The Milwaukee Bucks will be shorthanded in their first game since winning the NBA Cup.
The pregame narrative: Damian Lillard is out, which is partially why I’m taking the Cleveland Cavaliers to win and the under on a teased-up game total. Prop bets on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Darius Garland round out this +320 wager.
Check out my Bucks vs. Cavaliers same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 20.
Bucks vs. Cavaliers predictions
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Parlay: Cavaliers moneyline + Under 230.5 points + Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds + Garland over 14.5 points (+320)
Cavaliers moneyline (-375): The Bucks are fresh off an NBA Cup victory but I’ll fade them tonight.
And that’s not exactly going out on a limb. Cleveland tops the NBA with a 23-4 record and owns the best net rating in the Eastern Conference (+10.3).
The Cavs are 14-1 at home while the Bucks are 4-7 on the road.
Milwaukee is 0-2 against Cleveland this season and will be without Lillard, who’s averaging 25.7 points per game and scored 41 and 36 against the Cavs.
Giannis is the best player on the court but won’t be able to do it all against Cleveland’s elite starting five and deep bench.
SGP legs
Under 230.5 points (-220): Milwaukee is missing a big-time scorer who doesn’t play much defence — that should immediately guide bettors toward the under.
Even with Lillard on the court, the Bucks have morphed into a strong defensive team.
- In the last 15 games, Milwaukee has the seventh-best defensive rating in basketball.
- The Bucks have the fourth-highest unders rate (57.7%) in the league.
Cleveland is a solid defensive team in its own right, with the ninth-best defensive rating and seventh-lowest opponent field goal percentage.
The under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these teams with nine of those matchups going under this alternate total.
Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds (-134): The Cavaliers are a solid rebounding team but the Greek Freak is matchup-proof.
Giannis is averaging exactly 11.5 rebounds per game — a benchmark he’s hit in four straight years and five of the last six — and is coming off a 19-board performance in the NBA Cup final.
He’s gone over this mark in four of his last five against the Cavaliers, averaging 15.0 rebounds per game and landing on 11 the one time he fell short.
His floor as a rebounder is high, recording double-digit boards in 19 of 23 games.
Garland over 14.5 points (-375): The last time Garland played the Bucks he dropped a season-high 39 points and shot 7-of-11 from deep.
That marked the fifth time in his last six meetings against Milwaukee where he scored at least 20 points.
The Bucks give up the most points per game to point guards, according to Fantasy Pros, and I expect Garland to clear this total even if Lillard’s replacement is more defensively responsible.
Cleveland’s floor general is averaging 20.3 PPG and has 15-plus points in 18 of 26 starts.
Picks made at 10:43 a.m. on 12/20/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.