Kevin Durant and Victor Wembanyama headline Thursday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: I’m taking two of the league’s most physically gifted players to clear their point totals against bad defences.
Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 19.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Durant over 24.5 points (-130)
This seems like a smash spot for Durant, who enters Thursday’s contest against the Indiana Pacers averaging a team-high 25.7 points per game.
The veteran has had injury problems this season but played north of 33 minutes in both games since returning on Dec. 13. In those contests, he scored 30 and 20 points against the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively.
The Phoenix Suns have been off since Sunday, so KD will be well-rested tonight.
And Indiana is a team bettors should circle when looking to take overs. The Pacers play at the sixth-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the NBA.
But the main reason I love this wager is because of a soft spot in Indiana’s defence:
- Indiana has the fifth-worst mid-range defence (44.2%), according to Cleaning the Glass.
- Durant takes 51% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 96th percentile of all NBA players.
I expect Durant to go off in a game that could turn into a track meet.
Key stat: Indiana allows the most points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.
Quick picks
Wembanyama over 23.5 points (-125): Wembanyama has found his stroke after a slow start to the season. Check out his numbers over the last 12 games:
- 28.1 PPG
- 4.0 threes on 10.3 attempts
- 20+ points in 11/12 games
- 25+ points in 8/12 games
The 7-foot-4 phenom is a matchup nightmare for any defence and has done a surprising amount of damage from beyond the arc.
The Atlanta Hawks — who the Spurs host tonight — have the worst 3-point defence in basketball (37.9%) while playing at the third-fastest pace.
I don’t want to pay the -157 juice accompanying the over on Wembanyama’s 2.5 total for made 3s, so I’m riding with his point total instead.
Picks made at 3:53 p.m. ET on 12/19/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.