We’re back to regularly scheduled programming with a nine-game Boxing Day NBA slate, starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
The pregame narrative: Jimmy Butler has demanded a trade request which puts Tyler Herro in a position to be the alpha dog on the Miami Heat. I’m expecting him to score and also have bets on Nikola Vucevic and DeAndre Ayton.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 26.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Herro over 23.5 points (-110)
Based on how Herro’s played this season, you could already say he is “the guy” in Miami.
- 23.9 points/game (team-high)
- 17.6 FGA/game (team-high)
- 40.3% 3-point percentage (career-best)
Butler gave the Heat’s front office some coal on Christmas by requesting a trade — he’s listed as doubtful to play tonight, for obvious reasons.
The small forward averaged 11.1 shots a night and that volume is likely going Herro’s way.
Miami is on the road against an Orlando Magic squad that’s ravaged by injuries. Moritz and Franz Wagner are out alongside Paolo Banchero but the team still ranks eighth in defensive rating this month.
Herro barely fell under this total with 22 points when he played the Magic on Dec. 21 but had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night (7-of-17).
The volume was still there, though, and this is a nice opportunity to get back on track.
Key stat: Herro has scored 23+ points in 15 of 27 starts.
Quick picks
Vucevic over 1.5 threes (-150): Vucevic has taken a page out of Nikola Jokic’s playbook by massively improving his 3-point percentage as a big man.
The Chicago Bulls center averages 2.1 makes on 4.7 attempts per night, an elite 45.2% clip. That’s after shooting 29.4% last season.
He’s cleared this mark in eight of his last 10 games and bagged multiples triples in both contests against the Atlanta Hawks earlier this year.
Atlanta allows the most 3s per game (15.9) at the second-highest rate (38.2%).
Ayton over 14.5 points (-108): Ayton has been a remarkably consistent but largely unimpressive player this season, averaging between 14.1 and 14.4 points per game every month.
He’s not putting up eye-popping numbers but is shooting the ball well — 61.5% in December, to be exact — and has a high floor as a scorer.
Tonight’s matchup against the Utah Jazz should be exploitable.
Utah allows the fourth-most points per game to opposing centers, according to Fantasy Pros, and the 11th-most points in the paint.
Picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 12/26/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.