The Toronto Raptors host Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has won four straight home games but OKC is among the league’s best on both ends of the court. I expect the Thunder to win and make Scottie Barnes’ night difficult. Also, back Isaiah Hartenstein to score.
Check out my Thunder vs. Raptors prop picks for Dec. 5.
Thunder vs. Raptors prop picks
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Best Bet: Barnes under 37.5 points/rebounds/assists (-112)
Barnes has been on a rampage since returning from injury on Nov. 21. Check out his numbers over the last seven games:
- 23.6 PPG
- 7.9 APG
- 8.9 RPG
- 4-3 vs. this line
Toronto’s franchise player has cleared this mark in three straight and is coming off a season-high 35-point outing … so why fade him now?
Without diminishing his most recent performance, we have to recognize it came against an Indiana Pacers team with the sixth-worst defensive rating in the NBA.
The Thunder own the league’s best defensive rating, allow the fourth-fewest assists per game, and have been a much better rebounding team since Hartenstein made his debut.
This is a nightmare matchup for Barnes in every sense, especially as a scorer.
OKC has the third-best midrange defence in the NBA, according to Cleaning the Glass. Barnes takes 45% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 100th percentile for all players.
Key stat: Barnes is 0-5 against this line in his last five vs. the Thunder.
Quick pick
Hartenstein over 12.5 points (-121): Toronto has struggled to defend the rim this season.
- The Raptors allow the 11th-most paint points per game.
- Toronto is giving up the 10th-most points per game to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.
I backed Hartenstein a few days ago and it blew up in my face. He scored just four points on seven field-goal attempts in a blowout win against the Utah Jazz.
But the big man was rolling before that, clearing this line in four of five games while averaging 15.2 PPG. I expect him to have a solid game tonight.
Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET 12/05/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.