “short mid-range” (shots from four to 14 feet), per Cleaning the Glass.

Minnesota has the ninth-best rim defence and fourth-best short mid-range defence. With Rudy Gobert in the paint, nothing should come easy.

Picks made at 11:47 a.m. ET 01/18/2025

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens predictions Jan. 18: Bet on Toronto, Matthews on Hockey Night in Canada

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens re-ignite their rivalry on Hockey Night in Canada.

The pregame narrative: This is uncharted territory for both teams. For the first time in a long time, Montreal is legitimately threatening for a playoff spot. Toronto, meanwhile, is leading the Atlantic Division. I’m taking the Maple Leafs to win and am backing Auston Matthews to score.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens predictions for Jan. 18.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens predictions

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Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-143)

I have to give Montreal its flowers before explaining why I’m backing Toronto.

Martin St. Louis’ squad has won eight of its last 10 games, beating teams like the Florida Panthers, Washington Capitals, and Dallas Stars.

During this stretch, it’s given up just 2.0 goals per game.

However, this is a matchup Toronto has dominated recently. The Leafs have won six of their last seven games against the Canadiens, with the only outlier being a 1-0 loss on opening night this season.

In that game, Sam Montembeault turned away 48 shots in a career performance.

It’s unclear who will start in goal for Montreal tonight with a back-to-back against the New York Rangers on deck tomorrow.

I believe it will be Montembeault since rookie Jakub Dobes played on Thursday night. Dobes has been spectacular while Montembeault owns an .888 SV% this month. Still, it’s something to keep an eye on.

Either way, Toronto has been one of the best teams in the NHL this season. I trust its large body of work over Montreal’s recent form.

Key stat: The Maple Leafs are 28-16-2 and have won five of their last six road games.

Quick picks

Matthews to score (-120): We might never know what’s been wrong with Matthews this season. But what I do know is he’s been firing on all cylinders since returning to the lineup on Jan. 4.

6 G, 5 A in 7 GP
Scored in 5/7 games

Toronto’s captain is coming off a heroic two-goal performance against the New Jersey Devils, scoring a pair of game-tying goals to force overtime.

Matthews had over 21 minutes of ice time and fired five shots on goal, which is an encouraging sign based on his previous injury history.

Assuming he’s fully healthy — which to some may be a leap — we’re getting a guy who scored 69 goals last season at a fair price.

Matthews is on a 58-goal pace this month, so I’m willing to make that leap.

NHL picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET on 01/18/25.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens predictions Jan. 18: Bet on Toronto, Matthews on Hockey Night in Canada

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens re-ignite their rivalry on Hockey Night in Canada.

The pregame narrative: This is uncharted territory for both teams. For the first time in a long time, Montreal is legitimately threatening for a playoff spot. Toronto, meanwhile, is leading the Atlantic Division. I’m taking the Maple Leafs to win and am backing Auston Matthews to score.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens predictions for Jan. 18.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens predictions

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Embed: #106651

Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-137)

I have to give Montreal its flowers before explaining why I’m backing Toronto.

Martin St. Louis’ squad has won eight of its last 10 games, beating teams like the Florida Panthers, Washington Capitals, and Dallas Stars.

During this stretch, it’s given up just 2.0 goals per game.

However, this is a matchup Toronto has dominated recently. The Leafs have won six of their last seven games against the Canadiens, with the only outlier being a 1-0 loss on opening night this season.

In that game, Sam Montembeault turned away 48 shots in a career performance.

It’s unclear who will start in goal for Montreal tonight with a back-to-back against the New York Rangers on deck tomorrow.

I believe it will be Montembeault since rookie Jakub Dobes played on Thursday night. Dobes has been spectacular while Montembeault owns an .888 SV% this month. Still, it’s something to keep an eye on.

Either way, Toronto has been one of the best teams in the NHL this season. I trust its large body of work over Montreal’s recent form.

Key stat: The Maple Leafs are 28-16-2 and have won five of their last six road games.

Quick picks

Matthews to score (-105): We might never know what’s been wrong with Matthews this season. But what I do know is he’s been firing on all cylinders since returning to the lineup on Jan. 4.

6 G, 5 A in 7 GP
Scored in 5/7 games

Toronto’s captain is coming off a heroic two-goal performance against the New Jersey Devils, scoring a pair of game-tying goals to force overtime.

Matthews had over 21 minutes of ice time and fired five shots on goal, which is an encouraging sign based on his previous injury history.

Assuming he’s fully healthy — which to some may be a leap — we’re getting a guy who scored 69 goals last season at basically even money.

