Avery Perri

Two of the league’s best defensive teams meet in Oklahoma City for Saturday’s NBA Cup semifinal.

The pregame narrative: The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder play suffocating brands of basketball, which has me fading Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Fred VanVleet while backing Houston on an alt spread.

Check out my Rockets vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 14.

Rockets vs. Thunder predictions

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Parlay: Rockets +9.5 + Gilgeous-Alexander under 2.5 threes + VanVleet under 6.5 assists (+270)

Rockets +9.5 (-205): Ime Udoka has the Rockets playing some serious basketball.

Houston is 17-8 with the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. Oklahoma City ranks first and that makes me think this will be a rock fight.

The Rockets have the fourth-best ATS record (16-9) in the league, which includes a 5-2 ATS record as an underdog.

OKC did beat Houston by 19 points at home on Nov. 19 but that seemed to be a wakeup call.

Since then, the Rockets are 12-4 and have covered this number in every game. That includes a win over the Thunder in Houston on Dec. 1.

I expect a close, defensively-minded game with both teams healthy.

SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander under 2.5 threes (-190): Gilgeous-Alexander is taking more 3s than ever before but I still want to fade him tonight.

• The Canadian guard is attempting 6.3 threes per game after putting up 3.6 last season.
  
• SGA is making 2.1 threes a night and has fallen under this mark in 15/24 starts (62.5%).

He did drain 3-of-7 against the Rockets earlier this month but went 1-of-2 against them earlier in the season. I expect SGA to be more focused on doing damage from the midrange.

Houston gives up the third-fewest 3s per game (11.8) at the fifth-lowest rate (34.0%).

VanVleet under 6.5 assists (-205): I mentioned earlier that OKC owned the best net rating in basketball. Unsurprisingly, it also gives up the fourth-fewest assists per game (24.3).

VanVleet is a capable passer, averaging 5.9 assists on the season. But he’s gone under this teased-up mark in 14 of 23 games, including both against the Thunder.

He recorded just five total assists in those games and has now gone under this mark in five straight games versus OKC.

I don’t see why things would be any different tonight.

Picks made at 10:28 a.m. on 12/14/24.

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I’ve got three prop bets from Saturday’s NBA Cup semifinal games.

The pregame narrative: The first matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks should feature plenty of offence. Look for Damian Lillard and Dyson Daniels to produce before fading the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Jalen Williams against the Houston Rockets.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 14.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Lillard over 3.5 threes (-106)

This game has “Dame Time” written all over it.

The Hawks are off to an improbable 14-12 start after an awful 2023-24 season. But they’re still a mediocre defensive team — 18th in defensive rating — that cannot defend the 3-point line.

Atlanta allows the most 3s per game (15.9) at the highest rate (38.2%).

Lillard faced off against the Hawks on Dec. 4 and canned five triples in a losing effort. That was part of a five-game stretch where he made at least four threes each time out.

Milwaukee’s point guard has gone under this mark in two straight but only attempted five threes (2-of-5) against the Orlando Magic in Tuesday’s quarterfinal match.

The Hawks allow the 10th-fewest paint points per game which should make life tougher for Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Greek Freak will still get his shots up but I wouldn’t be surprised if he deferred to Lillard as the alpha dog in tonight’s matchup.

Key stat: Lillard is shooting 43.5% from deep in three games against Atlanta since joining the Bucks.

Quick picks

Daniels over 11.5 points (-109): The one problem with Lillard these days is his defence. Milwaukee’s efficiency on that end has taken a nosedive since he was acquired for Jrue Holiday.

Point guards and shooting guards have been feasting against the Bucks, as Milwaukee allows the most and 10th-most points to them on a nightly basis, per Fantasy Pros.

I don’t want to back Trae Young, whose scoring is down in favour of monstrous assist numbers.

But I do like Daniels’ chances of clearing this very modest total.

The first-year Hawk is averaging a career-best 13.5 points per game and has cleared this line in two of his last five games, coming within a basket of topping it in the other three.

Atlanta plays at the third-fastest pace in the NBA so I expect Daniels to get plenty of looks in a game with a 229.0 over/under.

Williams under 5.5 rebounds (-110): This is a nightmare matchup for Williams as the Rockets own the best rebounding rate in basketball (52.6%).

OKC’s power forward has cleared this line in three straight but fell under it in the three games prior.

That includes a five-rebound outing against the Rockets on Dec. 1.

