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Maple Leafs picks vs. Predators Dec. 4: Back Toronto to win and Matthews to score

The Atlantic Division-leading Toronto Maple Leafs host the sputtering Nashville Predators on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has won nine of its past 11 games behind the spectacular goaltending of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz. I expect the Leafs to win in regulation tonight. I am also backing their captain, Auston Matthews, to score.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Predators picks for Dec. 4.

Maple Leafs vs. Predators picks

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Best Bet: Maple Leafs to win in regulation (+105)

Leafs fans haven’t enjoyed goaltending like this in a long, long time.

Woll and Stolarz have led Toronto to the second-best goals-against average (2.54), and the third-best team save percentage (.919).

Winning the Jennings Trophy is very much in play and down-ballot Vezina votes for either netminder isn’t out of the question.

Stolarz got the call on Monday vs. Chicago. As of Wednesday morning, the Leafs hadn’t announced who will start vs. Nashville, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if it’s Woll.

Check out Woll’s stellar November numbers:

5-1 record (four regulation wins)
1.99 GAA (fifth among goalies with 5+ starts)
.929 SV% (fourth among goalies with 5+ starts)

Toronto’s offence (nine goals in the last two games) has also come alive with Matthews back in the fold.

Nashville, meanwhile, is off to a brutal start after going all-in over the offseason.

The Predators are 7-12-6 and have lost four straight (though three came in overtime). They rank dead last in goals per game (2.32). Juuse Saros, who is expected to start Wednesday, has given up 16 goals in his past four starts.

Key stat: The Maple Leafs have won four of their past five games in regulation.

Quick pick

Matthews to score (-105): Matthews’ season has been a strange one.

He started goalless in three straight, then scored in three straight, then slumped again, before being placed on the IR and flying to Germany to see a specialist for an undisclosed injury.

But if we’re taking the Leafs’ comments at face value, Matthews’ recent IR stint is nothing to be worried about.

Matthews backed that up Monday with a goal against the Blackhawks.

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1863752867598741618

He also had a pair of assists Saturday against the Tampa Bay Lightning in his return. He appears to be skating at 100%.

We’re talking about getting a guy who scored 69 goals a year ago at nearly even money to score against one of the worst teams in the NHL. Sign me up.

NHL picks made at 8:48 a.m. ET on 12/04/24.

Rockets vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Dec. 3: Back VanVleet, Smith at +340

The Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings meet tonight in the last game of the NBA Cup’s group stage.

The pregame narrative: Houston has punched its ticket to the next round while Sacramento (0-3 NBA Cup record) is out. I’m backing Jabari Smith Jr. and Fred VanVleet but still expect the Kings to cover a hefty alt spread at home.

Check out my Rockets vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 3.

Rockets vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Kings +7.5 + Brooks over 1.5 threes + VanVleet over 5.5 assists (+340)

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Kings +7.5 (-435): Sacramento could probably care less that it’s out of contention for the NBA Cup, but it still needs to turn things around quickly.

The Kings have lost six of their last seven games and are now 9-12 on the season.

But they’ve still covered this number 17 times (80.9%) and are often in it right ’till the end.

Houston is on a three-game winning streak but has failed to cover this number in each contest, with two requiring overtime.

All in all, the Rockets (15-6) are just 9-12 against this number and just 1-8 against it on the road.

All signs point to this being a closely contested affair, so I’ll happily bank eight extra points with the home side.

SGP legs

Smith over 1.5 threes (-103): A big reason the Kings have been losing games is their atrocious 3-point defence.

28th in opponent 3PT% (38.2)
28th in opponent 3s attempted/game (39.5)

Teams are shooting with volume and accuracy from deep against Sacramento and I want to exploit that.

Smith doesn’t take a ton of 3s but he’s cleared this line in five of his last six games, making three-plus 3s in four of those contests.

The third-year power forward is shooting 37.7% from deep since Nov. 1 and has the perfect matchup to bring that a couple of notches higher.

VanVleet over 5.5 assists (-124): VanVleet has a consistent floor as a facilitator.

He’s recorded five or more assists in 13 of his last 15 games, clearing this mark seven times. The only times he recorded fewer than five assists was in a pair of games against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

OKC has the best defensive rating in basketball and allows the fifth-fewest assists per game to point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Sacramento is 17th in defensive rating and allows the eighth-most APG to point guards.

VanVleet is averaging 6.2 assists on the season and should have an above-average night against a below-average defence.

Picks made at 1:10 p.m. on 12/03/24.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 3: Back Hartenstein and Powell on Tuesday

There’s no shortage of prop betting opportunities with 11 games on Tuesday’s NBA Cup slate.

