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Lakers vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Dec. 19: Bet on Austin Reaves, LeBron James at +410

The Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings close out Thursday’s loaded NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: LeBron James and Austin Reaves are the focus of this +410 same-game parlay, alongside the under on a teased-up game total.

Check out my Lakers vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 19.

Lakers vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: James over 1.5 threes + Reaves over 24.5 points/rebounds/assists + Under 240.5 points (+410)

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James over 1.5 threes (-159): LeBron went 3-for-6 from deep on Sunday after missing two games with a foot injury, which he anticipates will be “lingering” throughout the season.

But I won’t let that scare me off backing him at this price against a bad defence.

LeBron is taking 5.7 threes per game and is canning them at a respectable 36.5% rate.

He had a brutal stretch from Nov. 27 to Dec. 2 where he went 0-for-19, which really brought down that average. But he is 10-of-22 since and has averaged at least two 3s a game since joining Los Angeles in 2018.

The Kings have the second-highest opponent 3-point percentage (37.7%) in the NBA and LeBron hit four against them earlier this season.

SGP legs

Reaves over 24.5 PRA (-105): Los Angeles doesn’t have a “Big Three” but Reaves is integral to the team’s success.

The shooting guard is averaging 16.9 points, 3.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists a night (25.5 PRA).
Los Angeles is 2-3 without Reaves this season (103.4 PPG) and 12-9 with him (113.2 PPG).

Reaves smashed this total in both games since returning from injury, putting up 30 PRA against the Minnesota Timberwolves and 29 PRA against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Sacramento is giving up the second-most points to shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros, and Reaves has cleared this line in four straight games against his divisional rival.

He had 16 points, seven rebounds and six assists against the Kings earlier this year.

Under 240.5 points (-278): Taking the under on this teased-up total doubles our SGP’s payout from +205 to +410 thanks to some negative correlation.

And it’s not like I’m asking for crazy performances from James or Reaves on Thursday.

The Lakers have gone under this mark in 11 of their last 12 games with the exception being a 134-132 overtime loss to the Atlanta Hawks.

And even that game ended with 238 points in regulation.

The Kings have played in some barnburners lately but have still cashed this wager in 11 of their last 14 games.

Picks made at 3:08 p.m. on 12/18/24.

NFL Week 16 parlay picks: Back the Falcons to cover alt spread in Michael Penix Jr.’s debut

Two alternate spreads and an over/under bet make up my +350 NFL Week 16 parlay.

The pregame narrative: It’s Michael Penix Jr. time in Atlanta, and I expect the rookie to light up the New York Giants. Elsewhere, back the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Baltimore Ravens and fade offence in Kansas City.

Check out my NFL Week 16 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.

NFL Week 16 parlay picks

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Parlay: Falcons -6.5 + Steelers +10.5 + Texans/Chiefs under 41.5 points (+350)

Falcons -6.5 (-167): Not long ago, Kirk Cousins was swag surfing after throwing four touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Now, he’s on clipboard duty following a disastrous five-game stretch where he threw nine picks and just one touchdown.

The Falcons went 1-4 in those games but I trust Penix to get them back on track. Mostly because he’s playing the Giants, who are a legitimate disaster:

New York has lost nine straight games while going 1-8 ATS.
The Giants average the fewest points (14.9) and fourth-fewest yards (296.4) per game.
Brian Daboll hasn’t named a starter for Sunday but Tim Boyle seems likely after injuries to Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito.

Penix might be a rookie but this is the softest landing spot possible. He has a bevy of offensive weapons available with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts and should easily outscore New York.

Other parlay picks

Steelers +10.5 (-209): Pittsburgh is coming off its worst game of the year while Baltimore is coming off one of its best — but I still like the Steelers to cover a teased-up number against their divisional rival.

Mike Tomlin’s group is 8-1 against Baltimore since the 2020-21 season, with every game being decided by one score.