Matthews is on a 58-goal pace this month, so I’m willing to make that leap.

NHL picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET on 01/18/25.

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UFC 311 predictions and best bet: Back Islam Makhachev and Umar Nurmagomedov in title fights

The first UFC pay-per-view card of the season is here — and it’s a big one.

The pre-fight narrative: Islam Makhachev defends his lightweight title against Renato Moicano, who stepped in as a late replacement for Arman Tsarukyan. In the co-main event, Umar Nurmagomedov and Merab Dvalishvili battle for the bantamweight throne.

Check out my UFC 311 predictions for Jan. 17

UFC 311 predictions overview

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UFC 311 predictions	Odds	Bet now ⬇️
Parlay: Makhachev to win by finish + Nurmagomedov to win	-136	Pick 1 + Pick 2

UFC picks made at 3:30 p.m. ET on 01/17/25.

Go to full UFC 311 betting markets.

UFC 311 predictions

Best Bet: Makhachev to win by finish + Nurmagovmedov to win (-136)

It will be around 9:00 a.m. in Dagestan when this card begins.

And you can be sure plenty of folks in the republic will be watching their prized fighters compete halfway around the world.

Khabib Nurmagomedov put Dagestan on the MMA map during his reign. Now his good friend (Makhachev) and cousin (Umar) are fighting for titles.

That’s nothing new for Makhachev, who has defended his lightweight championship three times after beating Charles Oliveira at UFC 280.

He beat Alexander Volkanovski twice and most recently submitted Dustin Poirier last June.

Tsarukyan would have posed an interesting test for Makhachev but the Armenian was forced to withdraw days before the fight with a back injury. Now, Moicano is thrown into the fire on short notice.

Makhachev has won six of his last seven fights via finish and all signs point to that happening again.

Moicano has just two career knockouts and poses no real threat on his feet. Makhachev is the best grappler in the division and should decisively ground and pound his opponent until a stoppage or submission opportunity arises.

Is Nurmagomedov next up?

Nurmagomedov gets his first crack at UFC gold on Saturday.

The 29-year-old enters this fight with a perfect 18-0 record, winning all six of his UFC fights in convincing fashion (three finishes, three unanimous decisions).

Dvalishvili is a beast and one of my personal favourites in the promotion — but I can’t help thinking the Georgian is in trouble.

Rumours are swirling that he’s dealing with a staph infection on one leg, which would be problematic against a wrestler of Nurmagomedov’s calibre.

Dvalishvili is on an 11-fight win streak of his own, but 10 of those came via decision.

He doesn’t have the finishing power to put out Nurmagomedov and is battling a man with a 100% takedown defence.

If this fight is contested on the ground, which it probably will be, I like the Dagestani’s chances of stifling his opponent.

Rams vs. Eagles divisional same-game parlay predictions: Back L.A. on alt spread, Williams to score at +300

Two running backs are primed to shine in Sunday’s divisional round game between the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles.

The pregame narrative: Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams have been tearing it up all season. I’m backing each of them in the prop market alongside Los Angeles on an alternate spread in this +300 SGP.

Check out my Rams vs. Eagles same-game parlay predictions for the game on Jan. 19.

Rams vs. Eagles same-game parlay predictions

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Embed: #106596

Parlay: Rams +10.5 + Williams anytime TD + Barkley over 89.5 rushing yards (+300)

Rams +10.5 (-225): It might seem awfully hard to bet against Philadelphia, which went on a 12-1 heater following its Week 5 bye.

That includes a 37-20 victory over the Rams, in Los Angeles, on Nov. 24.

But let’s not discount how good Sean McVay’s squad has been since that game:

L.A. has won six straight games with its starters playing, beating the Buffalo Bills (44-42) and the Minnesota Vikings (27-9).
The Rams have allowed 29 total points in their last three road games (all victories).

The worry here is that the Eagles will run all over the Rams like they did back in Week 12. But L.A.’s young defence has made major strides and will study that tape to make adjustments.

What I’m mainly bullish on is the Rams’ offence.

Matthew Stafford has been lights-out in the postseason since joining L.A. (5-1 record, 13:3 TD-to-INT ratio). He’s got a bevy of talent surrounding him and one of the best offensive minds in the league drawing up plays.

Keeping this within 10.5 points seems like a reasonable ask.

Other parlay picks

Williams anytime TD (+107): Williams is Barkley lite — except he’s a more consistent goal-line option.