The pregame narrative: Isaiah Hartenstein has been a wrecking ball for the Oklahoma City Thunder and draws a perfect matchup. I expect him to stuff the stat sheet and am also backing Norman Powell to light up the Portland Trail Blazers.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 3.

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Best bet: Hartenstein over 24.5 points/rebounds (-112)

The one risk with this play, in my mind, is blowout potential.

OKC is a 13-point home favourite over the Utah Jazz, meaning Hartenstein could be pulled early if things get out of hand.

But my bold take is this: He could clear this number in the first half.

Hartenstein has averaged 15.2 points and 13.8 rebounds (29.0 P/A) in five games with the Thunder, going over this number in every contest.

He’s only playing 30 minutes a night anyway and is easily the team’s top rebounding threat with Chet Holmgren sidelined.

The Jazz are a decent rebounding team, allowing a middle-of-the-pack 15.1 rebounds per game to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

Hartenstein should be active on the glass and I expect him to feast in the short midrange and the paint. Check out how Utah ranks defending those areas of the court, according to Cleaning the Glass:

71.4 opposing FG% at the rim (30th in NBA)
44.8 opposing FG% in the short midrange (26th in NBA)

This looks like a smash play even in a contest with reduced minutes potential.

Key stat: Hartenstein takes 93% of his shots at the rim and in the short midrange (four to 14 feet from the basket).

Quick picks

Powell over 20.5 points (-120): Powell has really stepped up for the Los Angeles Clippers with Kawhi Leonard sidelined.

He’s averaging 23.6 points a night, shooting a clinical 49.2% from the field and 49.6% from deep.

The guard has gone over this mark in 11 of 16 games, including a 30-point performance against tonight’s opponent, the Portland Trail Blazers, in October.

Powell just dropped 28 and 23 points against the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors in his last two games.

He shouldn’t have an issue clearing this mark against a Portland squad sitting 21st in defensive rating.

Picks made at 10:19 a.m. ET on 12/03/2024.

Warriors vs. Nuggets prop picks Dec. 3: Back Curry to score, fade Jokic from deep

I’ve got prop bets on Steph Curry and Nikola Jokic when the Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors tonight.

The pregame narrative: Both superstars draw favourable matchups and will be the focal points on offence this evening. I think both players will score but am backing Curry and am fading Jokic.

Check out my Warriors vs. Nuggets prop picks for Dec. 3.

Warriors vs. Nuggets prop picks

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Best Bet: Curry over 23.5 points (-125)

Let’s get this out of the way: Curry’s scoring has been way down this season.

The future Hall of Famer is putting up 22.5 points a night, which is on pace to be the lowest mark since his 2010-11 sophomore season (excluding years where he played fewer than 30 games).

But Curry is also playing just 29.9 minutes a night, which is nearly five minutes below his career average.

The sharpshooter has still been efficient, especially from deep, cashing in at a 43.4% rate from beyond the arc. And with Golden State staring down a five-game losing streak, I expect Steve Kerr to give his best player plenty of run.

Even with his reduced role, Curry has cleared or came close to this line often:

24+ points in 6/15 games (two games with 23 points)
23+ points in 6/8 games where he’s played 30+ minutes

The Nuggets lack depth and are a mediocre defensive team, sitting 19th in defensive rating (114.2) while allowing the 10th-most 3s per game (13.8).

I expect Curry to comfortably clear this mark as long as he plays north of 30 minutes.

Key stat: Denver allows the 10th most PPG to opposing point guards, per Fantays Pros.

Quick pick

Jokic under 1.5 threes (+115): Fading Jokic while he’s shooting a career-best 50.8% from deep might seem ill-advised, but I think it makes sense here.

The MVP frontrunner has cleared this mark in 10 of 15 games but he’s also finished with exactly two 3s on five occasions.

And Jokic is only attempting 4.3 threes a night, so he’ll have to remain hyper-efficient to clear this number.

The Warriors are the league’s best 3-point defending team — holding opponents to a 32.7% rate — but are the worst at containing the midrange. Opponents are shooting 46.3% from that area of the court, which is the highest in the NBA.

Denver’s offensive game plan should focus on Jokic getting inside and doing damage off the pick-and-roll, not from beyond the arc.

Jokic has gone under this number in five of his last seven against the Warriors.

Picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET 12/03/2024.

Warriors vs. Nuggets prop picks Dec. 3: Back Curry to score, fade Jokic from deep

I’ve got prop bets on Steph Curry and Nikola Jokic when the Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors tonight.

The pregame narrative: Both superstars draw favourable matchups and will be the focal points on offence this evening. I think both players will score but am backing Curry and am fading Jokic.

