Category: NBA

Spurs vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions Dec. 13: Bet on Victor Wembanyama and the over at +265

Spurs vs. Trail Blazers predictions

The San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers provide NBA fans with Friday’s nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Neither team is trustworthy on the moneyline, so I’m taking the over on a teased-down total alongside prop bets on Victor Wembanyama and Jerami Grant.

Check out my Spurs vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 13.

Spurs vs. Trail Blazers predictions

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Parlay: Over 219.5 points + Wembanyama over 24.5 points + Grant over 12.5 points (+265)

Over 219.5 points (-195): Wembanyama is the odds-on favourite to win the Defensive Player of the Year but his teammates aren’t pulling their weight.

San Antonio is 19th in defensive rating and has gotten shelled in December.

  • The Spurs are allowing 124.8 PPG this month. They gave up 140 and 139 points to the Sacramento Kings and Chicago Bulls, respectively, last week.
  • The over on this total is 4-1 in San Antonio’s last five games and 7-2 in its last nine.

Portland sits 29th in offensive rating, so you would think this would be a nice spot for that trend to reverse.

But the 28th-ranked New Orleans Pelicans just put 116 points up against the Spurs on Sunday in a game that blew by this total.

Eight straight games between these teams have had 220-plus points.

SGP legs

Wembanyama over 24.5 points (-107): Wemby just eked by this line his last time out, scoring 25 points on 9-of-16 shooting against the Pelicans.

He’s averaging 28.9 points in his last 10 games and is 7-3 against this number.

The game before that stretch was against Portland, when Wembanyama netted just 12 points on 4-of-13 shooting. It was one of his worst performances of the year and I don’t expect that to be replicated.

Portland has the sixth-worst 3-point defence in the league (37.2%) and Wembanyama has been scoring from beyond the arc, shooting 40.5% on 11.1 attempts in his last 10 games.

At 7-foot-4, Wembanyama can also do damage in the paint and I expect him to fill the basket from all over the court.

Grant over 12.5 points (-240): Grant is coming off his worst game of the season, scoring just three points against the Los Angeles Lakers while shooting 1-of-12 from the field.

But the veteran small forward has been reliable against this number and has a solid matchup to get right.

He’s averaging 15.3 points per game and put up 21 against the Spurs earlier this season.

San Antonio has the 28th-ranked midrange defence (38.5%) and 20th-ranked 3-point defence (35.2%), according to Cleaning the Glass, and Grant takes 71% of his shots from those areas of the court.

Picks made at 12:30 p.m. on 12/13/24.

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Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks Dec. 13: Bet on Anthony Edwards and Austin Reaves

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves host a shorthanded Los Angeles Lakers team on Friday the 13th.

The pregame narrative: LeBron James is sidelined, which is a scary prospect for Los Angeles’ chances of winning. I expect Anthony Edwards to cook from beyond the arc and like Austin Reaves to stuff the stat sheet if he can play.

Check out my Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks for Dec. 13.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks

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Best Bet: Edwards over 3.5 threes (-150)

This is a steep but fair price to pay given the player and circumstances.

Edwards has been one of the league’s best 3-point shooters this year. He’s averaging 4.5 threes per game on 10.5 attempts, which ranks second and fourth among all players.

You rarely find a player with that type of volume and accuracy from deep, and that partially explains why Edwards is -143 to clear this number

He’s gone over this mark in 18 of 23 games (78.2%), which far exceeds the 58.9% implied probability of this wager.

And it’s not like Los Angeles is a great team at defending the arc.

The Lakers allow the seventh-most 3-pointers per game (14.0) at the fifth-highest rate (37.2%).

Edwards went 1-for-5 from deep against the Lakers in a blowout win earlier this month but also went 5-for-13 against them on opening night.

Key stat: Edwards has cleared this 3-point total in five of his last six games.

Quick pick

Reaves over 20.5 points and assists (-120): Reaves hasn’t played since Nov. 29 and is listed as questionable as of Friday’s 10:30 a.m. ET injury report.