The second-year back averaged 92.6 scrimmage yards this season and scored 16 touchdowns. He also turned 19 touches into 92 yards and a score against the Vikings last week.

Williams has scored in six of his last seven games dating back to the regular season. That includes one TD against the Eagles in a game where he rushed 16 times for 72 yards.

His 70 red zone carries are the most in the NFL — nine clear of Barkley — and it’s not like we have to worry about a Stafford tush push vulturing away looks.

Barkley over 89.5 rushing yards (-335): When I said Philly ran all over L.A. earlier this season, I wasn’t being hyperbolic.

Barkley exploded for 255 yards against the Rams, ripping off 70 and 72-yard touchdown runs. Even if you took those two plays away, he would still have cleared this total … by 23 yards.

I don’t expect Barkley to go nuclear again but this is a number he should comfortably clear.

The first-year Eagle went over 90 yards in 13 of 16 regular season games en route to a 2,000-yard season. He also had 119 yards in the wild-card round against the Green Bay Packers.

Picks made at 2:08 p.m. ET on 01/17/2025.

Ravens vs. Bills divisional same-game parlay predictions: Back Josh Allen and Derrick Henry at +350

The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens close the divisional round with a heavyweight showdown.

The pregame narrative: It wouldn’t surprise anyone if either team went on a Super Bowl run. With two MVP candidates clashing, I’ll bank a touchdown-plus with the home team. Bets on Josh Allen and Derrick Henry round out this +350 wager.

Check out my Ravens vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for the game on Jan. 19.

Ravens vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions

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Embed: #106573

Parlay: Bills +7.5 + Allen anytime TD + Henry over 89.5 rushing yards (+350)

Bills +7.5 (-335): Let’s address the elephant in the room: Buffalo was embarrassed by Baltimore earlier this season.

The Ravens secured a 35-10 blowout win, out-gaining the Bills by nearly 200 yards.

But that was way back in Week 4. And it was in Baltimore. Since then, Buffalo is 10-3, covering this number in each game.

The Bills were unstoppable at home this season and I expect them to put forth a much better showing with a trip to the AFC championship on the line.

Buffalo is 9-0 at Highmark Stadium this season, winning by an average of 17.4 points.
In those games, Josh Allen accounted for 24 touchdowns (19 passing, five rushing) with just four turnovers.

Allen has largely been a stud in the postseason — more on that in a moment — and I expect him to win this quarterback duel.

Other parlay picks

Allen anytime TD (-115): Allen hasn’t advanced any further than Jackson in the postseason, but his numbers are much, much better:

Allen (6-5 record): 23 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs, 4 INTs, 102.3 passer rating

Jackson (3-4 record): 8 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs, 6 INTs, 81.2 passer rating

I expect Allen to will the Bills to victory, and that starts with him taking charge in the red zone.

Buffalo’s QB has been a battering ram at the goal line this year, turning 18 carries within the 10-yard line to 10 touchdowns.

Allen found the end zone in six of his last eight regular season games and has great odds to score on Sunday.

Henry over 89.5 rushing yards (-167): Buffalo’s rush defence is suspect.

The unit allowed 4.5 yards per carry (tied for 22nd in the NFL) and gave up 199 yards to King Henry earlier this year.

Most teams didn’t put up gaudy rushing totals against the Bills, but that’s because they were often playing from behind.

I like Buffalo to win this game but believe Baltimore will keep it close.

A neutral game script for Henry should give him enough runway to clear this teased-down total.

Last week, he rumbled for 186 yards on 26 carries against the Pittsburgh Steelers. That marked the fourth straight game where he went over 135 rushing yards.

On the season, Henry is 11-7 against this line while averaging 117.0 rushing yards per game.

Picks made at 12:23 p.m. ET on 01/17/2025.

Thunder vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions Jan. 17: Back Gilgeous-Alexander, Thompson at +340

An injury-riddled Dallas Mavericks team hosts the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic remains sidelined and Kyrie Irving is questionable. Back OKC to win alongside props on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Klay Thompson and Daniel Gafford in this +340 wager.

Check out my Thunder vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 17.

Thunder vs. Mavericks predictions

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Embed: #106539

Parlay: Thunder moneyline + Gilgeous-Alexander over 24.5 points + Thompson over 2.5 threes + Gafford over 7.5 rebounds (+340)

Thunder moneyline (-305): Last night, the Thunder obliterated the Cleveland Cavaliers, 134-114, in OKC.

It was a dominant showing from the West’s top seed and I can see another rout on deck.

