Avery Perri

Kevin Durant is set to return tonight when the Phoenix Suns host the Los Angeles Lakers.

The pregame narrative: The Suns went 1-6 without KD in the lineup and I expect him to get them back in the win column tonight. A prop bet on Los Angeles’ Dalton Knecht rounds out this +310 SGP.

Check out my Lakers vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 26.

Lakers vs. Suns predictions

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Parlay: Suns moneyline + Durant over 22.5 points + Knecht 1.5 threes (+310)

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Suns moneyline (-137): Durant isn’t anywhere near the MVP conversation but he might as well be considering Phoenix’s splits with and without him in the lineup:

• With Durant: 8-1 record, 114.4 points power game
• Without Durant: 1-6 record, 109.0 points per game

KD is officially listed as probable as of 10:30 a.m. ET but keep an eye on his status. Needless to say, if he can’t suit up tonight I wouldn’t recommend making this wager.

Bradley Beal is also set to return for the Suns and that shouldn’t be overlooked, either.

He’s averaging 17.8 PPG and Phoenix is 7-2 when he’s in the lineup.

The Lakers have been streaky this season and are coming off consecutive home losses to the Orlando Magic and Denver Nuggets after winning six straight.

But the teams L.A. beat during that win streak were all bottom-feeders (Sixers, Raptors, Grizzlies, Spurs, Pelicans, Jazz) and I expect it to lose again tonight.

SGP legs

Durant over 22.5 points (-127): If Durant wasn’t coming off an injury this line would be a must-hit.

The future Hall of Famer is averaging 27.6 PPG and has cleared this mark in seven of nine games. That includes a pair of 30-point performances against the Lakers.

Will KD be on a minutes restriction? That’s unclear. But if he is I don’t expect it to be severe, especially considering he played 39.6 minutes a night before going down.

Los Angeles is allowing the fourth-most points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Knecht over 1.5 threes (-195): Knecht is earning his playing time.

This year’s No. 17 overall pick has been a lightning rod from beyond the arc in November, averaging 2.6 threes on 5.5 attempts per game (48.3%).

He’s cashed this bet in five of his last six games and is playing 33.3 minutes a night in that span.

The Suns allow teams to shoot 37.7% from deep, which is the fourth-highest rate in basketball.

Knecht is in great shape to clear this modest line.

Picks made at 10:37 a.m. on 11/26/24.

Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards headline Tuesday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Wembanyama is heating up and gets a prime stat-stuffing matchup against the Utah Jazz. In Minnesota, Edwards should clear his 3-point total despite facing a stingy Houston Rockets defence.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 26.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Wembanyama over 36.5 points and rebounds (-114)

This is a huge number for most NBA players but it’s one Wembanyama has been smashing lately.

• Wembanyama is 4-1 against this line in his last five games
  
• While averaging 32.2 points and 11.4 rebounds (43.6 PR)
  
• On 53.6% shooting from the field (44.4% from deep)

It’s worth noting the second-year centre missed three games between his 28-point, 14-rebound performance against the Los Angeles Lakers on Nov. 15 and his 25-point, seven-rebound performance against the Golden State Warriors on Saturday.

That was Wemby’s worst shooting night in a while (9-of-21) but I won’t let it dissuade me from backing him this evening.

He still played 34 minutes and took 21 shots, which is encouraging.

And now Wembanyama gets to go up against a Utah Jazz team that is already looking ahead to the draft lottery.

Utah has the fifth-worst defensive rating in basketball and is allowing the second-most points and eighth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Wembanyama had 24 points and 16 rebounds when he played the Jazz earlier this month.

Quick pick

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-130): Let’s get the ugly out of the way: This is an awful matchup for Edwards.

• The Rockets have the second-best defensive rating in the NBA
• And the seventh-lowest opponent 3-point percentage (34.3)
• Teams attempt the fourth-fewest 3s per game against Houston (34.7)

With that said, Edwards has been letting it fly from beyond the arc with great success.

Minnesota’s superstar guard is making a league-best 4.9 threes per night on 11.1 attempts (43.8%). When targeting a 3-point prop you typically want either volume or accuracy — and he has both.

Edwards has gone over this mark in 13 of 16 games with three 3PM in two of the outliers. I don’t care how good Houston’s defence is, I’ll ride with that hit rate.