But if he does suit up, I like his chances of smashing this number.

Los Angeles’ shooting guard is averaging a career-best 16.7 points per game and 4.5 assists (21.2 PA).

But those numbers went way up last year when LeBron was sidelined:

  • Reaves averaged 19.5 points and 5.2 assists (24.7 PA) in 11 games without LeBron in 2023-24.
  • He was 8-3 against this number in those games.

He should have a big role as a scorer and facilitator tonight.

Picks made at 10:22 a.m. ET 12/13/2024.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks Dec. 13: Bet on Anthony Edwards and Austin Reaves

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves host a shorthanded Los Angeles Lakers team on Friday the 13th.

The pregame narrative: LeBron James is sidelined, which is a scary prospect for Los Angeles’ chances of winning. I expect Anthony Edwards to cook from beyond the arc and like Austin Reaves to stuff the stat sheet if he can play.

Check out my Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks for Dec. 13.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks

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Best Bet: Edwards over 3.5 threes (-143)

This is a steep but fair price to pay given the player and circumstances.

Edwards has been one of the league’s best 3-point shooters this year. He’s averaging 4.5 threes per game on 10.5 attempts, which ranks second and fourth among all players.

You rarely find a player with that type of volume and accuracy from deep, and that partially explains why Edwards is -143 to clear this number

He’s gone over this mark in 18 of 23 games (78.2%), which far exceeds the 58.9% implied probability of this wager.

And it’s not like Los Angeles is a great team at defending the arc.

The Lakers allow the seventh-most 3-pointers per game (14.0) at the fifth-highest rate (37.2%).

Edwards went 1-for-5 from deep against the Lakers in a blowout win earlier this month but also went 5-for-13 against them on opening night.

Key stat: Edwards has cleared this 3-point total in five of his last six games.

Quick pick

Reaves over 23.5 PRA (-120): Reaves hasn’t played since Nov. 29 and is listed as questionable as of Friday’s 10:30 a.m. ET injury report.

But if he does suit up, I like his chances of smashing this number.

Los Angeles’ shooting guard is averaging a career-best 16.7 points per game to pair with 3.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists (24.7 PRA).

But those numbers went way up last year when LeBron was sidelined:

  • Reaves averaged 19.5 points, 5.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds (29.4 PRA) in 11 games without LeBron in 2023-24.
  • He was 8-3 against this number in those games.

Reaves cleared this total in his lone game against Minnesota this year and in three of his last five dating back to last season.

Picks made at 10:22 a.m. ET 12/13/2024.

Clippers vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions Dec. 13: Bet on Harden, Jokic in +270 SGP

Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions

For the third time this season, the Los Angeles Clippers face the Denver Nuggets.

The pregame narrative: The Clippers have enjoyed some success against the Nuggets so far, and I expect Friday’s game to at least be close. My +270 SGP also features prop bets on James Harden and Nikola Jokic.

Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 13.

Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions

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Parlay: Clippers +9.5 + Harden over 19.5 points + Jokic over 1.5 threes (+270)

Clippers +9.5 (-190): At 16-9-0 ATS this season, the Clippers have been one of the NBA’s best teams when it comes to covering the spread.

And though L.A. has suffered back-to-back home blowout losses entering Friday (vs. Timberwolves, vs. Rockets), I like this team to at least keep the game to a single-digit margin.

  • LAC is 2-0 vs. DEN this year, winning both games outright as an underdog.
  • The Clippers are 20-5 against a +9.5 spread.
  • The Nuggets are just 6-16 against a -9.5 spread.

The Clippers (14-11) also have a slightly better record than the Nuggets (12-10) and are neck-and-neck in terms of net rating.

This is a hearty sum of points to be able to palatably bank with L.A.

SGP legs

Harden over 19.5 points (-240): Harden was the hero when his Clippers downed the Nuggets on Dec. 1. For this parlay, I’m only asking him to be about half as productive now as he was then.

