The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs close Sunday’s slate with a divisional match at Arrowhead Stadium.
The pregame narrative: Los Angeles and Kansas City rank first and eighth, respectively, in scoring defence but I’m taking the over. Expect Justin Herbert to be active as a passer, too.
Check out my Chargers vs. Chiefs best bets for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 8.
Chargers vs. Chiefs best bets
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Best Bet: Herbert over 33.5 pass attempts (-106)
Herbert hasn’t been asked to throw the ball much this year, as John Harbaugh has rode a strong running game and elite defence to victories.
But J.K. Dobbins is out and Kansas City has a ferocious front seven.
- KC allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game (87.8) and is fourth in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per rush.
- The Chiefs’ secondary isn’t as solid, allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game (224.1) and ranking 21st in defensive EPA per dropback.
Moving the ball downfield with Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal doesn’t seem feasible, so I expect Herbert to sling it.
But why not just take the over on his 20.5 completions prop? Well, Herbert sits 24th in completion percentage but that doesn’t tell the whole picture.
The Chargers’ quarterback ranks 10th in on-target throws (78.5%) but has the fourth-highest drop rate (7.1%), per Pro Football Reference.
I don’t entirely trust Los Angeles’ receiving corps to produce — especially in the cold at Arrowhead — so taking the over on Herbert’s pass attempts is my preferred prop bet.
Key stat: Herbert has cleared this line in two of his last three games.
Quick pick
Over 43 points (-109): With two strong defences matching up, taking the over might seem daunting. But this is a clearable number and neither unit is performing at its best right now.
Los Angeles just held the Atlanta Falcons to 13 points on the road but that required a four-interception meltdown from Kirk Cousins.
Before that, the Chargers allowed 30 and 27 points to the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, respectively.
The Chiefs’ offence is looking better with Isaiah Pacheco and DeAndre Hopkins in the mix and I think they can get cooking at home.
Aidan O’Connell, of all people, put up 340 yards and two passing TDs against the Chiefs last week. Prior to that, KC coughed up 27 points to the Carolina Panthers and 30 to the Buffalo Bills.
Picks made at 2:27 p.m. ET 12/06/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.