Lamar Jackson has never figured out the Steelers, owning a 66.7 passer rating and a 5:8 TD-to-INT ratio in seven games against them.

Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS and has covered this number in all but one of its games. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 3-11 ATS against this number.

Texans/Chiefs under 41.5 points (-110): Here is a list of teams who have failed to score 30 points in the NFL this season: Giants, Raiders, Patriots … Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is seemingly available despite being banged up toward the end of Sunday’s win over the Cleveland Browns. But that doesn’t change much.

If Carson Wentz plays, great, but I don’t trust KC’s offence to light up the scoreboard regardless.

The Chiefs have one of the league’s top defences and I expect them to give C.J. Stroud – who has a terrible track record on the road — plenty of trouble.

Houston is averaging just 21.9 points in Stroud’s 14 career road games and the Texans have a 10-4 unders record this season.

NFL picks made at 12:00 p.m. on 12/18/24.

NFL Week 16 parlay picks: Back the Falcons to cover alt spread in Michael Penix Jr.’s debut

Two alternate spreads and an over/under bet make up my +369 NFL Week 16 parlay.

The pregame narrative: It’s Michael Penix Jr. time in Atlanta, and I expect the rookie to light up the New York Giants. Elsewhere, back the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Baltimore Ravens and fade offence in Kansas City.

Check out my NFL Week 16 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.

NFL Week 16 parlay picks

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Parlay: Falcons -6.5 + Steelers +10.5 + Texans/Chiefs under 41.5 points (+369)

Falcons -6.5 (-152): Not long ago, Kirk Cousins was swag surfing after throwing four touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Now, he’s on clipboard duty following a disastrous five-game stretch where he threw nine picks and just one touchdown.

The Falcons went 1-4 in those games but I trust Penix to get them back on track. Mostly because he’s playing the Giants, who are a legitimate disaster:

New York has lost nine straight games while going 1-8 ATS.
The Giants average the fewest points (14.9) and fourth-fewest yards (296.4) per game.
Brian Daboll hasn’t named a starter for Sunday but Tim Boyle seems likely after injuries to Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito.

Penix might be a rookie but this is the softest landing spot possible. He has a bevy of offensive weapons available with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts and should easily outscore New York.

Other parlay picks

Steelers +10.5 (-215): Pittsburgh is coming off its worst game of the year while Baltimore is coming off one of its best — but I still like the Steelers to cover a teased-up number against their divisional rival.

Mike Tomlin’s group is 8-1 against Baltimore since the 2020-21 season, with every game being decided by one score.

Lamar Jackson has never figured out the Steelers, owning a 66.7 passer rating and a 5:8 TD-to-INT ratio in seven games against them.

Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS and has covered this number in all but one of its games. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 3-11 ATS against this number.

Texans/Chiefs under 41.5 points (-109): Here is a list of teams who have failed to score 30 points in the NFL this season: Giants, Raiders, Patriots … Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is seemingly available despite being banged up toward the end of Sunday’s win over the Cleveland Browns. But that doesn’t change much.

If Carson Wentz plays, great, but I don’t trust KC’s offence to light up the scoreboard regardless.

The Chiefs have one of the league’s top defences and I expect them to give C.J. Stroud – who has a terrible track record on the road — plenty of trouble.

Houston is averaging just 21.9 points in Stroud’s 14 career road games and the Texans have a 10-4 unders record this season.

NFL picks made at 12:00 p.m. on 12/18/24.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars Dec. 18: Back Dallas to win and Auston Matthews to score

The Toronto Maple Leafs head to the Lone Star State on Wednesday to take on the Dallas Stars.

The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner are slated to play together on Toronto’s top line tonight. I’m looking for the captain to score but expect Dallas to win at home.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars for Dec. 18.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars

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Best Bet: Stars to win (-129)

Toronto’s star-studded top line will draw eyeballs, but Dallas is in better shape to win this game.