Harden piled up 39 points against Denver, which included a perfect 13-for-13 run at the free throw line.

Back on Oct. 26, Harden went 12-for-13 at the line as part of a 23-point performance against the Nuggets. Considering Denver allows the eighth-fewest free throw attempts per game, that’s a testament to The Beard’s ability to draw whistles.

Whether at the line, beyond the arc, or somewhere in between, I expect Harden to hit this very manageable scoring milestone again tonight.

He’s averaging 21.6 PPG and has cashed this bet in nine of his past 12 games.

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-127): I’d be happy to ride with this as a straight wager, as Jokic continues to produce with exceptional efficiency from 3-point land.

On the season, Jokic is averaging 2.2 makes on 50.0% shooting from deep. Among players attempting at least 4.0 threes per game, that’s the highest 3PT% in the NBA.

Volume is always somewhat of a concern, but that’s ticked up to 5.4 attempted 3s per game over his past eight games.

Jokic has now canned multiple 3s in nine of his past 10.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 12/13/24.

Raptors vs. Heat same-game parlay predictions Dec. 12: Bet on Tyler Herro, Jakob Poeltl at +310

Raptors vs. Heat predictions

The Toronto Raptors are taking their 7-18 record to South Beach for a meeting with the Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: Scottie Barnes is out and Miami is rolling. Back the Heat to cover an alternate spread alongside prop bets on Tyler Herro and Jakob Poeltl.

Check out my Raptors vs. Heat same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 12.

Raptors vs. Heat predictions

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Parlay: Heat -6.5 + Herro over 3.5 threes + Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (+310)

Heat -6.5 (-210): Toronto owns the second-best ATS record in the league (17-5) but I want to fade it against a surging Miami squad.

The Heat have won three straight games against the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns and Cleveland Cavaliers. All were at home and all were by at least nine points.

Overall, Miami is 7-3 in its last 10 and has covered the spread six times. That includes a 10-point win over the Raptors in Miami on Nov. 29.

Barnes played in that game but is out again after averaging 21.1 points, 8.7 rebounds and 8.0 assists since returning from an orbital bone fracture.

The Raps went 2-9 with him sidelined and I expect them to struggle again tonight.

SGP legs

Herro over 21.5 points (-205): I love Herro’s chances of clearing this teased-down total.

The sharpshooting guard is averaging 24.2 points on 47.7% shooting and has already torched the Raptors twice.

He put up 31 and 23 points against Toronto shooting a combined 10-of-22 from beyond the arc.

That type of 3-point production has come to be expected from Herro, who is shooting 42.2% on 9.9 attempts per game.

This is a line Herro has cleared in five of his last seven games.

Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (-167): Poeltl is having his best season as a pro, averaging career highs in points (15.9) and rebounds (11.6).

  • Poeltl’s 11.6 rebounds/game are the fifth-most in the NBA.
  • Toronto’s centre has had 10+ rebounds in 17/24 games.

Poeltl has been stuffing the stat sheet and will have more opportunities with Barnes sidelined. He has covered this number in three straight games with Barnes out, putting up 15, 12 and 18 rebounds.

On the season he is 5-3 against this line with Barnes out.

The Heat are a below-average team on the glass (19th in rebounding rate) so I expect Poeltl to clean up.

Picks made at 12:31 p.m. on 12/12/24.

NBA schedule, odds and betting lines Dec. 13: Cavaliers heavy favourites at home, Grizzlies look to stay hot

NBA schedule

Friday’s NBA slate features eight games.

The latest: The Brooklyn Nets travel to take on the Memphis Grizzlies, who are seeking their fourth-straight win. Elsewhere, the Cleveland Cavaliers host the dreadful Washington Wizards.

Check out our basketball betting lines and NBA schedule for Dec. 13.

NBA schedule: Dec. 13

Visit all of tonight’s NBA markets. Click on game odds below to bet now.

