The first UFC pay-per-view card of the season is here — and it’s a big one.
The pre-fight narrative: Islam Makhachev defends his lightweight title against Renato Moicano, who stepped in as a late replacement for Arman Tsarukyan. In the co-main event, Umar Nurmagomedov and Merab Dvalishvili battle for the bantamweight throne.
Check out my UFC 311 predictions for Jan. 17
UFC 311 predictions overview
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| UFC 311 predictions | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Parlay: Makhachev to win by finish + Nurmagomedov to win | -136 | Pick 1 + Pick 2 |
UFC picks made at 3:30 p.m. ET on 01/17/25.
Go to full UFC 311 betting markets.
UFC 311 predictions
Best Bet: Makhachev to win by finish + Nurmagovmedov to win (-136)
It will be around 9:00 a.m. in Dagestan when this card begins.
And you can be sure plenty of folks in the republic will be watching their prized fighters compete halfway around the world.
Khabib Nurmagomedov put Dagestan on the MMA map during his reign. Now his good friend (Makhachev) and cousin (Umar) are fighting for titles.
That’s nothing new for Makhachev, who has defended his lightweight championship three times after beating Charles Oliveira at UFC 280.
He beat Alexander Volkanovski twice and most recently submitted Dustin Poirier last June.
Tsarukyan would have posed an interesting test for Makhachev but the Armenian was forced to withdraw days before the fight with a back injury. Now, Moicano is thrown into the fire on short notice.
Makhachev has won six of his last seven fights via finish and all signs point to that happening again.
Moicano has just two career knockouts and poses no real threat on his feet. Makhachev is the best grappler in the division and should decisively ground and pound his opponent until a stoppage or submission opportunity arises.
Is Nurmagomedov next up?
Nurmagomedov gets his first crack at UFC gold on Saturday.
The 29-year-old enters this fight with a perfect 18-0 record, winning all six of his UFC fights in convincing fashion (three finishes, three unanimous decisions).
Dvalishvili is a beast and one of my personal favourites in the promotion — but I can’t help thinking the Georgian is in trouble.
Rumours are swirling that he’s dealing with a staph infection on one leg, which would be problematic against a wrestler of Nurmagomedov’s calibre.
Dvalishvili is on an 11-fight win streak of his own, but 10 of those came via decision.
He doesn’t have the finishing power to put out Nurmagomedov and is battling a man with a 100% takedown defence.
If this fight is contested on the ground, which it probably will be, I like the Dagestani’s chances of stifling his opponent.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.