The Stars are 13-3-0 at American Airlines Center this season, allowing just 2.00 goals per game.

That’s largely thanks to Jake Oettinger, who has won eight of his last nine home starts. The netminder has shut down some of the league’s top offences during this run — with the help of an elite defence, of course:

3-1 win vs. Capitals on Dec. 16
3-1 win vs. Jets on Dec. 1
5-3 win vs. Avalanche on Nov. 29

Oettinger ranks 13th in save percentage (.913) and seventh in goals allowed average (2.33) and plays behind a defence which allows seventh-fewest shots per game (26.9).

Joseph Woll — who is expected to start for the Maple Leafs tonight — has even better numbers with a 2.24 GAA (third) and .918 SV% (fifth).

But I’m banking on some regression tonight.

Toronto is allowing the 11th-most expected goals per 60 (3.05) while Dallas is generating the fourth-most expected goals per 60 (3.34), according to Natural Stat Trick.

At home, I think the Stars can apply enough pressure on the young goaltender to secure a win.

Key stat: Dallas’ +24 home goal differential is the second-best in the NHL.

Quick picks

Matthews to score (+115): I’ll take Matthews to score at plus money against just about any team, regardless of how well it plays defensively.

Remember, we’re talking about a guy who scored 69 goals last year.

Toronto’s captain is starting to look like himself after missing nine games due to injury. He’s scored five goals in his last eight games and has at least four shots in five straight.

Matthews’ 15.9 expected goals are the third-most in the NHL, behind only Nico Hischier (15.7) and Kirill Kaprizov (15.9), according to Money Puck.

Oettinger and Dallas will be tough to crack but I’ll ride with the perennial Rocket Richard contender tonight.

NHL picks made at 10:21 a.m. ET on 12/18/24.

Broncos vs. Chargers Week 16 TNF best bets and odds: Back Bo Nix and Denver ATS

Two AFC West teams trending in opposite directions meet in Week 16 on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Denver Broncos have won four straight while the Los Angeles Chargers have dropped three of their last four. Bet on the Broncos to cover and Bo Nix to clear his passing total.

Check out my Broncos vs. Chargers best bets for TNF on Dec. 19.

Broncos vs. Chargers best bets

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Best Bet: Broncos +3 (-120)

This seems like a no-brainer considering the way each team is playing.

Los Angeles’ offence was never elite but now looks rudderless. The Chargers have scored 17 points in three straight games and rank 30th in RBSDM.com’s offensive EPA per play since American Thankgiving.

The only thing separating them from a four-game losing streak is Kirk Cousins.

In Week 13, the Atlanta Falcons quarterback threw four interceptions in a game where his offence out-gained the Chargers 350-to-187.

Even with the boatload of turnovers, L.A. only managed to win 17-13.

J.K. Dobbins is back on the IR after suffering an MCL sprain and I don’t expect a backfield comprised of Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal to produce. L.A.’s receiving room — which has the third-highest drop rate in the NFL — isn’t trustworthy, either.

Then there’s Denver, which has been boatracing teams with rookie Nix at the helm.

The Broncos have won four straight games.

Over that stretch, they’re averaging 34.8 points and 329.5 yards per game.

They lost to the Chargers in Denver on Oct. 13 but are 6-2 since, covering this number in seven of those games.

And it’s not like SoFi Stadium is a tough venue to play in. I expect to see more orange in the stands than blue on Thursday.

Key stat: Denver is a league-best 11-3 ATS.

Quick pick

Nix over 222.5 passing yards (-118): Los Angeles’ defence is the reason its in the playoff hunt but the unit is starting to teeter.

Baker Mayfield just threw for 288 yards and four touchdowns, marking the third time in the last five games a quarterback has cleared this total.

Several key members of the Chargers’ secondary such as Cam Hart and Elijah Molten are also listed as questionable after missing practice on Monday.