Indiana Pacers vs. Philadelphia 76ers

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Washington Wizards vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

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Brooklyn Nets vs. Memphis Grizzlies

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Charlotte Hornets vs. Chicago Bulls

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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets

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Phoenix Suns vs. Utah Jazz

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San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers

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Betting insights

  • The Wizards recently snapped a 16-game losing streak but got right back in the loss column when they took a 28-point beating to the Grizzlies on Sunday. Cleveland isn’t exactly a slump-busting team to go up against, as it owns a league-best 21-4 record. The Cavs also carry an 11-3-0 ATS record as a home favourite. Max Strus is expected to make his season debut Friday night.
  • Minnesota hosts the Lakers in an 8-seed vs. 9-seed showdown in the West. L.A. has covered just three times in the past 13 games, with a 2-5-0 ATS record as the away underdog this season. The T-Wolves have the slight edge in the head-to-head battle, taking six of the previous 10 games.
  • The 76ers host the deteriorating Indiana Pacers. After an Eastern Conference finals berth last season, the Pacers are 10-15 and carry an embarrassing 3-11 record on the road. Joel Embiid doesn’t have any injury designation and is coming off a promising 31 points in 33 minutes against the Chicago Bulls on Sunday.
  • It seems like the Nuggets haven’t quite found their groove yet this season. Normally a perennial championship contender, Denver is seventh in the West with a 12-10 record. The LA Clippers have won the last four meetings against the Nuggets and hold a 16-9-0 ATS record on the year. Denver owns the fourth-worst ATS record in the NBA (8-13-1).
  • Phoenix hopes to snap a three-game losing streak as they travel to Utah to face the Jazz. The Suns have dominated the matchup lately, taking eight of the last 10 meetings. The Jazz are bottom five in offensive and defensive rating, with a 2-9 home record this season.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 12: Bet on De’Aaron Fox, Cade Cunningham in three-game slate

NBA prop bets

The Sacramento Kings face the New Orleans Pelicans in the third and final NBA game on Thursday’s schedule, and I’ve got two prop bets from the game.

The pregame narrative: De’Aaron Fox and Herbert Jones both draw enticing matchups that have me eyeing overs on their prop markets. In Boston, look for Cade Cunningham to rack up assists against the Celtics.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 12.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Fox over 6.5 assists (+100)

The Kings are a rare case in which their centre (Domantas Sabonis) averages more assists per game than their point guard (Fox).

But Fox’s involvement as a passer has trended up over the past month or so, and it’s at a point where this prop market is interesting to me.

  • Since Nov. 10, Fox has averaged 12.8 potential assists per game, which accounts for all passes that lead directly to shots.
  • In nine games before that, he’d only averaged 9.3 potential assists, according to NBA.com’s player tracking data.
  • Sabonis is averaging 8.9 potential assists since Nov. 10 — down from 12.0 beforehand.

Tonight’s matchup against the Pelicans should be a solid one for Fox to continue his pass-happy ways. The Pelicans allow the fifth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.9/game), per Betting Pros.

Though Fox will never monopolize the playmaking duties within the Kings’ starting five, he’s in a situation on Thursday that should lead to plenty of assists.

Key stat: Fox is 11-5 against this assist number in his past 16 games, averaging 6.9 APG in that span.

Quick picks

Jones over 1.5 threes (+100): Jones just returned from a shoulder injury three games ago, but he walked right back into a hearty workload and has played 37 minutes in back-to-back games.

He’s not a volume shooter, but at plus-money odds, I think canning multiple 3s should absolutely be attainable.

Jones, who shot 41.8% from deep last season, has cashed this bet in two of three games since his return. He’s 5-for-13 beyond the arc in that span.

The Kings are a grade-A matchup for any 3-point shooter, as they allow the second-most 3s per game (15.0) on the second-highest percentage (37.7%).

Cunningham over 8.5 assists (-150): I don’t mind backing Cunningham over 9.5 assists at +120, but this isn’t a prohibitive amount of juice to pay at a slightly lower line.

