Avery Perri

I’ve got a four-leg SGP for when the Denver Broncos host the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: A rested Browns team should cover a teased-up spread in what I expect will be a low-scoring affair. Rushing prop bets on Bo Nix and Nick Chubb round out this +335 ticket.

Check out my Browns vs. Broncos same-game parlay predictions for Week 13 below.

Browns vs. Broncos same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Browns +10.5 + Chubb over 49.5 rushing yards + Nix over 19.5 rushing yards (+350)

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Browns +10.5 (-225): Cleveland isn’t a great team by any stretch but it’s a heck of a lot better with Jameis Winston under centre.

The Browns went 1-6 with Deshaun Watson, failing to score more than 18 points in any of those contests.

Winston is 2-2 with impressive wins against the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. The losses both came in blowouts against the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers but Winston averaged 315 passing yards in those games while Watson failed to crack 200 in any start.

Denver has been one of the league’s big surprises this year thanks to its stellar defence and Nix’s solid play but I like Cleveland’s chances of keeping this relatively close.

The Browns haven’t played since Nov. 21 and are 7-4 against this spread.

Other parlay picks

Chubb over 49.5 rushing yards (-210): Chubb has clearly lost a step since returning from a brutal knee injury but he still sees a ton of volume and has cleared this line in consecutive games.

The veteran RB turned 20 carries into 50 yards against the Steelers in Week 12 and 11 into 50 against the Saints the week before that.

I’m hoping to see Chubb receive around 15 carries which should be enough volume to clear this line.

Chubb has 73 carries since returning in Week 7 with no other back receiving more than 11.

Nix over 19.5 rushing yards (-115): Nix hasn’t had to use his legs much lately but the rookie can move.

The Oregon product cleared this line in six of his first nine games before logging five total rushing yards in the last three. Two of those games were blowout victories, though, where Nix only attempted a combined three carries.

The Browns can bring pressure with Myles Garrett — who has six sacks in his last three games — coming off the edge. That should force Nix to call his number and bounce things outside.

Cleveland also gives up the ninth-most rushing yards per game to QBs (24.5), according to CBS Sports.

Picks made at 10:58 a.m. on 12/02/24.

The Buffalo Bills welcome the San Francisco 49ers to Orchard Park for Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Buffalo should maintain its perfect home record against an injured San Francisco squad. I’m backing Josh Allen to throw multiple touchdowns and also have prop bets on Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings.

Check out my 49ers vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 13 below.

49ers vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Bills moneyline + Allen over 1.5 touchdown passes + McCaffrey over 49.5 rushing yards + Jennings over 34.5 receiving yards (+410)

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Bills moneyline (-278): The Niners are banged up, missing superstars on both sides of the ball with Trent Williams and Nick Bosa out.

Brock Purdy is expected to play but he’s still battling a shoulder injury and that doesn’t bode well for San Fran’s sputtering offence, which is averaging just 19.6 points over its last five games.

Keeping up with the Bills at Highmark Stadium will be tough, as the squad owns a 5-0 record with a +15.8 average margin of victory there this season.

San Francisco’s season might be on the line but I expect Buffalo to keep things rolling under the bright lights.

Other parlay picks

Allen over 1.5 touchdown passes (+102): Entering play on Sunday, Allen was favoured to win the MVP.

A statement game tonight would go a long way in solidifying his case and I think he’s primed to dice up the Niners through the air.

Allen only has one TD pass in his last two games but recorded multiple in four straight before that.

He’s had at least 33 passing attempts in five consecutive games and should have more time to push the ball downfield with Bosa sidelined.

The Niners’ defence has been suspect this season and is missing a few big names in the secondary. All things considered, Allen is in a good spot to keep his 2.4 passing touchdowns per game pace at home.

McCaffrey over 49.5 rushing yards (-295): McCaffrey seems to have lost a step but I still like his chances of clearing this teased-down line.

The reigning offensive player of the year was held to just 31 yards on 11 carries last week but the game script didn’t work in his favour as the Purdy-less Niners were down huge to the Green Bay Packers early.

McCaffrey still logged an 82% snap count and should have a much bigger workload on SNF.

The Bills allow the fourth-most yards per rush (4.9) and five of the last six starting RBs to play them have cleared this total.

Jennings over 34.5 receiving yards (-345): Jennings has become San Fran’s WR1 with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined.

The fourth-year wideout leads the team in targets (65) and has a whopping 22 catches over his last three games. He went over this line in each of those contests while averaging 74.7 yards per game.

Jennings has cleared this mark in seven of nine on the season.

