I’ve got a three-pack of best bets for Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day NFL slate.
The pregame narrative: I’m backing two NFC North teams — the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers — alongside New York Giants running back Tyrone Tracy.
Check out the best NFL Week 13 best bets for American Thanksgiving.
NFL Week 13 best bets
Go to full NFL Week 13 betting markets.
Best bet: Tracy over 64.5 rushing yards (-118)
Last week’s game script did not work in Tracy’s favour.
The Giants were down 30-0 heading into the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tracy was temporarily benched after fumbling away a red zone carry.
The fact that Brian Daboll decided to pull one of his only productive players from the game didn’t make sense to me at the time and shouldn’t impact his usage on Thursday.
Tracy turned nine carries into 42 yards against the Bucs (4.7 YPC). He had cleared this line in three straight games before that:
- Week 10 vs. Panthers: 18 carries, 103 yards (5.7 YPC)
- Week 9 vs. Commanders: 16 carries, 66 yards (4.1 YPC)
- Week 8 vs. Steelers: 20 carries, 145 yards (7.3 YPC)
The rookie RB has been a horse and I expect him to have an absolute field day against Dallas’ defence.
The Cowboys are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (150.5) and rank last in defensive EPA per rush, per RBSDM.com.
Key stat: Tracy is averaging 79.9 rushing yards per game since being named the starter in Week 5.
NFL Thanksgiving Day picks
Packers over 25.5 points (-112): Green Bay was dealt a favourable hand last week when it hosted a San Francisco 49ers team without Nick Bosa and Brock Purdy.
The Packers took advantage and laid down a 38-10 beating, securing their sixth win in seven games.
- The Jordan Love-led offence is averaging 26.3 PPG during this 6-1 run.
- Green Bay is 3-4 against this line in that span but finished with exactly 24 points twice.
I’m feeling really good about where the Packers are at right now and expect them to keep chugging against a Dolphins defence which can’t be trusted.
Miami has held its last three opponents to a combined 49 points. But it also faced the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots in that span.
It’s given up 28-plus points to the Buffalo Bills (twice), Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans this year.
Bears +11 (-130): Betting against the Detroit Lions right now is terrifying but I’ll take the Bears to cover 10 points and a hook in a divisional showdown.
Chicago has just lost consecutive divisional games against the Packers and Minnesota Vikings by a combined four points and is 9-2 against this line on the season.
Caleb Williams is starting to play better and is taking care of the football. He’s thrown for 571 yards in the last two games with a 70.5% completion rate.
The rookie has only thrown one interception since Week 3. That’ll be key to keeping a score-happy Lions offence off the field.
As good as Detroit has been, it is still 5-6 against a -11 line this season.
Picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 11/26/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.