The Golden State Warriors look to extend their dominance over the Houston Rockets to the NBA Cup on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: Golden State has won 15 straight against Houston and I don’t see that streak ending tonight. Backing Alperen Sengun and fading Steph Curry on teased lines brings this SGP to +390 thanks to some negative correlation.
Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 11.
Warriors vs. Rockets predictions
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Parlay: Warriors moneyline + Curry under 5.5 threes + Sengun over 18.5 points (+380)
Warriors moneyline (+108): The last time the Rockets beat the Warriors was on Feb. 20, 2020.
You know, back before COVID and when James Harden and Russell Westbrook were still on the team.
It’s been a while and I can’t see a reversal of fortune tonight. Golden State finds a way whenever it plays Houston and has already logged a pair of wins over the Rockets this season with Curry sidelined.
The Warriors’ sharpshooter is back in the mix tonight and that’s obviously a boon.
It’s worth noting these teams are trending in opposite directions. Golden State is 2-6 in its last eight while Houston is 5-3.
But I can’t overlook this dominant head-to-head history and will role with the Warriors tonight.
SGP legs
Curry under 5.5 threes (-335): Curry is the greatest shooter of all time but this is a huge ask against a great defence.
The veteran point guard is averaging 4.2 threes on 10.0 attempts — which is still elite — but those are his lowest marks in the last five seasons.
Curry has gone under 5.5 threes in 15 of 18 starts and now faces a team with the fifth-best 3-point defence (34.1%) in the NBA.
He can still go 5-for-10 from deep, have a great night, and cash this under.
Sengun over 18.5 points (-215): Sengun is officially listed as questionable with knee soreness but he hasn’t missed a game this season so I’m not too worried.
The fourth-year centre is averaging 18.5 points on 47.3% shooting, which are solid numbers but down a tick from last season.
Golden State owns the second-worst mid-range defence (45.3%) in the NBA while Sengun ranks in the 87th percentile for midrange shot frequency (43.0%), according to Cleaning the Glass.
Sengun has cleared this total in three of his last four home games.
Picks made at 10:03 a.m. on 12/11/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.