Picks made at 12:55 p.m. on 11/29/24.

I’m backing three players to catch a touchdown pass on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins are two of the best receivers in the game and they draw great matchups. Meanwhile, Pat Freiermuth has a good opportunity to perform for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Check out the best NFL Week 13 TD picks for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 13 TD picks

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Best bet: Collins anytime TD (-110)

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Collins was electric last week, going for 92 yards and a score against the Tennesee Titans.

That would’ve marked his fourth straight game with a TD had his 77-yard touchdown not been called back against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11.

The speedy wide receiver has had a 25-plus yard catch in every game and is a threat to burst loose for a long score at any moment.

But he’s also a favourite of C.J. Stroud’s in the red zone, tying the team lead in targets (nine) despite missing five games.

Collins and Co. are going up against a Jaguars secondary allowing the most passing yards per game (279.3).

Key stat: Jacksonville has allowed the second-most passing TDs (24) in the NFL.

Quick picks

Jefferson anytime TD (-148): Jefferson scored in four straight games to start the season but has gone ice cold since, logging just one TD in his last seven.

A lot has been made of players like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (six) having more TDs than Jefferson (five) –— but that doesn’t mean much to me.

The Vikings’ star receiver has 14 red-zone targets which is double that of Jalen Nailor, who is next on the team with seven.

Jefferson’s 939 receiving yards ranks second in the league behind only his former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase. At the risk of sounding reductive, he’s simply due to score if he keeps putting up gaudy totals.

This week’s matchup should be a good one for Jefferson to get off the schneid as the Arizona Cardinals rank 21st in defensive EPA per dropback.

Freiermuth anytime TD (+230): Freiermuth has had some internal competition in the last five weeks with the emergence of second-year TE Darnell Washington:

• Freiermuth weeks 7-12: 13 catches, 14 targets, 160 yards
• Washington weeks 7-12: 11 catches, 15 targets, 127 yards

But Freiermuth still out-snapped Washington in four of those five games and has been Pittsburgh’s red-zone TE this year.

Freiermuth has seven targets inside the 20 — turning three of those into touchdowns — while Washington and Conor Heyward (Pittsburgh’s third-string TE) have three combined.

The Cincinnati Bengals’ secondary is awful and it particularly struggles to defend tight ends. Cincy is allowing the fifth-most yards (62.2) and second-most TDs (0.64) to TEs per game.

Picks made at 2:37 p.m. ET on 11/29/2024.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders meet for a divisional showdown on Black Friday.

The pregame narrative: Aidan O’Connell is starting for Vegas, and I think Kansas City can win this one by at least a score. Prop bets on Isiah Pacheco and Brock Bowers round out this +310 SGP.

Check out my Raiders vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 28.

Raiders vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Chiefs -6.5 + Pacheco to score + Bowers over 54.5 receiving yards (+310)

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Chiefs -6.5 (-275): Kansas City isn’t playing its best football right now.

The Chiefs have failed to cover this number in four straight and barely beat the Carolina Panthers a week after losing to the Buffalo Bills.

But they’re still 10-1. If you want to see a team playing bad football, look at the Raiders:

• 2-9 record (4-7 ATS)
• Seven straight losses, six by 7+ points
• 29th in scoring defence (28.5 PPG)
• 26th in scoring offence (18.7 PPG)

This is a team without an identity and without a quarterback. Kansas City should roll its division rival back home at Arrowhead.

Other parlay picks

Pacheco anytime TD (-139): I know what you’re thinking: It’s risky backing a guy coming off the IR to score. But I’ll take the plunge.

Pacheco was a TD machine in the latter half of 2023, scoring in four consecutive games to close out the regular season and three of four playoff games.

His smash-mouth running style is made for the goal line, and he’s a capable receiving back, too.

Kareem Hunt is averaging 19.4 touches per game and will probably still get the lion’s share of carries but he’s failed to score in three straight.

In a game that has the potential to get out of hand, I can see Andy Reid getting Pacheco some goal line work.

Bowers over 54.5 receiving yards (-159): Bowers shouldn’t be affected by Minshew’s injury.

The rookie tight end leads his position group in targets (99), receptions (74) and yards (744) and has gone over this mark in seven of 11 games.

Bowers also ranks top 10 in the NFL in route participation (72.6%), snap share (82.9%) and target share (23.7%), according to Player Profiler.

He caught all five of his targets for 58 yards against the Chiefs last month and I expect an even better performance this time.

KC allows the most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, per CBS Sports.

Picks made at 1:28 p.m. on 11/28/24.