The Houston Rockets are heavy favourites over the Portland Trail Blazers in Saturday’s NBA nightcap.
The pregame narrative: Portland is a bad team but has a respectable ATS record as a home underdog. I’ll tease the Blazers up a few points while also backing Fred VanVleet and Alperen Sengun to produce.
Check out my Rockets vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 18.
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers predictions
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Parlay: Trail Blazers +16.5 + VanVleet over 2.5 threes + Sengun over 9.5 rebounds (+350)
Trail Blazers +16.5 (-220): Portland (13-27) is a bottom-feeder while Houston (27-13) sits second in the Western Conference.
The Rockets should win this game, no doubt, but I think this is enough cushion to feel safe with a young Blazers squad.
- Portland is 9-7 ATS as a home underdog, losing those games by an average of 7.7 points.
- The Blazers have lost three straight games by 20+ points but covered this number in 7/8 prior, winning four of those games outright.
- Since Damian Lillard was traded, Portland is 4-2 against this number vs. Houston.
Houston has a stellar road record but has also only covered this number twice in its last 10 games. I expect a close game as the Rockets wrap up a three-game West-Coast road trip.
SGP legs
VanVleet over 2.5 threes (-118): One of the biggest issues with Portland is its perimeter defence. The squad allows the seventh-most 3s per game (14.0) at the third-highest rate (37.9%).
VanVleet has struggled from deep this season — owning a 32.9 3PT% — but is still attempting 7.6 threes per game.
He missed the Rockets’ last game for personal reasons but is not listed on today’s injury report. A little extra rest for the veteran shouldn’t hurt.
Also, FVV is shooting above 40.0% from deep in three straight games, clearing this line twice. I’m keen on playing this as a standalone wager.
Sengun over 9.5 rebounds (-177): Houston leads the league in rebounding rate and a lot of that has to do with Sengun.
The Turkish phenom is corralling 10.4 boards per night and has cleared this number in three of his last five games.
He has a plus matchup against Portland, which ranks 24th in rebounding rate (48.9%) and 29th in defensive rebound rate (67.2%).
Jerami Grant is questionable and Donovan Clingan is out tonight for the Blazers, which takes some size out of their lineup. Sengun should have plenty of opportunities to get to the double-digit mark.
Picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET 01/18/2025
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.