The Detroit Lions host the Washington Commanders on Saturday night with a trip to the NFC championship game on the line.
The pregame narrative: Washington has exceeded all expectations this year and I expect it to keep things relatively close against a Detroit squad battling injuries. Prop bets on Jahmyr Gibbs and Terry McLaurin round out this +300 SGP.
Check out my Commanders vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions.
Commanders vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Commanders +14.5 + Gibbs over 69.5 rushing yards + McLaurin over 66.5 receiving yards (+300)
Commanders +14.5 (-240): I’m taking a page from my colleague Jordan Horrobin’s book with this leg. He backed the Commanders as +14.5 dogs in this week’s NFL parlay, and it’s easy to see why:
- Washington is 11-6-1 ATS this season and 4-2-1 ATS as an underdog.
- The Commanders have covered this number in every game following a 37-20 loss in Jayden Daniels’ Week 1 debut.
- They enter this contest on a six-game winning streak while averaging 29.0 PPG.
Keeping up with Detroit’s offence is tough, but Washington should be up to the task.
Daniels provides a dual-threat ability that few quarterbacks in the NFL have. The rookie was lights out in his playoff debut, logging over 300 all-purpose yards with two touchdowns and zero turnovers.
And while the Lions posted a 15-2 record, they only covered this number in six games.
Other parlay picks
Gibbs over 69.5 rushing yards (-240): David Montgomery, somehow, will play on Saturday. That casts some doubt on Gibbs’ rushing ceiling, but this line should still be within reach.
The second-year back rumbled for over 100 yards in each game with Montgomery sidelined. In the 14 games prior, he averaged 74.8 yards at 5.6 yards per rush and cleared this mark eight times.
Even with an extra week of rest, I can’t see Montgomery returning to his regular volume right away.
Gibbs is younger, healthier, and more explosive. He’s in a good spot to feast against a defence allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (111.8) to RBs.
McLaurin over 66.5 receiving yards (-125): Wideouts have torched the Lions all season, averaging a league-best 185.1 receiving yards per game.
That’s mainly because Detroit has forced teams into a pass-centric offence. I think the Lions will win this game but see the Commanders keeping it close while playing catch-up.
McLaurin is the alpha dog in an unremarkable receiving room. His 23.2% target share ranks in the 90th percentile of all WRs.
The 29-year-old hauled in seven of a team-high 10 targets last week for 89 yards and a score.
He’s had at least 60 receiving yards in six of his last seven games, clearing this line four times. That gives us a good floor to work with.
Picks made at 3:45 p.m. ET on 01/16/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.