Two AFC West teams trending in opposite directions meet in Week 16 on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Denver Broncos have won four straight while the Los Angeles Chargers have dropped three of their last four. Bet on the Broncos to cover and Bo Nix to clear his passing total.
Check out my Broncos vs. Chargers best bets for TNF on Dec. 19.
Broncos vs. Chargers best bets
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Best Bet: Broncos +3 (-120)
This seems like a no-brainer considering the way each team is playing.
Los Angeles’ offence was never elite but now looks rudderless. The Chargers have scored 17 points in three straight games and rank 30th in RBSDM.com’s offensive EPA per play since American Thankgiving.
The only thing separating them from a four-game losing streak is Kirk Cousins.
In Week 13, the Atlanta Falcons quarterback threw four interceptions in a game where his offence out-gained the Chargers 350-to-187.
Even with the boatload of turnovers, L.A. only managed to win 17-13.
J.K. Dobbins is back on the IR after suffering an MCL sprain and I don’t expect a backfield comprised of Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal to produce. L.A.’s receiving room — which has the third-highest drop rate in the NFL — isn’t trustworthy, either.
Then there’s Denver, which has been boatracing teams with rookie Nix at the helm.
- The Broncos have won four straight games.
- Over that stretch, they’re averaging 34.8 points and 329.5 yards per game.
- They lost to the Chargers in Denver on Oct. 13 but are 6-2 since, covering this number in seven of those games.
And it’s not like SoFi Stadium is a tough venue to play in. I expect to see more orange in the stands than blue on Thursday.
Key stat: Denver is a league-best 11-3 ATS.
Quick pick
Nix over 222.5 passing yards (-118): Los Angeles’ defence is the reason its in the playoff hunt but the unit is starting to teeter.
Baker Mayfield just threw for 288 yards and four touchdowns, marking the third time in the last five games a quarterback has cleared this total.
Several key members of the Chargers’ secondary such as Cam Hart and Elijah Molten are also listed as questionable after missing practice on Monday.
That could be precautionary on a short week but is worth monitoring.
Nix went under this total last week but had blown by it in the three games before that, logging 294, 273 and 307 passing yards.
Denver’s RB room has problems of its own with Javonte Williams underproducing and Jaleel McLaughlin listed as questionable.
I like the rookie’s chances of having another big game.
Picks made at 3:48 p.m. ET 12/17/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.