Two alternate spreads and an over/under bet make up my +350 NFL Week 16 parlay.
The pregame narrative: It’s Michael Penix Jr. time in Atlanta, and I expect the rookie to light up the New York Giants. Elsewhere, back the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Baltimore Ravens and fade offence in Kansas City.
Check out my NFL Week 16 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.
NFL Week 16 parlay picks
Go to full NFL Week 16 betting markets.
Parlay: Falcons -6.5 + Steelers +10.5 + Texans/Chiefs under 41.5 points (+350)
Falcons -6.5 (-167): Not long ago, Kirk Cousins was swag surfing after throwing four touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Now, he’s on clipboard duty following a disastrous five-game stretch where he threw nine picks and just one touchdown.
The Falcons went 1-4 in those games but I trust Penix to get them back on track. Mostly because he’s playing the Giants, who are a legitimate disaster:
- New York has lost nine straight games while going 1-8 ATS.
- The Giants average the fewest points (14.9) and fourth-fewest yards (296.4) per game.
- Brian Daboll hasn’t named a starter for Sunday but Tim Boyle seems likely after injuries to Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito.
Penix might be a rookie but this is the softest landing spot possible. He has a bevy of offensive weapons available with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts and should easily outscore New York.
Other parlay picks
Steelers +10.5 (-209): Pittsburgh is coming off its worst game of the year while Baltimore is coming off one of its best — but I still like the Steelers to cover a teased-up number against their divisional rival.
Mike Tomlin’s group is 8-1 against Baltimore since the 2020-21 season, with every game being decided by one score.
Lamar Jackson has never figured out the Steelers, owning a 66.7 passer rating and a 5:8 TD-to-INT ratio in seven games against them.
Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS and has covered this number in all but one of its games. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 3-11 ATS against this number.
Texans/Chiefs under 41.5 points (-110): Here is a list of teams who have failed to score 30 points in the NFL this season: Giants, Raiders, Patriots … Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes is seemingly available despite being banged up toward the end of Sunday’s win over the Cleveland Browns. But that doesn’t change much.
If Carson Wentz plays, great, but I don’t trust KC’s offence to light up the scoreboard regardless.
The Chiefs have one of the league’s top defences and I expect them to give C.J. Stroud – who has a terrible track record on the road — plenty of trouble.
Houston is averaging just 21.9 points in Stroud’s 14 career road games and the Texans have a 10-4 unders record this season.
NFL picks made at 12:00 p.m. on 12/18/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.