Isaiah Hartenstein is the Thunder’s best rebounder and should be the most active on the glass against a rabid group of Rockets.

Williams is averaging 5.3 rebounds per game with Hartenstein in the lineup compared to 6.6 rebounds per game when he was sidelined.

He also fell under this line against the Rockets on Nov. 8.

Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 12/14/2024.

The San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers provide NBA fans with Friday’s nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Neither team is trustworthy on the moneyline, so I’m taking the over on a teased-down total alongside prop bets on Victor Wembanyama and Jerami Grant.

Check out my Spurs vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 13.

Spurs vs. Trail Blazers predictions

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Parlay: Over 219.5 points + Wembanyama over 24.5 points + Grant over 12.5 points (+265)

Over 219.5 points (-195): Wembanyama is the odds-on favourite to win the Defensive Player of the Year but his teammates aren’t pulling their weight.

San Antonio is 19th in defensive rating and has gotten shelled in December.

• The Spurs are allowing 124.8 PPG this month. They gave up 140 and 139 points to the Sacramento Kings and Chicago Bulls, respectively, last week.
  
• The over on this total is 4-1 in San Antonio’s last five games and 7-2 in its last nine.

Portland sits 29th in offensive rating, so you would think this would be a nice spot for that trend to reverse.

But the 28th-ranked New Orleans Pelicans just put 116 points up against the Spurs on Sunday in a game that blew by this total.

Eight straight games between these teams have had 220-plus points.

SGP legs

Wembanyama over 24.5 points (-107): Wemby just eked by this line his last time out, scoring 25 points on 9-of-16 shooting against the Pelicans.

He’s averaging 28.9 points in his last 10 games and is 7-3 against this number.

The game before that stretch was against Portland, when Wembanyama netted just 12 points on 4-of-13 shooting. It was one of his worst performances of the year and I don’t expect that to be replicated.

Portland has the sixth-worst 3-point defence in the league (37.2%) and Wembanyama has been scoring from beyond the arc, shooting 40.5% on 11.1 attempts in his last 10 games.

At 7-foot-4, Wembanyama can also do damage in the paint and I expect him to fill the basket from all over the court.

Grant over 12.5 points (-240): Grant is coming off his worst game of the season, scoring just three points against the Los Angeles Lakers while shooting 1-of-12 from the field.

But the veteran small forward has been reliable against this number and has a solid matchup to get right.

He’s averaging 15.3 points per game and put up 21 against the Spurs earlier this season.

San Antonio has the 28th-ranked midrange defence (38.5%) and 20th-ranked 3-point defence (35.2%), according to Cleaning the Glass, and Grant takes 71% of his shots from those areas of the court.

Picks made at 12:30 p.m. on 12/13/24.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves host a shorthanded Los Angeles Lakers team on Friday the 13th.

The pregame narrative: LeBron James is sidelined, which is a scary prospect for Los Angeles’ chances of winning. I expect Anthony Edwards to cook from beyond the arc and like Austin Reaves to stuff the stat sheet if he can play.

Check out my Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks for Dec. 13.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks

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Best Bet: Edwards over 3.5 threes (-143)

This is a steep but fair price to pay given the player and circumstances.

Edwards has been one of the league’s best 3-point shooters this year. He’s averaging 4.5 threes per game on 10.5 attempts, which ranks second and fourth among all players.

You rarely find a player with that type of volume and accuracy from deep, and that partially explains why Edwards is -143 to clear this number

He’s gone over this mark in 18 of 23 games (78.2%), which far exceeds the 58.9% implied probability of this wager.

And it’s not like Los Angeles is a great team at defending the arc.

The Lakers allow the seventh-most 3-pointers per game (14.0) at the fifth-highest rate (37.2%).

Edwards went 1-for-5 from deep against the Lakers in a blowout win earlier this month but also went 5-for-13 against them on opening night.

Key stat: Edwards has cleared this 3-point total in five of his last six games.

Quick pick

Reaves over 23.5 PRA (-120): Reaves hasn’t played since Nov. 29 and is listed as questionable as of Friday’s 10:30 a.m. ET injury report.

But if he does suit up, I like his chances of smashing this number.

Los Angeles’ shooting guard is averaging a career-best 16.7 points per game to pair with 3.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists (24.7 PRA).

But those numbers went way up last year when LeBron was sidelined:

• Reaves averaged 19.5 points, 5.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds (29.4 PRA) in 11 games without LeBron in 2023-24.
  