That could be precautionary on a short week but is worth monitoring.

Nix went under this total last week but had blown by it in the three games before that, logging 294, 273 and 307 passing yards.

Denver’s RB room has problems of its own with Javonte Williams underproducing and Jaleel McLaughlin listed as questionable.

I like the rookie’s chances of having another big game.

Picks made at 3:48 p.m. ET 12/17/2024.

Broncos vs. Chargers Week 16 TNF best bets and odds: Back Bo Nix and Denver ATS

Two AFC West teams trending in opposite directions meet in Week 16 on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Denver Broncos have won four straight while the Los Angeles Chargers have dropped three of their last four. Bet on the Broncos to cover and Bo Nix to clear his passing total.

Check out my Broncos vs. Chargers best bets for TNF on Dec. 19.

Broncos vs. Chargers best bets

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Best Bet: Broncos +3 (-114)

This seems like a no-brainer considering the way each team is playing.

Los Angeles’ offence was never elite but now looks rudderless. The Chargers have scored 17 points in three straight games and rank 30th in RBSDM.com’s offensive EPA per play since American Thankgiving.

The only thing separating them from a four-game losing streak is Kirk Cousins.

In Week 13, the Atlanta Falcons quarterback threw four interceptions in a game where his offence out-gained the Chargers 350-to-187.

Even with the boatload of turnovers, L.A. only managed to win 17-13.

J.K. Dobbins is back on the IR after suffering an MCL sprain and I don’t expect a backfield comprised of Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal to produce. L.A.’s receiving room — which has the third-highest drop rate in the NFL — isn’t trustworthy, either.

Then there’s Denver, which has been boatracing teams with rookie Nix at the helm.

The Broncos have won four straight games.

Over that stretch, they’re averaging 34.8 points and 329.5 yards per game.

They lost to the Chargers in Denver on Oct. 13 but are 6-2 since, covering this number in seven of those games.

And it’s not like SoFi Stadium is a tough venue to play in. I expect to see more orange in the stands than blue on Thursday.

Key stat: Denver is a league-best 11-3 ATS.

Quick pick

Nix over 218.5 passing yards (-112): Los Angeles’ defence is the reason its in the playoff hunt but the unit is starting to teeter.

Baker Mayfield just threw for 288 yards and four touchdowns, marking the third time in the last five games a quarterback has cleared this total.

Several key members of the Chargers’ secondary such as Cam Hart and Elijah Molten are also listed as questionable after missing practice on Monday.

That could be precautionary on a short week but is worth monitoring.

Nix went under this total last week but had blown by it in the three games before that, logging 294, 273 and 307 passing yards.

Denver’s RB room has problems of its own with Javonte Williams underproducing and Jaleel McLaughlin listed as questionable.

I like the rookie’s chances of having another big game.

Picks made at 1:14 p.m. ET 12/17/2024.

Thunder vs. Bucks NBA Cup SGP predictions: Back Giannis, Wallace in championship game at +330

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks battle for the NBA Cup championship in Las Vegas on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Taking the under on a teased-up total seems reasonable with two elite defences on the court. That said, I also expect Giannis Antetokounmpo and Cason Wallace to produce as scorers.

Check out my Thunder vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions for the NBA Cup final on Dec. 17.

Thunder vs. Bucks predictions

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Parlay: Under 224.5 points + Antetokounmpo over 29.5 points + Wallace over 6.5 points (+330)

Under 224.5 points (-315): Milwaukee’s season-long defensive numbers don’t jump off the page but Doc Rivers’ team has clamped down.

Check out what the Bucks have done over their last 15 games:

12-3 record
110.0 defensive rating (8th in NBA)
44.3 opponent FG% (3rd in NBA)

The under is 7-8 in that span but four of Milwaukee’s last five games have fallen under this teased-up total.

Also, the Bucks’ last two games against top-five defensive teams have been rock fights.

