Category: NBA

For tonight’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Sacramento Kings, I’ve got my eyes on a pair of star centres.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic isn’t just a bruiser inside, and his 3s prop is worth a look on Monday — even with extra juice. As for the Kings, look for Domantas Sabonis to make an impact as a passer.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Kings prop picks for Dec. 16.

Nuggets vs. Kings prop picks

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Best Bet: Sabonis over 5.5 assists (-118)

Sabonis is on a career-high scoring pace (21.3 PPG), which has caused his assist numbers to dip a bit this season.

But going over 5.5 assists is still in play for the ninth-year centre on any given night, and I view the Nuggets as one of the best possible matchups to make that happen.

• Denver has allowed the most assists per game among NBA teams this season.

• Sabonis has 7+ assists vs. Denver in four straight matchups (since December 2023).

Sabonis is averaging 6.0 assists, so he’s still on the right side of this number on an average night.

That’s nowhere near his assist volume of the past two years, mind you — 7.7 APG from 2022-24 — but it’s still solid.

Plus, Sabonis has typically been more of a pass-first, shoot-second guy when facing Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. In his past five matchups against Denver, Sabonis has averaged just 16.2 PPG.

Jokic, a fellow centre, has about 40 pounds on Sabonis. I can see how it’d be easier to dish to an outlet as opposed to trying to bully through a much bigger player.

Key stat: Sabonis has cashed this bet in 13 of 24 games this season.

Quick pick

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-150): This is definitely more juice than I’d prefer to put up with for a straight wager. But I have to give Jokic his flowers.

The big man has cashed this bet in 10 of his past 11 games, shooting 50.0% from 3-point range on just 4.5 attempts.

That type of efficiency doesn’t feel sustainable though, right? And it probably isn’t over the course of a full season.

But what if I told you Jokic has been even more efficient over Denver’s full slate of games so far? He’s shooting 51.2% from deep since opening night.

The other compelling piece is the matchup, as the Kings allow the second-highest 3PT% (37.7) and the second-most made 3s per game (15.0).

Picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET 12/16/2024.

The red-hot Memphis Grizzlies visit the Los Angeles Lakers for Sunday’s NBA nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Memphis is playing inspiring basketball at the moment and I expect that to continue with a win over the Lakers. Back Ja Morant to carry the offensive load and take the over on Anthony Davis’ rebounds prop in this +320 wager.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 15.

Grizzlies vs. Lakers predictions

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Parlay: Grizzlies moneyline + Morant over 31.5 points/assists + Davis over 10.5 rebounds (+320)

Grizzlies moneyline (-167): Watch out Western Conference, here come the Grizzlies.

Memphis has catapulted up the standings, climbing all the way to second in the conference off the back of a 10-1 run heading into Sunday.

The Lakers have been in the opposite camp, starting the season hot but losing eight of their last 11.

Unfortunately for L.A., it’s that time of year once again.

No, I’m not talking about the holiday season, but rather the time of year when LeBron James and Anthony Davis show up on the injury report before every game.

I do expect both to play but this is more of a point as to how the Lakers are banged up at the moment.

The Grizz have won four straight and I predict another win on the road on Sunday.

SGP legs

Morant over 31.5 points/assists (-115): Memphis’ point guard has been the team’s most impactful player during this strong run.

• Morant is 5-2 against this line over the past seven games.
  
• He has 28+ points in three of the past four.

The scoring uptick is what grabbed my interest as Morant is one fire, shooting 47.9% from the field over that seven-game stretch.

That is great efficiency from the point guard position.

The game total in this matchup is also the highest of the night (234.5), meaning there should be a lot of scoring.

L.A. allows the sixth-most assists to PGs per game (9.8) and I see Morant having a highly productive performance under the bright lights.

Davis over 10.5 rebounds (-235): This leg carries the most juice but it’s understandable looking at Davis’ rebounding numbers.

The big man averages 11.2 rebounds per game and cleared this line in seven of his past nine.

In his one previous matchup with the Grizzlies this season, Davis pulled down 14 boards in 32 minutes of action.

Davis averages 35.4 minutes per game, so 32 minutes is a relatively light night for the all-star.

If he plays up toward his average on Sunday, he could smash this line in typical AD fashion.

Picks made at 10:43 a.m. on 12/15/2024.