Check out my Warriors vs. Nuggets prop picks for Dec. 3.

Warriors vs. Nuggets prop picks

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Best Bet: Curry over 23.5 points (-120)

Let’s get this out of the way: Curry’s scoring has been way down this season.

The future Hall of Famer is putting up 22.5 points a night, which is on pace to be the lowest mark since his 2010-11 sophomore season (excluding years where he played fewer than 30 games).

But Curry is also playing just 29.9 minutes a night, which is nearly five minutes below his career average.

The sharpshooter has still been efficient, especially from deep, cashing in at a 43.4% rate from beyond the arc. And with Golden State staring down a five-game losing streak, I expect Steve Kerr to give his best player plenty of run.

Even with his reduced role, Curry has cleared or came close to this line often:

24+ points in 6/15 games (two games with 23 points)
23+ points in 6/8 games where he’s played 30+ minutes

The Nuggets lack depth and are a mediocre defensive team, sitting 19th in defensive rating (114.2) while allowing the 10th-most 3s per game (13.8).

I expect Curry to comfortably clear this mark as long as he plays north of 30 minutes.

Key stat: Denver allows the 10th most PPG to opposing point guards, per Fantays Pros.

Quick pick

Jokic under 1.5 threes (-103): Fading Jokic while he’s shooting a career-best 50.8% from deep might seem ill-advised, but I think it makes sense here.

The MVP frontrunner has cleared this mark in 10 of 15 games but he’s also finished with exactly two 3s on five occasions.

And Jokic is only attempting 4.3 threes a night, so he’ll have to remain hyper-efficient to clear this number.

The Warriors are the league’s best 3-point defending team — holding opponents to a 32.7% rate — but are the worst at containing the midrange. Opponents are shooting 46.3% from that area of the court, which is the highest in the NBA.

Denver’s offensive game plan should focus on Jokic getting inside and doing damage off the pick-and-roll, not from beyond the arc.

Jokic has gone under this number in five of his last seven against the Warriors.

Picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET 12/03/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 3: Back Hartenstein, Poole and Powell on Tuesday

There’s no shortage of prop betting opportunities with 11 games on Tuesday’s NBA Cup slate.

The pregame narrative: Isaiah Hartenstein has been a wrecking ball for the Oklahoma City Thunder and draws a perfect matchup. I expect him to stuff the stat sheet and am also backing Jordan Poole and Norman Powell.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 3.

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Best bet: Hartenstein over 24.5 points/rebounds (-117)

The one risk with this play, in my mind, is blowout potential.

OKC is a 13-point home favourite over the Utah Jazz, meaning Hartenstein could be pulled early if things get out of hand.

But my bold take is this: He could clear this number in the first half.

Hartenstein has averaged 15.2 points and 13.8 rebounds (29.0 P/A) in five games with the Thunder, going over this number in every contest.

He’s only playing 30 minutes a night anyway and is easily the team’s top rebounding threat with Chet Holmgren sidelined.

The Jazz are a decent rebounding team, allowing a middle-of-the-pack 15.1 rebounds per game to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

Hartenstein should be active on the glass and I expect him to feast in the short midrange and the paint. Check out how Utah ranks defending those areas of the court, according to Cleaning the Glass:

71.4 opposing FG% at the rim (30th in NBA)
44.8 opposing FG% in the short midrange (26th in NBA)

This looks like a smash play even in a contest with reduced minutes potential.

Key stat: Hartenstein takes 93% of his shots at the rim and in the short midrange (four to 14 feet from the basket).

Quick picks

Powell over 20.5 points (-130): Powell has really stepped up for the Los Angeles Clippers with Kawhi Leonard sidelined.

He’s averaging 23.6 points a night, shooting a clinical 49.2% from the field and 49.6% from deep.

The guard has gone over this mark in 11 of 16 games, including a 30-point performance against tonight’s opponent, the Portland Trail Blazers, in October.

Powell just dropped 28 and 23 points against the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors in his last two games.

He shouldn’t have an issue clearing this mark against a Portland squad sitting 21st in defensive rating.

Poole over 3.5 threes (+128): This is another game with blowout potential as the last-place Washington Wizards take on the first-place Cleveland Cavaliers.

That said, Poole isn’t shy to let loose from deep and Cleveland has been awful at defending the 3-point line.

Poole has only cleared this line in six of 16 games but he’s landed on exactly three 3s four times. He’s attempting 7.6 threes a night and went 4-of-7 from deep against the Cavs earlier this year.

Cleveland has the second-highest opponent 3-point percentage (38.3) in the NBA.

Picks made at 10:19 a.m. ET on 12/03/2024.