They beat the Orlando Magic 114-109 on Dec. 10 and the Houston Rockets 101-100 on Nov. 18.

OKC leads the NBA in several key metrics such as defensive rating, opponent field goal percentage and opponent points per game.

I expect Mark Daigneault’s group — which owns a 14-11 under record — to make things difficult on the Bucks.

SGP legs

Antetokounmpo over 29.5 points (-139): Touting OKC’s defence and backing Giannis to score 30 may seem counterintuitive but I think I can have my cake and eat it too.

The Greek Freak is leading the league in points per game (32.7), scoring 30-plus in five straight and nine of his last 10.

The Thunder have the league’s best rim defence, according to Cleaning the Glass, but Giannis does a lot of damage at the charity stripe.

He’s averaging the second-most free throws (7.0) and most free-throw attempts (11.4) per game.

OKC commits the sixth-most personal fouls per game, which bodes well for this wager.

Wallace over 6.5 points (-177): The 2023 No. 10 overall pick certainly isn’t the biggest name on the Thunder but he’s carved out a starting role in recent weeks.

Wallace is averaging 9.3 points in December and has gone over this line in four of his last six games.

The Bucks have struggled to defend guards all season long. They’re giving up the 11th-most points and seventh-most 3s per game to SGs this season, according to Fantasy Pros.

Wallace has been attempting 5.0 threes a night this month and should see enough volume to go over this small total.

Picks made at 10:20 a.m. on 12/17/2024.

Bears vs. Vikings Week 15 same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Jefferson to have a huge game at +370

Justin Jefferson is primed for a monster game when the Minnesota Vikings host the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Chicago’s defence has completely unravelled and I expect Jefferson to get the ball early and often and find the end zone. Take the under on a teased-up total to round out this +375 ticket.

Check out my Bears vs. Vikings same-game parlay predictions for Monday Night Football’s Week 15 matchup.

Bears vs. Vikings same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Under 50.5 points + Jefferson over 82.5 yards + Jefferson to score (+375)

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Under 50.5 points (-265): This leg has everything to do with Chicago’s ineptitude.

The Bears are averaging the fewest yards (290.0) and ninth-fewest points (19.5) per game. They have only scored more than 20 points in regulation once since Week 5.

That was against the Vikings, in Chicago, in a 30-27 overtime barn burner.

But I can’t see that happening again. Chicago scored 10 points in the last 30 seconds of the game before Minnesota eventually won on a walk-off field goal.

Since then, the Bears have been held to 33 points and 463 yards in two games.

Minnesota’s defence is elite and Caleb Williams looks lost thanks to an absolute mess of a coaching situation this year.

Unders are 8-5 in Vikings games this year and I expect the Bears to look lifeless on Monday night. The main reason I’m backing the under on a teased-up total is that it boosts this parlay from +180 to +370 due to negative correlation.

Other parlay picks

Jefferson over 82.5 yards (-115): Jefferson had a signature game last weekend, hauling in all seven of his targets for 132 yards and two scores.

The game before that, he caught seven of nine passes for 99 yards.

Chicago’s is 0-7 since its Week 7 bye and the defence has cratered.

The Bears have allowed 259.2 passing yards per game in that span, which would be the third-most of any team extrapolated over the full season.
Chicago ranks 28th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback since Week 8.

Jefferson had a quiet outing against them in Week 12 (two catches, 27 yards) but he has recorded 80-plus receiving yards in 10 of his last 12 and I expect him to right the ship.

Jefferson to score (-152): Piggybacking on the last play, I like Jefferson to find the end zone.

He snapped a six-game scoreless streak last week but had scored in five of six games before that. Overall he’s 5-7 against this mark but should probably have a lot more touchdowns.

Jefferson has the fifth-most red-zone targets in the NFL (17) and has the most catches of 20-plus yards (23).

Picks made at 3:10 p.m. on 12/14/24.

