The Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings meet tonight in the last game of the NBA Cup’s group stage.
The pregame narrative: Houston has punched its ticket to the next round while Sacramento (0-3 NBA Cup record) is out. I’m backing Jabari Smith Jr. and Fred VanVleet but still expect the Kings to cover a hefty alt spread at home.
Check out my Rockets vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 3.
Rockets vs. Kings predictions
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Parlay: Kings +7.5 + Brooks over 1.5 threes + VanVleet over 5.5 assists (+340)
Kings +7.5 (-435): Sacramento could probably care less that it’s out of contention for the NBA Cup, but it still needs to turn things around quickly.
The Kings have lost six of their last seven games and are now 9-12 on the season.
But they’ve still covered this number 17 times (80.9%) and are often in it right ’till the end.
Houston is on a three-game winning streak but has failed to cover this number in each contest, with two requiring overtime.
All in all, the Rockets (15-6) are just 9-12 against this number and just 1-8 against it on the road.
All signs point to this being a closely contested affair, so I’ll happily bank eight extra points with the home side.
SGP legs
Smith over 1.5 threes (-103): A big reason the Kings have been losing games is their atrocious 3-point defence.
- 28th in opponent 3PT% (38.2)
- 28th in opponent 3s attempted/game (39.5)
Teams are shooting with volume and accuracy from deep against Sacramento and I want to exploit that.
Smith doesn’t take a ton of 3s but he’s cleared this line in five of his last six games, making three-plus 3s in four of those contests.
The third-year power forward is shooting 37.7% from deep since Nov. 1 and has the perfect matchup to bring that a couple of notches higher.
VanVleet over 5.5 assists (-124): VanVleet has a consistent floor as a facilitator.
He’s recorded five or more assists in 13 of his last 15 games, clearing this mark seven times. The only times he recorded fewer than five assists was in a pair of games against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
OKC has the best defensive rating in basketball and allows the fifth-fewest assists per game to point guards, per Fantasy Pros.
Sacramento is 17th in defensive rating and allows the eighth-most APG to point guards.
VanVleet is averaging 6.2 assists on the season and should have an above-average night against a below-average defence.
Picks made at 1:10 p.m. on 12/03/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.