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A pair of strong Western Conference foes duke it out in the Bay Area on Sunday, where the Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: I’ve got points props on two of the biggest names in this matchup, Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving. I’m tailing one guard and fading the other.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Warriors prop picks for Dec. 15.

Mavericks vs. Warriors prop picks

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Best Bet: Irving under 23.5 points (-124)

Strong defence has allowed the Warriors to be a playoff-calibre team so far this season, and their work defending the 3-point line is particularly commendable:

• 1st in opponent 3PT%
• 3rd in opponent FG%
• 4th in defensive rating
• 6th in opponent PPG

Irving has been a remarkably efficient shooter so far this year (50.4/47.4/88.5), but he’s in for quite a test against Golden State.

In his lone matchup against Golden State so far this year, Irving finished with 21 points in 36 minutes. He was a modest 1-for-3 from beyond the arc, which was likely caused by the Warriors limiting opportunities from 3-point range.

Given that Irving is shooting better than 50.0% from the floor, you’d think he would smash this line all the time. But playing with Luka Doncic means you’re never the primary option on your own team.

Doncic has the NBA’s sixth-highest usage rate (31.8%). So Irving’s scoring opportunities are often capped, meaning he has to rely on high efficiency to finish with a scoring total in the 20s.

Irving is plenty capable of cashing this bet, but in a matchup against Golden State, I don’t believe it’s the likely outcome.

Key stat: Despite averaging 24.0 PPG this season, Irving has gone under this point total in 13 of 23 games (56.5%).

Quick pick

Curry over 24.5 points (-122): Curry’s season-long numbers don’t support this pick.

The 10-time all-star is averaging 22.8 PPG, his lowest in a non-injury-shortened season since 2011-12.

But he’s been a more productive scorer at home, and his best game of the year came against Dallas.

• Curry scored a season-high 37 points at home vs. the Mavericks on Nov. 12.

• He’s averaging 24.6 PPG at home (versus 21.8 PPG on the road).

• Curry has 25+ points in 3/4 games vs. Dallas since the start of last season.

As of 10:30 a.m., Curry (calf) was listed as questionable on the NBA’s injury report. That’s a situation to monitor, but if he’s a go, I think he can cash this bet.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 12/15/2024.

A trio of stars make up Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Devin Booker and Jaylen Brown are both solid picks to turn in productive performances, while Ja Morant is my fade candidate in a suboptimal matchup.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 15.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Booker over 9.5 rebounds/assists (+100)

Booker is in his fourth straight season averaging better than 9.5 rebounds/assists per game, so an even-money price at this number will pique my interest most nights.

Despite being listed as a shooting guard, Booker’s facilitation skills are on display plenty for the Phoenix Suns.

He’s second on the team in assists per game (6.5) and is second in potential assists per game (11.8), which means any pass that leads directly to a shot.

And though Booker isn’t a dominant force as a rebounder, he does his part as a 6-foot-6 guard.

Tonight’s matchup is against the Portland Trail Blazers, who allow the sixth-most rebounds per game to opponents. The Blazers also allow the fifth-most assists per game to opposing shooting guards, per Betting Pros.

Booker has averaged 10.9 RA since Halloween night and should have a nice opportunity to go over this total on Sunday.

Key stat: Booker has cashed this bet in four straight games against the Trail Blazers, which includes a nine-rebound, nine-assist outing against them in November.

Quick picks

Morant under 1.5 threes (-124): Morant has never been a high-volume shooter (or scorer) from 3-point range, and I wouldn’t expect that to change tonight against the Los Angeles Lakers.

Now in his sixth year, Morant is a career 31.8% shooter from deep, averaging 1.3 made 3s per game. This year, he’s averaging 1.5 makes on 31.9% efficiency.

In four games against the Lakers since January 2023, Morant is 6-for-21 (28.6%) from deep against L.A.

There are times when Morant is a fair pick to can multiple 3s, but it’d have to be a plus matchup. That’s not what I’m seeing for him on Sunday.

Brown over 22.5 points (-122): The Washington Wizards are an easy target, and Brown tends to take advantage.

• Since the 2022-23 season, Brown has scored 23+ points in five of seven matchups against Washington. That includes both meetings so far this season.

• As a whole this year, Brown is averaging 24.5 PPG despite a dip in shooting efficiency.

• Brown has 23+ points in 14/20 games this year.

Efficiently or not, I like him to clear this mark against a Wizards team that allows the most points in the NBA.

Picks made at 9:00 a.m. ET on 12/15/2024.