For tonight’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Sacramento Kings, I’ve got my eyes on a pair of star centres.
The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic isn’t just a bruiser inside, and his 3s prop is worth a look on Monday — even with extra juice. As for the Kings, look for Domantas Sabonis to make an impact as a passer.
Check out my Nuggets vs. Kings prop picks for Dec. 16.
Nuggets vs. Kings prop picks
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Best Bet: Sabonis over 5.5 assists (-118)
Sabonis is on a career-high scoring pace (21.3 PPG), which has caused his assist numbers to dip a bit this season.
But going over 5.5 assists is still in play for the ninth-year centre on any given night, and I view the Nuggets as one of the best possible matchups to make that happen.
- Denver has allowed the most assists per game among NBA teams this season.
- Sabonis has 7+ assists vs. Denver in four straight matchups (since December 2023).
Sabonis is averaging 6.0 assists, so he’s still on the right side of this number on an average night.
That’s nowhere near his assist volume of the past two years, mind you — 7.7 APG from 2022-24 — but it’s still solid.
Plus, Sabonis has typically been more of a pass-first, shoot-second guy when facing Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. In his past five matchups against Denver, Sabonis has averaged just 16.2 PPG.
Jokic, a fellow centre, has about 40 pounds on Sabonis. I can see how it’d be easier to dish to an outlet as opposed to trying to bully through a much bigger player.
Key stat: Sabonis has cashed this bet in 13 of 24 games this season.
Quick pick
Jokic over 1.5 threes (-150): This is definitely more juice than I’d prefer to put up with for a straight wager. But I have to give Jokic his flowers.
The big man has cashed this bet in 10 of his past 11 games, shooting 50.0% from 3-point range on just 4.5 attempts.
That type of efficiency doesn’t feel sustainable though, right? And it probably isn’t over the course of a full season.
But what if I told you Jokic has been even more efficient over Denver’s full slate of games so far? He’s shooting 51.2% from deep since opening night.
The other compelling piece is the matchup, as the Kings allow the second-highest 3PT% (37.7) and the second-most made 3s per game (15.0).
Picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET 12/16/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.