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NBA parlay picks Dec. 11: Back Warriors to win, Brunson to score at +295

One bet from each of Wednesday’s NBA Cup quarterfinal games forms this +295 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The Golden State Warriors have won 15 straight against the Houston Rockets and I don’t see that streak ending tonight. Elsewhere, back Jalen Brunson to fill the basket against the Atlanta Hawks

Check out the full +295 NBA parlay picks for Dec. 11.

NBA parlay picks

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Parlay: Warriors moneyline + Brunson over 26.5 points (+295)

Warriors moneyline (+110): The last time the Rockets beat the Warriors was on Feb. 20, 2020.

You know, back before COVID and when James Harden and Russell Westbrook were still on the team.

It’s been a while and I can’t see a reversal of fortune tonight. Golden State finds a way whenever it plays Houston and has already logged a pair of wins over the Rockets this season with Curry sidelined.

The Warriors’ sharpshooter is back in the mix tonight and that’s obviously a boon.

It’s worth noting these teams are trending in opposite directions. Golden State is 2-6 in its last eight while Houston is 5-3.

But I can’t overlook this dominant head-to-head history and will role with the Warriors tonight.

Other parlay pick

Brunson over 26.5 points (-112): Brunson’s scoring has taken a dip with Karl-Anthony Towns in the fold but that was to be expected. It also doesn’t mean the all-star point guard has lost his touch:

2023-24 (77 games): 28.7 PPG, 21.4 FGA, 47.9% shooting
2024-25 (24 games): 25.2 PPG, 17.3 FGA, 49.6% shooting

New York’s frontman has sacrificed a bit of volume but is still shooting nearly 50.0% from the field. He’s not always the go-to guy but can still put up huge numbers with seven 30-point games in 24 starts.

And this feels like a game Brunson should take over.

The Hawks have the seventh-worst midrange defence (43.8%) and Brunson ranks in the 92nd percentile for midrange shooting frequency (45.0%), per Cleaning the Glass.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. on 12/11/2024.

Warriors vs. Rockets same-game parlay predictions Dec. 11: Back Golden State but fade Steph Curry in NBA Cup

The Golden State Warriors look to extend their dominance over the Houston Rockets to the NBA Cup on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Golden State has won 15 straight against Houston and I don’t see that streak ending tonight. Backing Alperen Sengun and fading Steph Curry on teased lines brings this SGP to +390 thanks to some negative correlation.

Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 11.

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions

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Parlay: Warriors moneyline + Curry under 5.5 threes + Sengun over 18.5 points (+380)

Warriors moneyline (+108): The last time the Rockets beat the Warriors was on Feb. 20, 2020.

You know, back before COVID and when James Harden and Russell Westbrook were still on the team.

It’s been a while and I can’t see a reversal of fortune tonight. Golden State finds a way whenever it plays Houston and has already logged a pair of wins over the Rockets this season with Curry sidelined.

The Warriors’ sharpshooter is back in the mix tonight and that’s obviously a boon.

It’s worth noting these teams are trending in opposite directions. Golden State is 2-6 in its last eight while Houston is 5-3.

But I can’t overlook this dominant head-to-head history and will role with the Warriors tonight.

SGP legs

Curry under 5.5 threes (-335): Curry is the greatest shooter of all time but this is a huge ask against a great defence.

The veteran point guard is averaging 4.2 threes on 10.0 attempts — which is still elite — but those are his lowest marks in the last five seasons.

Curry has gone under 5.5 threes in 15 of 18 starts and now faces a team with the fifth-best 3-point defence (34.1%) in the NBA.

He can still go 5-for-10 from deep, have a great night, and cash this under.

Sengun over 18.5 points (-215): Sengun is officially listed as questionable with knee soreness but he hasn’t missed a game this season so I’m not too worried.

The fourth-year centre is averaging 18.5 points on 47.3% shooting, which are solid numbers but down a tick from last season.

Golden State owns the second-worst mid-range defence (45.3%) in the NBA while Sengun ranks in the 87th percentile for midrange shot frequency (43.0%), according to Cleaning the Glass.

Sengun has cleared this total in three of his last four home games.

Picks made at 10:03 a.m. on 12/11/24.

