A pair of strong Western Conference foes duke it out in the Bay Area on Sunday, where the Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks.
The pregame narrative: I’ve got points props on two of the biggest names in this matchup, Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving. I’m tailing one guard and fading the other.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Warriors prop picks for Dec. 15.
Mavericks vs. Warriors prop picks
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Best Bet: Irving under 23.5 points (-130)
Strong defence has allowed the Warriors to be a playoff-calibre team so far this season, and their work defending the 3-point line is particularly commendable:
- 1st in opponent 3PT%
- 3rd in opponent FG%
- 4th in defensive rating
- 6th in opponent PPG
Irving has been a remarkably efficient shooter so far this year (50.4/47.4/88.5), but he’s in for quite a test against Golden State.
In his lone matchup against Golden State so far this year, Irving finished with 21 points in 36 minutes. He was a modest 1-for-3 from beyond the arc, which was likely caused by the Warriors limiting opportunities from 3-point range.
Given that Irving is shooting better than 50.0% from the floor, you’d think he would smash this line all the time. But playing with Luka Doncic means you’re never the primary option on your own team.
Doncic has the NBA’s sixth-highest usage rate (31.8%). So Irving’s scoring opportunities are often capped, meaning he has to rely on high efficiency to finish with a scoring total in the 20s.
Irving is plenty capable of cashing this bet, but in a matchup against Golden State, I don’t believe it’s the likely outcome.
Key stat: Despite averaging 24.0 PPG this season, Irving has gone under this point total in 13 of 23 games (56.5%).
Quick pick
Curry over 25.5 points (-118): Curry’s season-long numbers don’t support this pick.
The 10-time all-star is averaging 22.8 PPG, his lowest in a non-injury-shortened season since 2011-12.
But he’s been a more productive scorer at home, and his best game of the year came against Dallas.
- Curry scored a season-high 37 points at home vs. the Mavericks on Nov. 12.
- He’s averaging 24.6 PPG at home (versus 21.8 PPG on the road).
- Curry has 25+ points in 3/4 games vs. Dallas since the start of last season.
As of 10:30 a.m., Curry (calf) was listed as questionable on the NBA’s injury report. That’s a situation to monitor, but if he’s a go, I think he can cash this bet.
Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 12/15/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.