Avery Perri

This week’s NFL parlay features two moneyline picks and an alt ATS wager.

The pregame narrative: The Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles are rolling and I expect each to stay in the win column on Sunday. Elsewhere, back the Pittsburgh Steelers as a teased-up road underdog against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Check out my NFL Week 13 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.

NFL Week 13 parlay picks

Go to full NFL Week 13 betting markets.

Parlay: Eagles moneyline + Bills moneyline + Steelers +7.5 (+325)

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Eagles moneyline (+135): This could very well be a Super Bowl preview, which speaks to how good both teams have been. But I’ll ride with Philly considering its stellar recent form.

The Eagles have been thrashing teams since their Week 5 bye:

• 7-0 record (5-2 ATS)
• +107 point differential.
• Second in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per play

Saquon Barkley has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate and Jalen Hurts has done a great job taking care of the football.

But it’s Philadelphia’s defence that has my attention. The Eagles have held six of their last seven opponents to 20 points or fewer and are exceptional at stopping the run.

I expect that unit will give Baltimore trouble and don’t trust the Ravens’ secondary to hold up against a red-hot A.J. Brown.

Other parlay picks

Bills moneyline (-315): San Francisco’s injury report is lit up like a Christmas tree. Take a look at some of the players it might be missing this weekend:

• Brock Purdy (questionable) — Limited Wednesday
• Trent Williams (questionable) — DNP Wednesday
• Nick Bosa (questionable) — DNP Wednesday
• Deommodore Lenoir (questionable) — DNP Wednesday

That’s on top of All-Pros Brandon Aiyuk and Talanoa Hufanga being on the injured reserve.

Even if they were all healthy, beating the Bills in Buffalo would be a tall order.

Josh Allen and Co. are destroying teams at Highmark Stadium with a 5-0 record and a +15.8 average margin of victory. And they’re 20-4 straight up at home over the last three seasons.

Steelers +7.5 (-275): The Steelers are coming off a whacky loss to the Browns in a blizzard but they should rebound as a road dog.

Pittsburgh had won five straight games before that and is 11-0 ATS against this number this season.

Mike Tomlin’s group also went 5-1 in divisional games last year and 2-0 against the Bengals. Joe Burrow didn’t play in those games but Pittsburgh was starting Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph, so I consider that a wash.

Russell Wilson is a veteran playing some good football and he should have a field day against the Bengals. Cincy’s secondary ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed and defensive EPA per dropback.

NFL picks made at 11:01 a.m. on 11/28/24.

The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions kick off Thursday’s Thanksgiving festivities with a divisional showdown in the Motor City.

The pregame narrative: Chicago has lost five straight but I’m backing it to cover a heavily teased-up spread. I’m also taking the over on a Caleb Williams passing prop and Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving line.

Check out my Bears vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions for Week 13.

Bears vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions

Go to full NFL betting markets

Parlay: Bears +14.5 + Williams over 226.5 passing yards + St. Brown over 69.5 receiving yards (+340)

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Bears +14.5 (-220): With the way these teams are trending, conventional wisdom would point toward a Lions blowout victory at home.

• Chicago has lost five straight with a -45 point differential
• Detroit has won nine straight with a +175 point differential

But the Bears have shown some fight in the last two weeks.

They almost beat the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings but choked to lose those contests by a combined four points. They’re also 9-2 against this line on the season.

The Lions are a wagon but are still 4-7 against a -14.5 line this season.

Three of those ATS wins came against Anthony Richardson, Mac Jones and Mason Rudolph (Dak Prescott, too).

Williams hasn’t been on a Rookie of the Year trajectory but he’s played better lately, throwing for 571 yards in the last two games with a 70.5% completion rate.

This should be much closer than people expect.

Other parlay picks

Williams over 226.5 passing yards (-113): Williams hasn’t cleared this line often despite going over it in the last two games.

He’s 4-7 against it this year while landing on exactly 226 yards once.