Hawks vs. Knicks same-game parlay predictions Dec. 11: Back Brunson in NBA Cup quarterfinal

The New York Knicks host the Atlanta Hawks in the NBA Cup quarterfinals on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta has been rolling and has already beaten New York once this season. In this +300 SGP, I like the Hawks to cover an alt spread alongside Jalen Brunson and Dyson Daniels prop bets.

Check out my Hawks vs. Knicks same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 11.

Hawks vs. Knicks predictions

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Parlay: Brunson over 26.5 points + Hawks +10.5 + Daniels over 0.5 threes (+300)

Brunson over 26.5 points (-115): Brunson’s scoring has taken a dip with Karl-Anthony Towns in the fold but that was to be expected. It also doesn’t mean the all-star point guard has lost his touch:

2023-24 (77 games): 28.7 PPG, 21.4 FGA, 47.9% shooting
2024-25 (24 games): 25.2 PPG, 17.3 FGA, 49.6% shooting

New York’s frontman has sacrificed a bit of volume but is still shooting nearly 50.0% from the field. He’s not always the go-to guy but can still put up huge numbers with seven 30-point games in 24 starts.

And this feels like a game Brunson should take over.

The Hawks have the seventh-worst midrange defence (43.8%) and Brunson ranks in the 92nd percentile for midrange shooting frequency (45.0%), per Cleaning the Glass.

SGP legs

Hawks +10.5 (-167): There are some key names to monitor on the Hawks’ injury report.

Trae Young and De’Andre Hunter are both listed as probable, while Jalen Johnson (shoulder) is questionable.

The Hawks are coming off their worst loss of the season, a 141-111 thrashing by the Denver Nuggets, but had won six straight before then.

That includes a pair of wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers alongside wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks.

The Knicks are also rolling but they haven’t faced the same level of competition.

New York is 11-4 in its last 15 (7-8 against this line) but only one of those wins was against a non-play-in team, the Paolo Banchero-less Orlando Magic.

Daniels over 0.5 threes (-286): New York’s 3-point defence has been atrocious and Daniels is finding his stroke from deep.

The third-year shooting guard is 4-for-4 against this line in December, shooting 35.7%.

Daniels wasn’t quite as accurate in November but still went over this line in 11-of-15 games. On the whole, he has cleared this in 13 of his last 14.

New York is giving up the sixth-most 3s per game (14.1) at the 11th-highest clip (36.8%).

Picks made at 9:18 a.m. on 12/11/24.

Rams vs. 49ers Week 15 TNF best bets and odds: Take the over and back George Kittle

The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers begin Week 15 with a huge NFC West showdown.

The pregame narrative: I expect both teams to empty the offensive playbook with playoff aspirations on the line. Back Los Angeles to clear its team total and take the over on George Kittle’s receiving prop.

Check out my Rams vs. 49ers best bets for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 12.

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Best Bet: Kittle over 56.5 receiving yards (-120)

This line seems a tad low.

Kittle erupted for 151 yards on six receptions last week and has cleared this mark in seven of his last eight games. The one outlier was a seven-yard game, in a full-blown blizzard, against the Buffalo Bills.

Here are his per-week averages on the season if we exclude that contest:

79.3 yards per game
4+ catches in 9/10 games
5+ targets in 8/10 games
8-2 against this line

It’s worth noting this has been a tough matchup for Kittle. He’s gone under this mark in five straight games against Los Angeles while averaging just 30.6 yards per game.

But I expect him to be active out of necessity.

Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk are out, and Deebo Samuel seems to have lost a step. Kittle is the sure-handed alpha-dog on this offence and Kyle Shanahan should do everything to get him the ball.

The Rams are also much better at defending the run than the pass, in spite of an Aaron Donald-sized hole on the line.

Key stat: Los Angeles allows the ninth-most passing yards per game and ranks 27th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.

Quick pick

Rams over 23.5 points (-118): Los Angeles scoring at will would be great for our Kittle pick from a game script standpoint — and who’s to say that can’t happen?

The Rams went toe-to-toe with Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 14, scoring 44 points in a nail-biting win.

Matthew Stafford has looked great, while Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams remain one of the toughest trios to defend in the NFL.

San Francisco just bottled up the Chicago Bears, but is that saying much?

Before that, it had allowed 35 and 38 points to the Bills and Green Bay Packers. Seven of the Niners’ 13 opponents have cleared this total, including the Rams in September.

Picks made at 1:32 p.m. ET 12/10/2024.

