The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors meet in a star-studded Christmas Day matchup.
The pregame narrative: Neither team has been playing their best basketball lately so I’ll instead turn to the over on a rather modest point total. Steph Curry, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves are also featured in this +335 SGP.
Check out my Lakers vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 25.
Lakers vs. Warriors predictions
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Parlay: Over 224.5 points + Curry over 3.5 threes + Davis over 24.5 points + Reaves over 19.5 PRA (+335)
Over 224.5 points (-115): These teams tend to play in track meets when they match up.
The over is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings between Los Angeles and Golden State with an average point total of 236.5.
All four games last year blew by this total with at least 238 points scored.
Golden State’s offensive productivity has fallen off a cliff after a 12-3 start to the season but so has its defence.
The Warriors are 20th in defensive rating during their current 3-10 stretch and recently gave up 140-plus points to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks.
Other SGP legs
Curry over 3.5 threes (-215): Curry is averaging 21.8 points per game which is his lowest mark since 2011-12, excluding the 2019-20 season where he played just five games.
But his 3-point volume is still sky-high and he’s canning triples at a solid rate.
- Curry is averaging 4.1 makes on 10.1 attempts per night (40.3%).
- He’s cleared this total in 14 of 23 starts and has 3+ threes in 20/23 games.
The Lakers rank 19th in 3-point defence (36.5%) and Curry averaged 6.0 threes in four games against L.A. last season, clearing this line three times.
It’s unlikely we’ll see a monster game from Curry but this teased-down total is still well within his range.
Davis over 24.5 points (-162): Davis has cooled off after a nuclear start to the season. He’s fallen under this number in three straight games.
That said, The Brow still averages 26.6 PPG and has cleared this total in 16 of 27 starts.
Golden State profiles to be a great matchup for Davis, who leads Los Angeles in points and field-goal attempts (18.4) per game.
The Warriors have the second-worst midrange defence (45.7%) in the NBA and Davis ranks in the 92nd percentile for mid-range shot frequency (47%), per Cleaning the Glass.
Reaves over 19.5 PRA (-435): I took Reaves over 24.5 PRA as one of my three Christmas Day prop bets and will shave a few counting stats off for safety here.
L.A.’s shooting guard has been buzzing since his return from injury earlier this month:
- 18.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 5.0 APG
- 25+ PRA in 4/5 games
- 20+ PRA in 5/5 games
Reaves is only shooting 44.1% from the floor and 34.3% from deep in that span but his volume is up and that’s nice to see.
There is room for improvement as he faces a Warriors team allowing the 11th-most points and 12th-most rebounds per game to SGs.
Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 12/24/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.