Cunningham takes more shots than anyone else on the Detroit Pistons, but he tallies the most assists, too. And he’s been fantastic against this line for quite a while.

  • 9+ assists in 13/14 games since Nov. 4
  • Coming off a season-high 15 assists
  • Averaging 9.4 APG on the year

Cunningham had 14 assists against Boston on Dec. 4 after posting 10 assists in the same matchup on Oct. 26.

Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 12/12/2024.

Kings vs. Pelicans same-game parlay predictions Dec. 12: Back Murphy and Missi at +310

Kings vs. Pelicans predictions

The Sacramento Kings take on the injury-riddled New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

The pregame narrative: Brandon Ingram is the latest Pelican to go down and will be sidelined indefinitely after suffering an ankle injury on Dec. 7. I expect Sacramento to win but am backing Trey Murphy and Yves Missi to produce.

Check out my Kings vs. Pelicans same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 12.

Kings vs. Pelicans predictions

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Parlay: Kings moneyline + Murphy over 2.5 threes + Missi over 9.5 rebounds (+310)

Kings moneyline (-245): Ingram was basically the only Pelican to stay healthy this year but now he’ll be joining Zion Williamson, Jose Alvarado and Jordan Hawkins on the bench.

The small forward was averaging 22.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game but that didn’t manifest itself in many wins.

The Pelicans are 5-20 with just one win in their last 10 games.

Sacramento hasn’t been great this season (12-13 record) but is coming off consecutive wins where it scored 140-plus points.

The Kings’ entire starting five is healthy and that should be enough to take down a Pelicans team with no depth to speak of.

SGP legs

Murphy over 2.5 threes (-225): Murphy had a tough November after missing the first 10 games of the season but is beginning to find his stroke.

  • November (7 GP): 29.9 3PT%, 1-6 against this line
  • December (5 GP): 40.0 3PT%, 5-0 against this line

An uptick in production is nice but it’s good to know Murphy was coming close even when he fell short of this line. The fourth-year shooting guard has nabbed at least two 3s in every game this season.

Sacramento has the second-worst opponent 3-point defence (37.7%) in the NBA.

Missi over 9.5 rebounds (-125): It looks like New Orleans found something with the 2024 No. 21 pick.

Missi has been thrust into the starting role and has been thriving, averaging 14.0 points and 10.6 rebounds in his last eight games.

The Baylor product has cleared this line in three of his last four, logging 12-plus boards in each of those games.

Sacramento is good but not great on the glass (12th in rebound rate) and I think Missi can continue to produce in his increased role.

Picks made at 8:59 a.m. on 12/12/24.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 12: Bet on De’Aaron Fox, Cade Cunningham in three-game slate

NBA prop bets

The Sacramento Kings face the New Orleans Pelicans in the third and final NBA game on Thursday’s schedule, and I’ve got two prop bets from the game.

The pregame narrative: De’Aaron Fox and Herbert Jones both draw enticing matchups that have me eyeing overs on their prop markets. In Boston, look for Cade Cunningham to rack up assists against the Celtics.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 12.

NBA prop bets

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Embed: #103210

Best bet: Fox over 6.5 assists (-104)

The Kings are a rare case in which their centre (Domantas Sabonis) averages more assists per game than their point guard (Fox).

But Fox’s involvement as a passer has trended up over the past month or so, and it’s at a point where this prop market is interesting to me.

  • Since Nov. 10, Fox has averaged 12.8 potential assists per game, which accounts for all passes that lead directly to shots.
  • In nine games before that, he’d only averaged 9.3 potential assists, according to NBA.com’s player tracking data.
  • Sabonis is averaging 8.9 potential assists since Nov. 10 — down from 12.0 beforehand.

Tonight’s matchup against the Pelicans should be a solid one for Fox to continue his pass-happy ways. The Pelicans allow the fifth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.9/game), per Betting Pros.

Though Fox will never monopolize the playmaking duties within the Kings’ starting five, he’s in a situation on Thursday that should lead to plenty of assists.

