Avery Perri

Mike Evans and George Pickens headline this week’s touchdown picks.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are fighting for their respective divisions and I expect both teams’ top wideout to produce. Elsewhere, I like Tyrone Tracy Jr. to score for a second consecutive game.

Check out the best NFL Week 14 TD picks for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 14 TD picks

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Best bet: Evans anytime TD (-121)

There were some concerns Evans might not play this week after missing back-to-back practices with a calf injury.

But the veteran wideout was back on the field Friday, which is a strong indication he’ll suit up for Sunday’s bout against the Las Vegas Raiders.

And Tampa Bay desperately needs him in the mix. Evans returned to form last weekend against the New York Giants, hauling in eight of 12 targets for 118 yards and a score.

No one has consistently found the end zone like Evans over the last decade. He has 101 touchdowns since the 2014-15 season and has 20 in 26 games since Baker Mayfield joined the Bucs last season.

Sunday’s meeting against Las Vegas presents a golden opportunity for Evans to add to that total.

The Raiders have allowed 29.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.

Key stat: Las Vegas has allowed 13 passing touchdowns in its last five games and has the third-worst dropback EPA per play in that span, per RBSDM.com.

Quick picks

Pickens anytime TD (+110): If last week was anything to go by, Sunday’s matchup in Pittsburgh could be a shootout.

The Steelers secured a 44-38 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals while the Cleveland Browns lost a 41-32 thriller to the Denver Broncos.

Pickens was held to just four catches and 48 yards when these teams met a few weeks ago. But that game was contested in a blizzard, and Pittsburgh attempted 34 rushes to just 21 passes.

The Steelers have the second-highest rush rate in football (51.21%) but that’s still a massive outlier.

Cleveland’s secondary is mediocre at best, and Pickens should see a much higher volume of targets — especially in the red zone.

Pickens’ 16 red zone targets are tied for the fifth-most in the NFL.

Tracy anytime TD (-108): The Giants have to start scoring touchdowns at some point, right?

New York averages a league-low 15.3 points per game, so backing any player on that roster to score can be daunting.

But Tracy has been the team’s best rushing option and has a grade-A matchup.

The New Orleans Saints rank 30th in defensive EPA per rush and 31st in rush success rate. They’re also tied for allowing the sixth-most rushing touchdowns per game (1.3).

Tracy found the end zone on Thanksgiving and has 14 of New York’s 19 red zone rush attempts since taking over the starting job in Week 5.

Picks made at 4:36 p.m. ET on 12/06/2024.

The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs close Sunday’s slate with a divisional match at Arrowhead Stadium.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles and Kansas City rank first and eighth, respectively, in scoring defence but I’m taking the over. Expect Justin Herbert to be active as a passer, too.

Check out my Chargers vs. Chiefs best bets for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 8.

Chargers vs. Chiefs best bets

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Best Bet: Herbert over 33.5 pass attempts (-106)

Herbert hasn’t been asked to throw the ball much this year, as John Harbaugh has rode a strong running game and elite defence to victories.

But J.K. Dobbins is out and Kansas City has a ferocious front seven.

• KC allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game (87.8) and is fourth in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per rush.
  
• The Chiefs’ secondary isn’t as solid, allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game (224.1) and ranking 21st in defensive EPA per dropback.

Moving the ball downfield with Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal doesn’t seem feasible, so I expect Herbert to sling it.

But why not just take the over on his 20.5 completions prop? Well, Herbert sits 24th in completion percentage but that doesn’t tell the whole picture.

The Chargers’ quarterback ranks 10th in on-target throws (78.5%) but has the fourth-highest drop rate (7.1%), per Pro Football Reference.

I don’t entirely trust Los Angeles’ receiving corps to produce — especially in the cold at Arrowhead — so taking the over on Herbert’s pass attempts is my preferred prop bet.

Key stat: Herbert has cleared this line in two of his last three games.

Quick pick

Over 43 points (-109): With two strong defences matching up, taking the over might seem daunting. But this is a clearable number and neither unit is performing at its best right now.

Los Angeles just held the Atlanta Falcons to 13 points on the road but that required a four-interception meltdown from Kirk Cousins.

Before that, the Chargers allowed 30 and 27 points to the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, respectively.

The Chiefs’ offence is looking better with Isaiah Pacheco and DeAndre Hopkins in the mix and I think they can get cooking at home.

Aidan O’Connell, of all people, put up 340 yards and two passing TDs against the Chiefs last week. Prior to that, KC coughed up 27 points to the Carolina Panthers and 30 to the Buffalo Bills.

Picks made at 2:27 p.m. ET 12/06/2024.

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions kick off Week 14 with a huge NFC North showdown.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are rolling and I’m backing Green Bay to cover an alternate spread in a high-scoring game. Prop bets on Josh Jacobs and Jahmyr Gibbs round out this +360 ticket.

Check out my Packers vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions for Week 14 below.

Packers vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Packers +7.5 + Over 46.5 points + Jacobs to score + Gibbs over 49.5 rushing yards (+360)

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Packers +7.5 (-220): Could a fully healthy Lions team cover this number? Absolutely. But Detroit is seriously banged up on the defensive end, which shouldn’t be overlooked.

The unit has 13 players on the injured reserve ahead of Thursday Night Football:

The Lions have won 10 straight and have rolled some bad teams in that span.

But they barely escaped with a win on Thanksgiving against the Chicago Bears and also won by just a field goal against the Houston Texans a few games prior.

Green Bay has won seven of its last eight with the only outlier being a loss to Detroit where it out-gained the Lions by 150 yards.

Jordan Love and Co. are in a perfect spot to exact some revenge.

Other parlay picks

Over 46.5 points (-230): Let’s be clear: I’m not putting a stake in the Lions’ season. Far from it, actually.

Detroit’s Super Bowl aspirations are very much alive because of its elite offence. It scores the most points (31.9) and gains the second-most yards per game (395.2).

The Lions are going to light up the scoreboard — I just think the Packers can keep pace.

Green Bay has scored 30-plus points in consecutive games and has the eighth-best scoring offence in football.

Love has also been dynamite in December in his career, throwing for 11 touchdowns to one interception with a 107.4 passer rating (his best of any month).

Jacobs to score (-157): The Packers have been leaning on Jacobs in the red zone lately and the results have been fantastic. Check out his numbers over the last three games:

• 18 red-zone carries (most in NFL)
• Seven rush attempts within the five-yard line (most in NFL)
• Five TDs (most in NFL)

The first-year Packer has been a battering ram near the end zone and has a whopping eight touchdowns in his last six games.

Detroit’s run defence is in shambles right now, so I expect Matt LaFleur to call Jacobs’ number often.

Gibbs over 49.5 rushing yards (-315): Gibbs is in a timeshare with David Montgomery but that hasn’t stopped him from running all over teams.

The second-year back ranks fourth in rushing yards (973) and has cleared this line in 11 of 12 games. He fell under it in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Rams but has 60-plus rushing yards in every game since.

Green Bay’s rush defence is good but not great. Gibbs should blow by this mark if he gets a normal workload.

Picks made at 10:58 a.m. on 12/05/24.