Rams vs. 49ers Week 15 TNF best bets and odds: Take the over and back George Kittle

The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers begin Week 15 with a huge NFC West showdown.

The pregame narrative: I expect both teams to empty the offensive playbook with playoff aspirations on the line. Back Los Angeles to clear its team total and take the over on George Kittle’s receiving prop.

Check out my Rams vs. 49ers best bets for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 12.

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Best Bet: Kittle over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)

This line seems a tad low.

Kittle erupted for 151 yards on six receptions last week and has cleared this mark in seven of his last eight games. The one outlier was a seven-yard game, in a full-blown blizzard, against the Buffalo Bills.

Here are his per-week averages on the season if we exclude that contest:

79.3 yards per game
4+ catches in 9/10 games
5+ targets in 8/10 games
8-2 against this line

It’s worth noting this has been a tough matchup for Kittle. He’s gone under this mark in five straight games against Los Angeles while averaging just 30.6 yards per game.

But I expect him to be active out of necessity.

Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk are out, and Deebo Samuel seems to have lost a step. Kittle is the sure-handed alpha-dog on this offence and Kyle Shanahan should do everything to get him the ball.

The Rams are also much better at defending the run than the pass, in spite of an Aaron Donald-sized hole on the line.

Key stat: Los Angeles allows the ninth-most passing yards per game and ranks 27th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.

Quick pick

Rams over 23.5 points (-112): Los Angeles scoring at will would be great for our Kittle pick from a game script standpoint — and who’s to say that can’t happen?

The Rams went toe-to-toe with Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 14, scoring 44 points in a nail-biting win.

Matthew Stafford has looked great, while Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams remain one of the toughest trios to defend in the NFL.

San Francisco just bottled up the Chicago Bears, but is that saying much?

Before that, it had allowed 35 and 38 points to the Bills and Green Bay Packers. Seven of the Niners’ 13 opponents have cleared this total, including the Rams in September.

Picks made at 1:32 p.m. ET 12/10/2024.

Best NBA props Dec. 10: Back Jalen Suggs, Kyrie Irving in NBA Cup quarterfinals

I’ve got one prop bet from each of Tuesday’s NBA Cup quarterfinal games.

The pregame narrative: Jalen Suggs should take control of the shorthanded Orlando Magic offence against the Milwaukee Bucks. Later, Kyrie Irving is my pick to clear a modest point total against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 10.

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Best bet: Suggs over 20.5 points (-118)

All the stars are aligning for Suggs to have a monster night.

Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are out, which has thrust the point guard into a leading role. Those two averaged a combined 53.4 points per game for the Magic and neither has a concrete timeline to return.

When Orlando was fully healthy, Suggs was the definitive No. 3 guy. Now he’s the guy and goes up against a Bucks team that is awful at defending point guards.

Milwaukee is allowing 28.3 points per game to PGs, which is the most in the NBA, according to Fantasy Pros.
Last year, Milwaukee allowed 25.9 PPG to PGs, the third-most in basketball.
The Bucks are also allowing the third-most 3s per game to PGs (3.6) and Suggs has attempted 38 threes in his last four games.

Damian Lillard is a bonafide bucket with a Hall of Fame resume, but his defence isn’t anything special.

Suggs is the only player outside of Banchero and Wagner to be averaging north of 10.0 field goal attempts per game, and those numbers are going to go way up.

He dropped 26 points on 8-of-18 shooting against the Phoenix Suns on Sunday and had 22 the game before that (with Wagner in the lineup).

Key stat: Point guards are averaging 32.2 points against Milwaukee in the last seven days.

Quick picks

Irving over 21.5 points (-120): Luka Doncic is back in the lineup, which will naturally take some opportunities away from Irving.

But I still expect Dallas’ point guard to go over this line.

With Doncic playing, Irving is coming off 29 and 25-point outings while shooting north of 62.0% from the field in both games.

To be fair, those outings were against the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards. Things won’t come as easily tonight against the defensively elite Thunder, but that would also explain why this line is so low.

Irving has cleared this mark in 10 of 16 games with Doncic in the 2024-25 season, landing on exactly 21 points once.

Picks made at 12:53 p.m. ET on 12/10/2024.

Best NBA props Dec. 10: Back Jalen Suggs, Kyrie Irving in NBA Cup quarterfinals

I’ve got one prop bet from each of Tuesday’s NBA Cup quarterfinal games.

