Avery Perri

The Toronto Raptors host the shorthanded Orlando Magic on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Paolo Banchero is back but on a minutes restriction. With three Magic starters sidelined, back Toronto to cover an alternate spread while fading Bachero’s point total. A prop bet on Gradey Dick rounds out this +290 wager.

Check out my Magic vs. Raptors SGP & predictions for Jan. 21.

Raptors vs. Magic SGP & predictions:

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Parlay: Raptors +5.5 + Banchero under 24.5 points + Dick over 1.5 threes (+290)

Raptors +5.5 (-200): This seems like a safe number to back Toronto at on Tuesday.

Jalen Suggs, Gogo Bitadze, and both Wagner brothers are out while Banchero hasn’t reached 30 minutes of playing time in a game since returning on Jan. 10.

Meanwhile, the Raptors will field a full squad except Immanuel Quickley, who has barely played this season and is currently dealing with a hip injury.

Toronto has been a profitable team ATS despite its horrible record. In other words, the Raps have mastered every tanking GM’s dream, with the “competitive defeat:”

• 10-32 record
• 23-18-1 ATS record
• 13-5-1 ATS record as a home underdog

Darko Rajakovic’s team has won two straight home games against quality opponents in the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors. I think another win is in the cards for Toronto, but will buy some points just to be safe.

SGP legs

Banchero under 24.5 points (-127): The Magic are in a tough spot. They need Banchero to produce but can’t be too aggressive with his workload.

The third-year forward has played five games this month and fallen under this number in four of them. He’s not playing a ton — just 27.6 minutes a night — and shooting an uninspiring 42.4% from the field.

And the Raptors won’t be an easy matchup for him.

Toronto owns the league’s ninth-best mid-range defence, according to Cleaning the Glass. Banchero took 43% of his shots from that area of the court last season, ranking in the 91st percentile of all NBA players.

Dick over 1.5 threes (-175): Orlando’s defence is elite, but I still like Dick to nab a couple of 3s.

• Dick went 0-for-5 from deep in his last outing on Jan. 17 but cleared this mark in his three games prior.
  
• He’s hit at least one 3-pointer in eight of nine games this month, going 6-3 against this line.

The Magic give up the fewest 3-pointers per game (11.1) while also allowing the 10th-highest 3-point rate (36.4%).

Teams don’t attempt many 3s against the Magic — but when they do, they’re cashing them.

Picks made at 11 a.m. ET on 01/21/2025.

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A trio of guards headline Tuesday’s best NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Jalen Brunson is rolling and in a great position to torch his cross-town rivals. Elsewhere, expect Tyrese Maxey to be active as a facilitator and Jordan Poole to light it up from deep.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 21.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Brunson over 26.5 points (-107)

When Brunson gets hot, watch out.

Every season, New York’s point guard seems to go on a heater that gets him into the MVP conversation. Check out the tear he’s been on to start 2025:

• 29.2 PPG
• 50.2 FG%
• 30+ points in four of the past five games

Brunson is coming off a 34-point outing against the Atlanta Hawks on Monday night. He’s blown by this mark in four of the past five games with the only outlier being a 26-point effort against the defensively stout Minnesota Timberwolves on Jan. 17.

And the Brooklyn Nets — Brunson’s opponent Tuesday — are anything but defensively responsible.

• Brooklyn sits 25th in defensive rating (116.7) and last in opponent field goal percentage (48.9%).
  
• They rank 28th in mid-range defence (45.3%), per Cleaning the Glass.
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• Brunson takes 49% of his shots from the mid-range, sitting in the 95th percentile for all NBA players.

My only concern with this wager is a Knicks blowout in which Brunson is pulled early.

Key stat: Brunson is averaging 34.6 PPG across his last five games.

Quick picks

Maxey over 6.5 assists (-106): Joel Embiid is out, again.

That should hamper Maxey’s output as a passer, as he’s averaging 6.6 assists with Embiid in the lineup and 5.5 without him.

But Maxey has cleared this mark in four of the past eight games without the big man, landing on exactly six assists twice. He also gets a nice matchup Tuesday against the Denver Nuggets. Denver is surrendering the third-most assists per game to point guards (10.07), according to Betting Pros.

Maxey had nine assists in his lone matchup against the Nuggets last season, though it is worth noting Embiid was in the lineup for that one.

Poole over 3.5 threes (+123): The Washington Wizards are a mess, but Poole is on a nice run.

Over the past 30 days, the shooting guard is averaging 4.7 threes on 11.1 attempts per game (42.1%). He’s cleared this mark in eight of 12 games.

Kyle Kuzma has been non-existent from deep this season (1.2 threes/game, 25.7 3PT%) and no other Wizard is averaging more than 2.0 threes per game.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ 36.6% 3-point defence ranks 23rd in the NBA.

Expect Poole to keep firing as the team’s only viable option.

Picks made at 11:16 a.m. ET on 01/21/2025.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are massive home favourites over the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: I’m shaving 5.5 points off OKC’s standard -17.5 line tonight. Prop bets on two Brooklyn Nets — Nic Claxton and D’Angelo Russell — round out this +390 wager.

Check out my Nets vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 19.

Nets vs. Thunder predictions

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Parlay: Thunder -12 + Claxton over 7.5 rebounds + Russell over 1.5 threes (+320)

Thunder -12 (-225): This game has blowout written all over it.

OKC is a juggernaut with a laser focus on the Larry O’Brien Trophy while Brooklyn is hoping for a bit of luck in this year’s draft lottery.

