The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers kick off Week 16 with a Thursday Night Football showdown at SoFi Stadium.
The pregame narrative: I believe Denver’s defence will reign supreme tonight and that has me backing the Broncos on an alt spread alongside an alt under. Prop bets on Ladd McConkey and Courtland Sutton round out this +360 SGP.
Check out my Broncos vs. Chargers same-game parlay predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Broncos vs. Chargers same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Broncos +7.5 + Under 44.5 points + Sutton over 49.5 receiving yards + McConkey over 4.5 receptions (+360)
Broncos +7.5 (-295): I’m backing Denver +3 as my best bet tonight — here are the Coles Notes on why I like that play:
- Los Angeles is averaging 18.5 PPG in its last four games while ranking 30th in RBSDM.com’s offensive EPA per play.
- Denver has won four straight games while averaging 34.8 points and 329.5 yards per game.
- The Broncos are a league-best 11-3 ATS and have covered +3 in 6/7 games since losing to the Chargers on Oct. 13.
I’m bullish on Sean Payton’s group winning outright but am buying a boatload of points for security.
Denver covered this number against L.A. earlier this year (23-16 loss) and has only lost by eight-plus points once, on the road to the Baltimore Ravens.
Other parlay picks
Under 44.5 points (-167): The Chargers offence has been a mess since J.K. Dobbins (MCL sprain) went down with an injury.
L.A. has scored 17 points in three straight games while averaging 60.6 yards on the ground.
Denver’s defence is elite — ranking first in EPA per play — largely thanks to its secondary. The front seven is great too and its job will be much easier tonight.
Dobbins went for 96 yards and a touchdown when these teams last met.
Los Angeles’ defence just got smoked by Baker Mayfield but is still tied for the fewest points allowed per game (17.6) with Denver.
I can’t envision a scenario where this turns into a shootout.
McConkey over 4.5 receptions (-315): With no running game to speak of, McConkey should be busy on Thursday.
The rookie has been L.A.’s most reliable receiver and is getting force-fed by Justin Herbert.
He has five-plus catches in four straight games and has cashed this bet in nine of 14 games.
McConkey ranks in the 89th percentile for target share (22.7%) and has 25 more targets (88) than the next-closest Charger (Quentin Johnston, 63), per RotoWire.
Sutton over 49.5 receiving yards (-215): Sutton fell under this total last week, catching just three of his nine targets for 32 yards.
It was a disappointing effort but I’m encouraged by the volume. That marked the seventh straight game where the veteran wideout had eight-plus targets.
Sutton blew by this mark in each of the other six games, logging at least 70 receiving yards.
He gets targeted on 25.6% of routes run (91st percentile) and has an average depth of target of 13.0 yards (81st percentile).
Picks made at 8:53 a.m. on 12/19/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.