Dallas has lost three straight games and eight of its last 10.
The Mavericks are averaging 112.1 PPG without Doncic this season, compared to 118.7 when he plays.
OKC is a league-best 34-6 and has won 14 of its last 15 games.

There isn’t much more to talk about here. The Thunder are the better and healthier team and didn’t expend much energy in yesterday’s win.

SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander over 24.5 points (-770): I would never recommend betting this as a standalone but it gives our SGP a nice boost from +285 to +340.

The MVP frontrunner added to his case with a 40-point outburst last night in just 29 minutes of action.

It was another remarkably efficient scoring display in what’s been a killer month for the Canadian:

33.0 PPG
54.7% from the field and 97.0% from the line
25+ points in all eight games (10 straight dating back to Dec. 29)

SGA is leading the league in scoring and has gone over this mark in 35 of 40 games.

Thompson 3+ threes (-139): The Thunder boast the league’s best 3-point defence, but that didn’t stop Thompson from bagging five 3s when these teams last met.

The future Hall of Famer is in his twilight years but remains efficient from deep, averaging 3.0 makes on 7.9 attempts per night (37.9%).

Nearly 75% of his shots are from 3-point land, so I like this wager from a volume standpoint alone.

Thompson has hit at least two 3s in seven of eight games this month, clearing this total five times.

Gafford over 7.5 rebounds (-190): Two injuries work in this bet’s favour.

Dallas is without sophomore center Dereck Lively II (ankle), who played on a rotation with Gafford. But more importantly, OKC will be without Isaiah Hartenstein.

The Thunder’s Achilles heel last season was rebounding, and Hartenstein was acquired to fix that problem.

Hartenstein missed the first 15 games of the season with an injury. OKC ranked dead last in rebounding rate (46.3%) in that span.

Gafford hauled in 12 rebounds against the Thunder on Nov. 17 with Hartenstein sidelined. This is a smash play.

Picks made at 10:35 a.m. on 01/17/24.

Commanders vs. Lions divisional same-game parlay predictions: Back Gibbs and McLaurin at +300

The Detroit Lions host the Washington Commanders on Saturday night with a trip to the NFC championship game on the line.

The pregame narrative: Washington has exceeded all expectations this year and I expect it to keep things relatively close against a Detroit squad battling injuries. Prop bets on Jahmyr Gibbs and Terry McLaurin round out this +300 SGP.

Check out my Commanders vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions.

Commanders vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Commanders +14.5 + Gibbs over 69.5 rushing yards + McLaurin over 66.5 receiving yards (+300)

Commanders +14.5 (-240): I’m taking a page from my colleague Jordan Horrobin’s book with this leg. He backed the Commanders as +14.5 dogs in this week’s NFL parlay, and it’s easy to see why:

Washington is 11-6-1 ATS this season and 4-2-1 ATS as an underdog.
The Commanders have covered this number in every game following a 37-20 loss in Jayden Daniels’ Week 1 debut.
They enter this contest on a six-game winning streak while averaging 29.0 PPG.

Keeping up with Detroit’s offence is tough, but Washington should be up to the task.

Daniels provides a dual-threat ability that few quarterbacks in the NFL have. The rookie was lights out in his playoff debut, logging over 300 all-purpose yards with two touchdowns and zero turnovers.

And while the Lions posted a 15-2 record, they only covered this number in six games.

Other parlay picks

Gibbs over 69.5 rushing yards (-240): David Montgomery, somehow, will play on Saturday. That casts some doubt on Gibbs’ rushing ceiling, but this line should still be within reach.

The second-year back rumbled for over 100 yards in each game with Montgomery sidelined. In the 14 games prior, he averaged 74.8 yards at 5.6 yards per rush and cleared this mark eight times.

Even with an extra week of rest, I can’t see Montgomery returning to his regular volume right away.

Gibbs is younger, healthier, and more explosive. He’s in a good spot to feast against a defence allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (111.8) to RBs.

McLaurin over 66.5 receiving yards (-125): Wideouts have torched the Lions all season, averaging a league-best 185.1 receiving yards per game.

That’s mainly because Detroit has forced teams into a pass-centric offence. I think the Lions will win this game but see the Commanders keeping it close while playing catch-up.

McLaurin is the alpha dog in an unremarkable receiving room. His 23.2% target share ranks in the 90th percentile of all WRs.

The 29-year-old hauled in seven of a team-high 10 targets last week for 89 yards and a score.

He’s had at least 60 receiving yards in six of his last seven games, clearing this line four times. That gives us a good floor to work with.

Picks made at 3:45 p.m. ET on 01/16/2025.