Key stat: Fox is 11-5 against this assist number in his past 16 games, averaging 6.9 APG in that span.

Quick picks

Jones over 1.5 threes (+107): Jones just returned from a shoulder injury three games ago, but he walked right back into a hearty workload and has played 37 minutes in back-to-back games.

He’s not a volume shooter, but at plus-money odds, I think canning multiple 3s should absolutely be attainable.

Jones, who shot 41.8% from deep last season, has cashed this bet in two of three games since his return. He’s 5-for-13 beyond the arc in that span.

The Kings are a grade-A matchup for any 3-point shooter, as they allow the second-most 3s per game (15.0) on the second-highest percentage (37.7%).

Cunningham over 8.5 assists (-137): I don’t mind backing Cunningham over 9.5 assists at +120, but this isn’t a prohibitive amount of juice to pay at a slightly lower line.

Cunningham takes more shots than anyone else on the Detroit Pistons, but he tallies the most assists, too. And he’s been fantastic against this line for quite a while.

  • 9+ assists in 13/14 games since Nov. 4
  • Coming off a season-high 15 assists
  • Averaging 9.4 APG on the year

Cunningham had 14 assists against Boston on Dec. 4 after posting 10 assists in the same matchup on Oct. 26.

Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 12/12/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 11: Back Jalen Brunson and fade Jalen Green in NBA Cup quarterfinals

NBA prop bets

The NBA Cup continues on Wednesday with two quarterfinal games.

The pregame narrative: With a berth in Saturday’s semifinals on the line, I have plays on Jalen Brunson, Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 11

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Brunson over 2.5 threes (-134)

Point guards generally do damage against the Atlanta Hawks and Brunson is one of the best in the NBA.

Brunson’s scoring is down on a deep and restocked New York Knicks roster, so I’m electing to back him on his 3-point prop.

Through 24 games, Brunson is averaging 2.7 triples on a career-high 43.2% from deep.

  • Brunson has cleared this in 5 of his last 6
  • ATL is last in the NBA in opponent 3P%
  • ATL allows second-most 3s to PGs

This game has a total of 237.5 points. We should expect plenty of scoring and Brunson to continue contributing from long range.

He attempted a season-high 11 threes against the Hawks in November, making four of them in a game that landed on 237 points.

Key stat: Brunson is 7-3 against this line in his last 10 games and is 14-10 against it on the season.

Quick picks

Green under 19.5 points (-112): The second game of tonight’s doubleheader has a total that’s 14 points lower than Hawks/Knicks.

That’s no surprise considering these are two of the top-rated defensive teams in the NBA. The Houston Rockets are second in defensive rating and the Golden State Warriors are right behind at fourth.

These teams met last week and combined for 192 points in a six-point win for Golden State. Green was held to 14 points on 4-of-16 shooting from the field.

He had a season-low seven points on a dreadful 2-of-13 line when he saw the Warriors in November.

Beyond that, the shooting guard has remained an inconsistent and inefficient scorer this season.

  • Green was 5-0 vs. this line in October, averaging 27.6 PPG.
  • Since then, Green is 6-13 vs. this line while averaging 17.4/game.

Green is shooting career lows from the field (39.2%) and perimeter (32.8%).

Smith over 7.5 rebounds (-112): Smith’s minutes are up significantly in December, logging an average of 36.8 per game through four contests.

He has corralled double-digit rebounds twice and landed on seven in the other two, including against these same Warriors he’ll see tonight.

Smith also had seven versus Golden State when the teams met in November.

The 21-year-old has not been a particularly strong over play against this number, clearing it nine times in 24 games. But it’s important to note he was getting nearly 10 fewer minutes per game last month.

Smith averaged 8.1 rebounds in last year’s sophomore year and would have extra opportunities on the glass if either Alperen Sengun or Steven Adams are sidelined (both are questionable as of Wednesday morning).

Picks made at 12:28 p.m. ET on 12/11/2024.