Picks made a 9:07 a.m. ET on 11/26/2024.

Tonight’s marquee NBA matchup features the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic is in the midst of his best season ever, which is saying a lot. I’m backing him to clear his point total at home and also expect OG Anunoby to be a menace on defence.

Check out my Knicks vs. Nuggets prop picks for Nov. 25.

Knicks vs. Nuggets prop picks

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Best Bet: Jokic over 27.5 points (-120)

Jokic is fresh off his third MVP award in the past four seasons, and somehow, he’s still getting better.

The Serbian superstar is averaging career highs in points (30.3), rebounds (13.9), assists (11.3) and 3-point percentage (56.3%).

• Jokic has scored 30+ points in four straight games
• In that span, he’s shooting 64.5% from the field and 69.2% from deep
• He’s 8-4 against this line on the season with 27 and 26-point performances mixed in

Simply put, the man has been unstoppable. And while you might think the Knicks represent a tough matchup, that hasn’t been the case this year.

New York had the ninth-best defensive rating last season but is 21st through 16 games.

The squad has particularily struggled to defend the short midrange (shots from four to 14 feet), allowing opponents to shoot 45.5% from that area of the court, which ranks 29th in the NBA, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Jokic takes 35% of his shots from there, which ranks in the 88th percentile of all NBA players.

Key stat: Jokic has cleared this mark in five of his last six games.

Quick pick

Anunoby over 2.5 blocks and steals (-112): Anunoby was getting some Defensive Player of the Year love with the Knicks last season before getting injured in late January.

It was well deserved, as the former Toronto Raptor was averaging 1.8 steals and 1.1 blocks with the squad over a 14-game sample.

He’s not quite back to that level this year but is still averaging a healthy 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocks per game. And he’s coming off a two-block, three-steal night against the Utah Jazz.

Anunoby is always a good bet to get his hands in the way. He’s had a steal in 14 of 16 starts with two-plus steals in nine of those games.

He should get a steal or two tonight and the Nuggets are allowing the second-most blocks per game to small forwards (1.12), according to StatMuse.

Picks made at 1:02 p.m. ET 11/25/2024.

The Sacramento Kings host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Monday’s NBA nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento has lost three straight and is on a back-to-back but I’m staying clear of picking a side. Instead, bet on DeMar DeRozan, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams in a +285 ticket.

Check out my Thunder vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 25.

Thunder vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: DeRozan over 3.5 rebounds + Gilgeous-Alexander over 5.5 assists + Williams over 1.5 threes (+285)

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DeRozan over 3.5 rebounds (-137): I think this is a smash play at -137 and am also eyeing the over on DeRozan’s 4.5 rebound prop at +163.

The veteran small forward is averaging 4.3 boards this season and has at least five rebounds in four straight games. Overall, he’s cleared this mark in eight of 14 contests while playing 36.4 minutes a night.

OKC has been brutal on the glass for the last two seasons and sits dead last in rebounding rate.

Isaiah Hartenstein made his Thunder debut on Nov. 20 and picked up 14 rebounds, so that’s bound to change moving forward. But still, that’s only one man and he’s not going to play the full 48 minutes.

The Thunder give up the third-most rebounds to small forwards per game (9.18), per Fantasy Pros, and I expect DeRozan to be active on the glass.

SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander over 5.5 assists (-152): Gilgeous-Alexander is a scorer first and foremost but he’s elevated his game as a passer over the last two seasons.

The Canadian superstar averaged a career-best 6.2 assists per game last season and is sitting at 6.3 so far. He’s also averaging 12.9 potential assists per game, which ranks 13th in the league according to NBA.com.

SGA had at least four assists in 14 straight games and is 8-6 against this line in that span, with two eight-assist games in his last three outings.

Sacramento is a middling defensive team that gives up the seventh-most assists per game to point guards.

Williams over 1.5 threes (-286): The Kings’ biggest defensive weakness this season has been containing the perimeter.

Sacramento is letting opponents shoot 37.7% from beyond the arc, which is tied for the third-highest rate in the NBA.

OKC averages the eighth-most 3-point attempts per game and Williams is my pick to take advantage.

The third-year forward is shooting 39.0% from deep (2.0-of-5.1 per night) and just hit five 3s against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Picks made at 10:08 a.m. on 11/25/24.