Two of the league’s best defensive teams meet in Oklahoma City for Saturday’s NBA Cup semifinal.
The pregame narrative: The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder play suffocating brands of basketball, which has me fading Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Fred VanVleet while backing Houston on an alt spread.
Check out my Rockets vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 14.
Rockets vs. Thunder predictions
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Parlay: Rockets +9.5 + Gilgeous-Alexander under 2.5 threes + VanVleet under 6.5 assists (+270)
Rockets +9.5 (-205): Ime Udoka has the Rockets playing some serious basketball.
Houston is 17-8 with the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. Oklahoma City ranks first and that makes me think this will be a rock fight.
The Rockets have the fourth-best ATS record (16-9) in the league, which includes a 5-2 ATS record as an underdog.
OKC did beat Houston by 19 points at home on Nov. 19 but that seemed to be a wakeup call.
Since then, the Rockets are 12-4 and have covered this number in every game. That includes a win over the Thunder in Houston on Dec. 1.
I expect a close, defensively-minded game with both teams healthy.
SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander under 2.5 threes (-190): Gilgeous-Alexander is taking more 3s than ever before but I still want to fade him tonight.
- The Canadian guard is attempting 6.3 threes per game after putting up 3.6 last season.
- SGA is making 2.1 threes a night and has fallen under this mark in 15/24 starts (62.5%).
He did drain 3-of-7 against the Rockets earlier this month but went 1-of-2 against them earlier in the season. I expect SGA to be more focused on doing damage from the midrange.
Houston gives up the third-fewest 3s per game (11.8) at the fifth-lowest rate (34.0%).
VanVleet under 6.5 assists (-205): I mentioned earlier that OKC owned the best net rating in basketball. Unsurprisingly, it also gives up the fourth-fewest assists per game (24.3).
VanVleet is a capable passer, averaging 5.9 assists on the season. But he’s gone under this teased-up mark in 14 of 23 games, including both against the Thunder.
He recorded just five total assists in those games and has now gone under this mark in five straight games versus OKC.
I don’t see why things would be any different tonight.
Picks made at 10:28 a.m. on 12/14/24.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.