NFL Week 14 upset picks: Back the Rams, Falcons as underdogs on Sunday

Two NFC teams headline these NFL Week 14 upset picks.

The pregame narrative: A struggling Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota and I expect his Atlanta Falcons to leave with a win. Later on, back the Los Angeles Rams at home against the Buffalo Bills.

Check out these NFL Week 14 upset picks.

NFL Week 14 upset picks

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Best bet: Falcons moneyline (+200)

The Falcons have been wildly inconsistent this season, going from ice-cold to red-hot and back again in a matter of 12 games:

Falcons Weeks 1-3: 1-2 record, 16.3 PPG
Falcons Weeks 4-9: 5-1 record, 28.6 PPG
Falcons Weeks 10-13: 0-3 record, 12.0 PPG

We’ve seen this team’s offensive ceiling and it’s impressive. But the floor is ugly and I’m hoping Cousins hit rock bottom last week when he threw four interceptions in a 17-10 loss.

There’s nowhere to go but up after a performance like that and now Cousins has a chance to stick it to his old team, which has been winning a lot, but by thin margins.

Minnesota has a 10-2 record but I’m getting whiffs of fraudulence up north.

The squad is 5-2 since its bye and four of those wins were decided by one score. That includes a 12-7 win over Mac Jones and the Jacksonville Jaguars and a 30-27 overtime win against the downtrodden Chicago Bears.

The Vikings are also a middling 15th in RBSDM.com’s offensive EPA per play since their bye and are averaging just 21.8 PPG during their win streak.

The Falcons are on a three-game skid but still lead the NFC South. I think they can stop the bleeding with a statement win on the road.

Key stat: Atlanta is 3-2 on the road this season

Week 14 upset predictions

Rams moneyline (+180): I know what you’re thinking: The Bills are red-hot and Josh Allen seems destined for his first MVP award.

Well, maybe both of those things are true but this is shaping up to be a classic letdown spot on the road.

Buffalo is 10-2 with a perfect 6-0 home record. The squad is an impressive 4-2 away from Highmark Stadium but lost handily against its two toughest opponents (Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans).

The Rams have won five of seven following their Week 6 bye and are getting surprisingly stout defensively play without Aaron Donald in the mix.

Buffalo can light up the scoreboard but Matthew Stafford can keep pace, especially since Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are all healthy.

Picks made at 1:24 p.m. ET on 12/02/2024.

NFL Week 14 upset picks: Back the Rams, Falcons as underdogs on Sunday

Two NFC teams headline these NFL Week 14 upset picks.

The pregame narrative: A struggling Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota and I expect his Atlanta Falcons to leave with a win. Later on, back the Los Angeles Rams at home against the Buffalo Bills.

Check out these NFL Week 14 upset picks.

NFL Week 14 upset picks

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Best bet: Falcons moneyline (+185)

The Falcons have been wildly inconsistent this season, going from ice-cold to red-hot and back again in a matter of 12 games:

Falcons Weeks 1-3: 1-2 record, 16.3 PPG
Falcons Weeks 4-9: 5-1 record, 28.6 PPG
Falcons Weeks 10-13: 0-3 record, 12.0 PPG

We’ve seen this team’s offensive ceiling and it’s impressive. But the floor is ugly and I’m hoping Cousins hit rock bottom last week when he threw four interceptions in a 17-10 loss.

There’s nowhere to go but up after a performance like that and now Cousins has a chance to stick it to his old team, which has been winning a lot, but by thin margins.

Minnesota has a 10-2 record but I’m getting whiffs of fraudulence up north.

The squad is 5-2 since its bye and four of those wins were decided by one score. That includes a 12-7 win over Mac Jones and the Jacksonville Jaguars and a 30-27 overtime win against the downtrodden Chicago Bears.

The Vikings are also a middling 15th in RBSDM.com’s offensive EPA per play since their bye and are averaging just 21.8 PPG during their win streak.

The Falcons are on a three-game skid but still lead the NFC South. I think they can stop the bleeding with a statement win on the road.

Key stat: Atlanta is 3-2 on the road this season

Week 14 upset predictions

Rams moneyline (+170): I know what you’re thinking: The Bills are red-hot and Josh Allen seems destined for his first MVP award.

Well, maybe both of those things are true but this is shaping up to be a classic letdown spot on the road.

Buffalo is 10-2 with a perfect 6-0 home record. The squad is an impressive 4-2 away from Highmark Stadium but lost handily against its two toughest opponents (Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans).

The Rams have won five of seven following their Week 6 bye and are getting surprisingly stout defensively play without Aaron Donald in the mix.