The pregame narrative: Jalen Suggs should take control of the shorthanded Orlando Magic offence against the Milwaukee Bucks. Later, Kyrie Irving is my pick to clear a modest point total against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 10.

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Best bet: Suggs over 20.5 points (-122)

All the stars are aligning for Suggs to have a monster night.

Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are out, which has thrust the point guard into a leading role. Those two averaged a combined 53.4 points per game for the Magic and neither has a concrete timeline to return.

When Orlando was fully healthy, Suggs was the definitive No. 3 guy. Now he’s the guy and goes up against a Bucks team that is awful at defending point guards.

Milwaukee is allowing 28.3 points per game to PGs, which is the most in the NBA, according to Fantasy Pros.
Last year, Milwaukee allowed 25.9 PPG to PGs, the third-most in basketball.
The Bucks are also allowing the third-most 3s per game to PGs (3.6) and Suggs has attempted 38 threes in his last four games.

Damian Lillard is a bonafide bucket with a Hall of Fame resume, but his defence isn’t anything special.

Suggs is the only player outside of Banchero and Wagner to be averaging north of 10.0 field goal attempts per game, and those numbers are going to go way up.

He dropped 26 points on 8-of-18 shooting against the Phoenix Suns on Sunday and had 22 the game before that (with Wagner in the lineup).

Key stat: Point guards are averaging 32.2 points against Milwaukee in the last seven days.

Quick picks

Irving over 21.5 points (-121): Luka Doncic is back in the lineup, which will naturally take some opportunities away from Irving.

But I still expect Dallas’ point guard to go over this line.

With Doncic playing, Irving is coming off 29 and 25-point outings while shooting north of 62.0% from the field in both games.

To be fair, those outings were against the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards. Things won’t come as easily tonight against the defensively elite Thunder, but that would also explain why this line is so low.

Irving has cleared this mark in 10 of 16 games with Doncic in the 2024-25 season, landing on exactly 21 points once.

Picks made at 12:02 p.m. ET on 12/10/2024.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Devils Dec. 10: Take the under, back John Tavares to record a point

The Toronto Maple Leafs head to New Jersey to take on the Devils and their old coach, Sheldon Keefe.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and New Jersey both sit second in their respective divisions thanks to strong defence and elite goaltending. Take the under on Tuesday and bet on John Tavares to notch a point.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Devils for Dec. 10.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Devils

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Best Bet: Under 6 goals (+100)

Toronto lost 5-2 on Saturday to the Pittsburgh Penguins, but I’ll view that as a blip on that radar.

Two of those goals came with an empty net, and another two were on the power play. The Maple Leafs have only given up 20 goals at even strength since Nov. 1, which is the fewest in the NHL.

It shouldn’t be a surprise, then, that Toronto is going under this number often:

Under 6 goals is 10-4-2 in Maple Leafs games since Nov. 1.
Only two of those games had 7+ goals in regulation (both on the road).

The Maple Leafs are on the road again tonight but I still trust them to keep things tidy against a surging Devils squad. Joseph Woll started on Saturday, meaning Anthony Stolarz will likely get the nod tonight.

The first-year Leaf has exceeded all expectations so far. He ranks fourth in save percentage (.924) and third in goals-against average (2.22) in the NHL.

On the other end is Jakob Markstrom, who has immediately turned New Jersey into a Stanley Cup contender.

The Swede has a 2.51 GAA and has turned away 55 of the 58 shots faced this month (.948 SV%).

Key stat: The under on this total is 5-1-1 in Stolarz’s last seven starts.

Quick pick

Tavares to record a point (-143): This is a steep price to pay but Tavares has been rolling and I want in.

The veteran centre has nine points in his last 10 games, cashing this bet seven times.

He’s been aggressive with the puck, logging 28 shots in that span, and still gets prime opportunities alongside William Nylander on the second line — while skating with the top power-play unit.

This isn’t a great matchup for Tavares but he’s been remarkably consistent this year and has found ways to get involved against other strong defensive teams.

Tavares has a point in 17 of 26 games (65.3%).

NHL picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 12/10/24.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Devils Dec. 10: Take the under, back John Tavares to record a point

The Toronto Maple Leafs head to New Jersey to take on the Devils and their old coach, Sheldon Keefe.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and New Jersey both sit second in their respective divisions thanks to strong defence and elite goaltending. Take the under on Tuesday and bet on John Tavares to notch a point.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Devils for Dec. 10.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Devils

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Best Bet: Under 6.5 goals (-124)

Toronto lost 5-2 on Saturday to the Pittsburgh Penguins, but I’ll view that as a blip on that radar.