But this should be a good spot for the No. 1 overall pick to stay hot. Just because I think the Bears will cover +14.5 doesn’t mean I think the Lions’ offence will fall asleep.

Detroit will score, meaning Williams should be in a pass-first role for most of the game.

The Lions’ defence allows the eighth-most passing yards per game (227.2) while ranking second in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback for that very reason.

Standout Detroit corner Carlton Davis III has also been ruled out with an injury, while Chicago’s Keenan Allen is beginning to find his footing.

That all bodes will for Williams’ passing total.

St. Brown over 69.5 receiving yards (-120): On the other side of the ball, I expect St. Brown to have a statement game.

It’s been a relatively quiet year for the standout WR after posting 1,515 receiving yards last season (third-most in the NFL).

St. Brown is on pace for 1,154 this time around and has only recorded 70-plus receiving yards four times. But he’s been in the ballpark of this number often, averaging 76.3 receiving yards across his last six games.

Chicago’s secondary has fallen by the wayside since its Week 7 bye, with the team ranking 23rd in defensive EPA per dropback during its five-game losing streak.

St. Brown still commands a 28.5% target share, per RotoWire, which is elite among all receivers and tight ends.

Picks made at 3:40 p.m. on 11/27/24.

I’ve got a three-pack of best bets for Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day NFL slate.

The pregame narrative: I’m backing two NFC North teams — the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers — alongside New York Giants running back Tyrone Tracy.

Check out the best NFL Week 13 best bets for American Thanksgiving.

NFL Week 13 best bets

Go to full NFL Week 13 betting markets.

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Best bet: Tracy over 63.5 rushing yards (-113)

Last week’s game script did not work in Tracy’s favour.

The Giants were down 30-0 heading into the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tracy was temporarily benched after fumbling away a red zone carry.

The fact that Brian Daboll decided to pull one of his only productive players from the game didn’t make sense to me at the time and shouldn’t impact his usage on Thursday.

Tracy turned nine carries into 42 yards against the Bucs (4.7 YPC). He had cleared this line in three straight games before that:

• Week 10 vs. Panthers: 18 carries, 103 yards (5.7 YPC)
• Week 9 vs. Commanders: 16 carries, 66 yards (4.1 YPC)
• Week 8 vs. Steelers: 20 carries, 145 yards (7.3 YPC)

The rookie RB has been a horse and I expect him to have an absolute field day against Dallas’ defence.

The Cowboys are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (150.5) and rank last in defensive EPA per rush, per RBSDM.com.

Key stat: Tracy is averaging 79.9 rushing yards per game since being named the starter in Week 5.

NFL Thanksgiving Day picks

Packers over 24.5 points (-109): Green Bay was dealt a favourable hand last week when it hosted a San Francisco 49ers team without Nick Bosa and Brock Purdy.

The Packers took advantage and laid down a 38-10 beating, securing their sixth win in seven games.

• The Jordan Love-led offence is averaging 26.3 PPG during this 6-1 run.
• Green Bay is 3-4 against this line in that span but finished with exactly 24 points twice.

I’m feeling really good about where the Packers are at right now and expect them to keep chugging against a Dolphins defence which can’t be trusted.

Miami has held its last three opponents to a combined 49 points. But it also faced the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots in that span.

It’s given up 28-plus points to the Buffalo Bills (twice), Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans this year.

Bears +10.5 (-120): Betting against the Detroit Lions right now is terrifying but I’ll take the Bears to cover 10 points and a hook in a divisional showdown.

Chicago has just lost consecutive divisional games against the Packers and Minnesota Vikings by a combined four points and is 9-2 against this line on the season.

Caleb Williams is starting to play better and is taking care of the football. He’s thrown for 571 yards in the last two games with a 70.5% completion rate.

The rookie has only thrown one interception since Week 3. That’ll be key to keeping a score-happy Lions offence off the field.

As good as Detroit has been, it is still 5-6 against a -10.5 line this season.

Picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 11/26/2024.