Buffalo can light up the scoreboard but Matthew Stafford can keep pace, especially since Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are all healthy.

Picks made at 1:24 p.m. ET on 12/02/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 2: Back Jayson Tatum from deep, fade LeBron James’ assist total

I’ve got prop bets on two of Monday’s four NBA games.

The pregame narrative: Jayson Tatum is having an MVP-calibre season and should take charge on an injured Boston Celtics team tonight. With my second pick, I am fading LeBron James.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 2.

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Best bet: Tatum over 3.5 threes (-134)

Tatum has been on a scoring binge this season. Check out his numbers through 20 games (NBA ranks in parenthesis):

29.0 PPG (fifth)
4.0 threes/game (fifth)
10.5 threes attempted/game (fourth)

The five-time All-Star is shooting with frequency and accuracy from deep, boasting a respectable 38.1% 3-point percentage.

Last night, Tatum put up 33 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers while making 4-of-9 threes. He dropped 35 with four triples against the Chicago Bulls the game before that.

Boston is on a back-to-back and will potentially be without Derrick White (foot) and Jaylen Brown (illness), neither of whom played yesterday.

On top of that, it’s expected Boston will rest 38-year-old Al Horford alongside Kristaps Porzingis, who just returned from a lengthy injury stint.

That means Tatum and Jrue Holiday could be the only members of Boston’s starting five in the mix.

The Celtics are still heavily favoured against a mediocre Miami Heat team which allows opponents to shoot a middling 36.1% from deep.

Key stat: Tatum has cleared this mark in 10 of his last 13 games.

Quick picks

James under 9.5 assists (-120): LeBron hasn’t skipped a beat in season 22 and is currently dishing out the third-most assists per game (9.4).

He’s cleared this mark in three of his last four and is exactly 50% against this line on the season. Paying -129 juice to take the under might seem like a bad bet then, but I disagree.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have done well to keep LeBron in check as a facilitator.

He only had four assists against them earlier this season and has gone under this mark in nine straight games against the T-Wolves dating back to 2021.

In that span, LeBron has only logged more than six assists once.

Picks made at 12:09 p.m. ET on 12/02/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 2: Back Jayson Tatum from deep, fade LeBron James’ assist total

I’ve got prop bets on three of Monday’s four NBA games.

The pregame narrative: Jayson Tatum is having an MVP-calibre season and should take charge on an injured Boston Celtics team tonight. I’m also backing Nix Claxton and fading LeBron James’

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 2.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Tatum over 3.5 threes (-130)

Tatum has been on a scoring binge this season. Check out his numbers through 20 games (NBA ranks in parenthesis):

29.0 PPG (fifth)
4.0 threes/game (fifth)
10.5 threes attempted/game (fourth)

The five-time All-Star is shooting with frequency and accuracy from deep, boasting a respectable 38.1% 3-point percentage.

Last night, Tatum put up 33 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers while making 4-of-9 threes. He dropped 35 with four triples against the Chicago Bulls the game before that.

Boston is on a back-to-back and will potentially be without Derrick White (foot) and Jaylen Brown (illness), neither of whom played yesterday.

On top of that, it’s expected Boston will rest 38-year-old Al Horford alongside Kristaps Porzingis, who just returned from a lengthy injury stint.

That means Tatum and Jrue Holiday could be the only members of Boston’s starting five in the mix.

The Celtics are still heavily favoured against a mediocre Miami Heat team which allows opponents to shoot a middling 36.1% from deep.

Key stat: Tatum has cleared this mark in 10 of his last 13 games.

Quick picks

Claxton over 22.5 points and rebounds (-120): The Brooklyn Nets are also banged up with Cam Thomas and Noah Clowney out.

Dorian Finney-Smith didn’t play last night and Ben Simmons (shocker) left the game early with a knee contusion.

Someone is going to have to pick up the slack and I think it’s Claxton.

The 6-foot-11 centre is only averaging 8.5 points and 7.6 boards but he’s going to have an outsized opportunity against an awful defensive team.

The Nets take on a Chicago Bulls squad sitting 29th in defensive rating and allowing the third-most points per game to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.

James under 9.5 assists (-129): LeBron hasn’t skipped a beat in season 22 and is currently dishing out the third-most assists per game (9.4).

He’s cleared this mark in three of his last four and is exactly 50% against this line on the season. Paying -129 juice to take the under might seem like a bad bet then, but I disagree.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have done well to keep LeBron in check as a facilitator.

He only had four assists against them earlier this season and has gone under this mark in nine straight games against the T-Wolves dating back to 2021.

In that span, LeBron has only logged more than six assists once.

Picks made at 12:09 p.m. ET on 12/02/2024.