Two of those goals came with an empty net, and another two were on the power play. The Maple Leafs have only given up 20 goals at even strength since Nov. 1, which is the fewest in the NHL.

It shouldn’t be a surprise, then, that Toronto is going under this number often:

Under 6.5 goals is 12-4 in Maple Leafs games since Nov. 1.
Only two of those games had 7+ goals in regulation (both on the road).

The Maple Leafs are on the road again tonight but I still trust them to keep things tidy against a surging Devils squad. Joseph Woll started on Saturday, meaning Anthony Stolarz will likely get the nod tonight.

The first-year Leaf has exceeded all expectations so far. He ranks fourth in save percentage (.924) and third in goals-against average (2.22) in the NHL.

On the other end is Jakob Markstrom, who has immediately turned New Jersey into a Stanley Cup contender.

The Swede has a 2.51 GAA and has turned away 55 of the 58 shots faced this month (.948 SV%).

Key stat: The under on this total is 6-1 in Stolarz’s last seven starts.

Quick pick

Tavares to record a point (-143): This is a steep price to pay but Tavares has been rolling and I want in.

The veteran centre has nine points in his last 10 games, cashing this bet seven times.

He’s been aggressive with the puck, logging 28 shots in that span, and still gets prime opportunities alongside William Nylander on the second line — while skating with the top power-play unit.

This isn’t a great matchup for Tavares but he’s been remarkably consistent this year and has found ways to get involved against other strong defensive teams.

Tavares has a point in 17 of 26 games (65.3%).

NHL picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 12/10/24.

Top NFL Week 14 TD picks: Back Pickens and Evans to score on Sunday

Mike Evans and George Pickens headline this week’s touchdown picks.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are fighting for their respective divisions and I expect both teams’ top wideout to produce. Elsewhere, I like Tyrone Tracy Jr. to score for a second consecutive game.

Check out the best NFL Week 14 TD picks for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 14 TD picks

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Best bet: Evans anytime TD (-106)

There were some concerns Evans might not play this week after missing back-to-back practices with a calf injury.

But the veteran wideout was back on the field Friday, which is a strong indication he’ll suit up for Sunday’s bout against the Las Vegas Raiders.

And Tampa Bay desperately needs him in the mix. Evans returned to form last weekend against the New York Giants, hauling in eight of 12 targets for 118 yards and a score.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1863334751500661083

No one has consistently found the end zone like Evans over the last decade. He has 101 touchdowns since the 2014-15 season and has 20 in 26 games since Baker Mayfield joined the Bucs last season.

Sunday’s meeting against Las Vegas presents a golden opportunity for Evans to add to that total.

The Raiders have allowed 29.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.

Key stat: Las Vegas has allowed 13 passing touchdowns in its last five games and has the third-worst dropback EPA per play in that span, per RBSDM.com.

Quick picks

Pickens anytime TD (+100): If last week was anything to go by, Sunday’s matchup in Pittsburgh could be a shootout.

The Steelers secured a 44-38 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals while the Cleveland Browns lost a 41-32 thriller to the Denver Broncos.

Pickens was held to just four catches and 48 yards when these teams met a few weeks ago. But that game was contested in a blizzard, and Pittsburgh attempted 34 rushes to just 21 passes.

The Steelers have the second-highest rush rate in football (51.21%) but that’s still a massive outlier.

Cleveland’s secondary is mediocre at best, and Pickens should see a much higher volume of targets — especially in the red zone.

Pickens’ 16 red zone targets are tied for the fifth-most in the NFL.

Tracy anytime TD (+110): The Giants have to start scoring touchdowns at some point, right?

New York averages a league-low 15.3 points per game, so backing any player on that roster to score can be daunting.

But Tracy has been the team’s best rushing option and has a grade-A matchup.

The New Orleans Saints rank 30th in defensive EPA per rush and 31st in rush success rate. They’re also tied for allowing the sixth-most rushing touchdowns per game (1.3).

Tracy found the end zone on Thanksgiving and has 14 of New York’s 19 red zone rush attempts since taking over the starting job in Week 5.

Picks made at 4:36 p.m. ET on 12/06/2024.