Take a look at how impressive the Thunder have been so far:

• 34-6 record
• 13-5-1 ATS record a home favourite
• +12.5 net rating (best in the NBA)

Brooklyn owns a fantastic 15-8-1 ATS record as a road underdog, so I’m trimming a few points off the spread. But the Nets are 25th in net rating and are on the last leg of a six-game West Coast road trip that’s gone terribly.

Fatigue should set in for a team that’s grossly outmatched.

SGP legs

Claxton over 7.5 rebounds (-103): The one flaw in OKC’s game is its rebounding. Isaiah Hartenstein was acquired to fix that problem but is out with an injury tonight.

The big man also missed the first 15 games of the season with an injury. In that span, the Thunder ranked dead last in rebounding rate (46.3%).

Claxton doesn’t have the biggest frame but at 6-foot-11 he’s a natural rebounder.

The sixth-year center is averaging 7.5 rebounds per game and is playing 28.0 minutes a night in January, which is the highest of any month this season.

He’s primed to have an above-average performance in a great matchup.

Russell over 1.5 threes (-230): Russell was acquired in a trade from the Los Angeles Lakers to start 2025 and is starting to find his stroke after a few games.

He’s shooting 9-for-18 from deep over his last three games with the Nets, clearing this total twice.

He most recently cashed five threes against the Lakers in a revenge game of sorts.

The Thunder own an elite perimeter defence but this should be an attainable number if Russell sticks to his 5.8 three-point attempts per game.

Picks made at 11:24 a.m. on 01/19/24.

The Battle of Los Angeles is renewed when the Clippers host the Lakers in primetime on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: The Clippers have dominated this fixture in recent years and have Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup. I’m backing them to win, Kawhi to score, and Austin Reaves to stuff the stat sheet in this +320 wager.

Check out my Lakers vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 19.

Lakers vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers moneyline + Leonard over 14.5 points + Reaves over 28.5 PRA (+320)

Clippers moneyline (-195): A trio of Clippers — James Harden, Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac — are listed as questionable. But each played on Thursday and the -4.5 line gives me confidence they’ll suit up tonight.

Still, it’s something worth monitoring.

The Clips have exceeded expectations this year and have thrived at the freshly built Intuit Dome. L.A. is 14-6 straight up at home and 9-2 ATS as a home favourite.

Shaving off a few points on the spread against a struggling Lakers squad makes sense to me.

The Clippers have also won seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams.

SGP legs

Leonard over 14.5 points (-215): Leonard is being treated with kid gloves right now, which makes sense considering his injury history.

He’s played no more than 24 minutes a night since making his season debut on Jan. 4 but is coming off a 24-point outing (on 8-of-11 shooting) against the Brooklyn Nets.

Kawhi has seen a minutes uptick in each game back so I’m hoping he gets into the high 20s tonight. But even if he doesn’t, this line should be attainable.

Leonard averaged 26.0 PPG against the Lakers last year on 53.7% shooting.

Reaves over 28.5 PRA (-129): Reaves is quickly becoming a special player.

The fourth-year shooting guard is coming off a 38-point night against the Brooklyn Nets, showing his ceiling as a scorer.

He’s averaging a career-best 18.5 PPG while also posting highs in rebounds (4.3) and assists (6.1).

That nets out to a 28.9 PRA which is right around this number. However, a slow start to the season is weighing that average down.

Reaves is averaging 20.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 7.1 assists (33.1 PRA) since returning from an injury on Dec. 12.

Picks made at 11:24 a.m. on 01/19/24.

Malik Monk and Victor Wembanyama headline Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: The Sacramento Kings are rolling with a new head coach and Monk has been at the forefront of their success. I expect him to fill the basket in a plus matchup and am also backing Wembanyama to continue wreaking havoc on defence.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 19.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Monk over 19.5 points (-118)

Sacramento is firing on all cylinders under Doug Christie and I want in.

• The Kings are 8-2 since Christie took over for Mike Brown on Dec. 27.
  
• In that span, they rank fourth in offensive rating (118.9) and eighth in pace (100.75 possessions per 48 minutes).

Monk has been a steady contributor all season and has hit another gear this month. He’s putting up 23.7 PPG in January after averaging just north of 16.0 PPG the two months prior.

Has Christie unlocked something in the eighth-year guard? We’ll need a larger sample size to make that declaration. But Monk is shooting the ball more frequently and more accurately, which is good enough for me.

And tonight he gets to play a Washington Wizards team which has gotten torched by guards all season.

The Wizards allow the most points per game to point guards and the fourth-most points per game to shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Monk has scored 20+ points in six of seven games this month.

Quick picks

Wembanyama over 4.5 steals and blocks (-117): Wembanyama’s scoring has plummeted this month but that hasn’t slowed him on the defensive end.

The 7-foot-4 phenom is living up to his alien moniker with a ridiculous 6.1 “stocks” (1.4 steals, 4.7 blocks) per night in January.

Wemby has cleared this total in six straight games and has 19 stocks (five steals, 14 blocks) in his last two outings.

This isn’t a great matchup. The Heat don’t turn the ball over much and give up the 11th-fewest blocks per game to centers. But I’ll go ahead and call Wembaynama’s defence matchup-proof.

Maxey over 27.5 points (-125): Surprise, surprise: Joel Embiid is back on the injured list.

That’s bad news for the Philadelphia 76ers but good news if you want to back Maxey. The Sixers point guard has been humming over his last six games, averaging 30.0 PPG and clearing this line each time.

He hasn’t been the most efficient but is taking a ton of shots and gets a great matchup.

The Milwaukee Bucks have consistently struggled to defend guards since acquiring Damian Lillard. They’re allowing the fourth most points per game to PGs this season.

Picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 01/19/2025.