• He was 8-3 against this number in those games.

Reaves cleared this total in his lone game against Minnesota this year and in three of his last five dating back to last season.

Picks made at 10:22 a.m. ET 12/13/2024.

The Toronto Raptors are taking their 7-18 record to South Beach for a meeting with the Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: Scottie Barnes is out and Miami is rolling. Back the Heat to cover an alternate spread alongside prop bets on Tyler Herro and Jakob Poeltl.

Check out my Raptors vs. Heat same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 12.

Raptors vs. Heat predictions

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Parlay: Heat -6.5 + Herro over 3.5 threes + Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (+310)

Heat -6.5 (-210): Toronto owns the second-best ATS record in the league (17-5) but I want to fade it against a surging Miami squad.

The Heat have won three straight games against the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns and Cleveland Cavaliers. All were at home and all were by at least nine points.

Overall, Miami is 7-3 in its last 10 and has covered the spread six times. That includes a 10-point win over the Raptors in Miami on Nov. 29.

Barnes played in that game but is out again after averaging 21.1 points, 8.7 rebounds and 8.0 assists since returning from an orbital bone fracture.

The Raps went 2-9 with him sidelined and I expect them to struggle again tonight.

SGP legs

Herro over 21.5 points (-205): I love Herro’s chances of clearing this teased-down total.

The sharpshooting guard is averaging 24.2 points on 47.7% shooting and has already torched the Raptors twice.

He put up 31 and 23 points against Toronto shooting a combined 10-of-22 from beyond the arc.

That type of 3-point production has come to be expected from Herro, who is shooting 42.2% on 9.9 attempts per game.

This is a line Herro has cleared in five of his last seven games.

Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (-167): Poeltl is having his best season as a pro, averaging career highs in points (15.9) and rebounds (11.6).

• Poeltl’s 11.6 rebounds/game are the fifth-most in the NBA.
  
• Toronto’s centre has had 10+ rebounds in 17/24 games.

Poeltl has been stuffing the stat sheet and will have more opportunities with Barnes sidelined. He has covered this number in three straight games with Barnes out, putting up 15, 12 and 18 rebounds.

On the season he is 5-3 against this line with Barnes out.

The Heat are a below-average team on the glass (19th in rebounding rate) so I expect Poeltl to clean up.

Picks made at 12:31 p.m. on 12/12/24.

The Sacramento Kings take on the injury-riddled New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

The pregame narrative: Brandon Ingram is the latest Pelican to go down and will be sidelined indefinitely after suffering an ankle injury on Dec. 7. I expect Sacramento to win but am backing Trey Murphy and Yves Missi to produce.

Check out my Kings vs. Pelicans same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 12.

Kings vs. Pelicans predictions

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Parlay: Kings moneyline + Murphy over 2.5 threes + Missi over 9.5 rebounds (+310)

Kings moneyline (-245): Ingram was basically the only Pelican to stay healthy this year but now he’ll be joining Zion Williamson, Jose Alvarado and Jordan Hawkins on the bench.

The small forward was averaging 22.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game but that didn’t manifest itself in many wins.

The Pelicans are 5-20 with just one win in their last 10 games.

Sacramento hasn’t been great this season (12-13 record) but is coming off consecutive wins where it scored 140-plus points.

The Kings’ entire starting five is healthy and that should be enough to take down a Pelicans team with no depth to speak of.

SGP legs

Murphy over 2.5 threes (-225): Murphy had a tough November after missing the first 10 games of the season but is beginning to find his stroke.

• November (7 GP): 29.9 3PT%, 1-6 against this line
• December (5 GP): 40.0 3PT%, 5-0 against this line

An uptick in production is nice but it’s good to know Murphy was coming close even when he fell short of this line. The fourth-year shooting guard has nabbed at least two 3s in every game this season.

Sacramento has the second-worst opponent 3-point defence (37.7%) in the NBA.

Missi over 9.5 rebounds (-125): It looks like New Orleans found something with the 2024 No. 21 pick.

Missi has been thrust into the starting role and has been thriving, averaging 14.0 points and 10.6 rebounds in his last eight games.

The Baylor product has cleared this line in three of his last four, logging 12-plus boards in each of those games.

Sacramento is good but not great on the glass (12th in rebound rate) and I think Missi can continue to produce in his increased role.

Picks made at 8:59 a.m. on 12/12/24.