I’ve got three prop bets from Saturday’s NBA Cup semifinal games.
The pregame narrative: The first matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks should feature plenty of offence. Look for Damian Lillard and Dyson Daniels to produce before fading the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Jalen Williams against the Houston Rockets.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 14.
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Best bet: Lillard over 3.5 threes (-106)
This game has “Dame Time” written all over it.
The Hawks are off to an improbable 14-12 start after an awful 2023-24 season. But they’re still a mediocre defensive team — 18th in defensive rating — that cannot defend the 3-point line.
Atlanta allows the most 3s per game (15.9) at the highest rate (38.2%).
Lillard faced off against the Hawks on Dec. 4 and canned five triples in a losing effort. That was part of a five-game stretch where he made at least four threes each time out.
Milwaukee’s point guard has gone under this mark in two straight but only attempted five threes (2-of-5) against the Orlando Magic in Tuesday’s quarterfinal match.
The Hawks allow the 10th-fewest paint points per game which should make life tougher for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Greek Freak will still get his shots up but I wouldn’t be surprised if he deferred to Lillard as the alpha dog in tonight’s matchup.
Key stat: Lillard is shooting 43.5% from deep in three games against Atlanta since joining the Bucks.
Quick picks
Daniels over 11.5 points (-109): The one problem with Lillard these days is his defence. Milwaukee’s efficiency on that end has taken a nosedive since he was acquired for Jrue Holiday.
Point guards and shooting guards have been feasting against the Bucks, as Milwaukee allows the most and 10th-most points to them on a nightly basis, per Fantasy Pros.
I don’t want to back Trae Young, whose scoring is down in favour of monstrous assist numbers.
But I do like Daniels’ chances of clearing this very modest total.
The first-year Hawk is averaging a career-best 13.5 points per game and has cleared this line in two of his last five games, coming within a basket of topping it in the other three.
Atlanta plays at the third-fastest pace in the NBA so I expect Daniels to get plenty of looks in a game with a 229.0 over/under.
Williams under 5.5 rebounds (-110): This is a nightmare matchup for Williams as the Rockets own the best rebounding rate in basketball (52.6%).
OKC’s power forward has cleared this line in three straight but fell under it in the three games prior.
That includes a five-rebound outing against the Rockets on Dec. 1.
Isaiah Hartenstein is the Thunder’s best rebounder and should be the most active on the glass against a rabid group of Rockets.
Williams is averaging 5.3 rebounds per game with Hartenstein in the lineup compared to 6.6 rebounds per game when he was sidelined.
He also fell under this line against the Rockets on Nov. 8.
Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 12/14/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.