Packers vs. Seahawks Week 15 SNF best bet: Bet on Zach Charbonnet in the receiving game

The Seattle Seahawks host the Green Bay Packers in a Sunday Night Football game with massive playoff implications.

The pregame narrative: The Seahawks need a win to stay ahead of the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West while the Packers aim to solidify their place as one of the conference’s top wild-card teams. I like Zach Charbonnet to be active in the receiving game.

Check out my Packers vs. Seahawks best bet for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 15.

Packers vs. Seahawks best bet

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Best Bet: Charbonnet over 29.5 receiving yards (-118)

Kenneth Walker III is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game after missing a full week of practice. If he can’t play, which seems likely, Charbonnet should feast.

Seattle’s RB2 took the lead role last weekend and exploded for 134 rushing yards and 59 receiving.

He was relatively quiet the few weeks before but has been a solid pass-catcher all season. Check out his numbers across 13 games:

2.7 receptions and 3.3 targets/game
20.3 receiving yards/game
25+ receiving yards five times

The second-year product out of UCLA has only cleared this line in three of 13 contests but we have to consider Walker’s workload.

Walker averages 3.8 catches, 4.5 targets, and 27.1 receiving yards per game. Those looks will be going Charbonnet’s way, who logged an 80% snap count last week with Walker sidelined.

Charbonnet averaged 35.3 receiving yards and cleared this total twice in three games without Walker this year. I like his chances of staying hot in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Green Bay allows the fourth-most receiving yards per game to RBs (43.5), per CBS Sports.

Picks made at 1:57 p.m. ET 12/14/2024.

Packers vs. Seahawks Week 15 SNF prop picks: Bet on RBs Zach Charbonnet, Josh Jacobs

The Seattle Seahawks host the Green Bay Packers in a Sunday Night Football game with massive playoff implications.

The pregame narrative: The Seahawks need a win to stay ahead of the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West while the Packers aim to solidify their place as one of the conference’s top wild-card teams. I like Zach Charbonnet to be active in the receiving game and Josh Jacobs to have a big workload.

Check out my Packers vs. Seahawks prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 15.

Packers vs. Seahawks prop picks

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Best Bet: Charbonnet over 29.5 receiving yards (-107)

Kenneth Walker III is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game after missing a full week of practice. If he can’t play, which seems likely, Charbonnet should feast.

Seattle’s RB2 took the lead role last weekend and exploded for 134 rushing yards and 59 receiving.

He was relatively quiet the few weeks before but has been a solid pass-catcher all season. Check out his numbers across 13 games:

2.7 receptions and 3.3 targets/game
20.3 receiving yards/game
25+ receiving yards five times

The second-year product out of UCLA has only cleared this line in three of 13 contests but we have to consider Walker’s workload.

Walker averages 3.8 catches, 4.5 targets, and 27.1 receiving yards per game. Those looks will be going Charbonnet’s way, who logged an 80% snap count last week with Walker sidelined.

Charbonnet averaged 35.3 receiving yards and cleared this total twice in three games without Walker this year. I like his chances of staying hot in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Green Bay allows the fourth-most receiving yards per game to RBs (43.5), per CBS Sports.

Quick pick

Jacobs over 18.5 rushing attempts (-113): The Packers have been feeding Jacobs recently and it’s been working.

Green Bay’s bell-cow back has logged 18-plus carries in four straight games, totalling 291 yards and eight touchdowns.

Seattle’s defence gives up the 10th-fewest passing yards per game and ranks ninth in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.

But the group is much more susceptible on the ground, allowing the 12th-most rushing yards while ranking 16th in defensive EPA per rush.

Matt LaFleur isn’t shy to give Jacobs a heavy workload and I think Sunday will be no different. I also can’t picture Seattle blowing out Green Bay, who has only lost by more than five points once this year.

A neutral or favourable game script would certainly help Jacobs’ case.

Picks made at 1:57 p.m. ET 12/14/2024.