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Best NBA prop bets Dec. 11: Back Jalen Brunson and fade Jalen Green in NBA Cup quarterfinals

The NBA Cup continues on Wednesday with two quarterfinal games.

The pregame narrative: With a berth in Saturday’s semifinals on the line, I have plays on Jalen Brunson, Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 11

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Best bet: Brunson over 2.5 threes (-136)

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Point guards generally do damage against the Atlanta Hawks and Brunson is one of the best in the NBA.

Brunson’s scoring is down on a deep and restocked New York Knicks roster, so I’m electing to back him on his 3-point prop.

Through 24 games, Brunson is averaging 2.7 triples on a career-high 43.2% from deep.

Brunson cleared this in 5 of his last 6
ATL is last in the NBA in opponent 3P%
ATL allows second-most 3s to PGs

This game has a total of 237.5 points. We should expect plenty of scoring and Brunson to continue contributing from long range.

He attempted a season-high 11 threes against the Hawks in November, making four of them in a game that landed on 237 points.

Key stat: Brunson is 7-3 against this line in his last 10 games and is 14-10 against it on the season.

Quick picks

Green under 19.5 points (-113): The second game of tonight’s doubleheader has a total that’s 14 points lower than Hawks/Knicks.

That’s no surprise considering these are two of the top-rated defensive teams in the NBA. The Houston Rockets are second in defensive rating and the Golden State Warriors are right behind at fourth.

These teams met last week and combined for 192 points in a six-point win for Golden State. Green was held to 14 points on 4-of-16 shooting from the field.

He had a season-low seven points on a dreadful 2-of-13 line when he saw the Warriors in November.

Beyond that, the shooting guard has remained an inconsistent and inefficient scorer this season.

Green was 5-0 vs. this line in October, averaging 27.6 PPG.

Since then, Green is 6-13 vs. this line while averaging 17.4/game.

Green is shooting career lows from the field (39.2%) and perimeter (32.8%).

Smith over 7.5 rebounds (-106): Smith’s minutes are up significantly in December, logging an average of 36.8 per game through four contests.

He has corralled double-digit rebounds twice and landed on seven in the other two, including against these same Warriors he’ll see tonight.

Smith also had seven versus Golden State when the teams met in November.

The 21-year-old has not been a particularly strong over play against this number, clearing it nine times in 24 games. But it’s important to note he was getting nearly 10 fewer minutes per game last month.

Smith averaged 8.1 rebounds in his sophomore year last season and would have extra opportunities on the glass if either Alperen Sengun or Steven Adams are sidelined (both are questionable as of Wednesday morning).

Picks made at 11:35 a.m. ET on 12/11/2024.

NBA parlay picks Dec. 11: Back Warriors to win, Brunson to score at +295

One bet from each of Wednesday’s NBA Cup quarterfinal games forms this +295 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The Golden State Warriors have won 15 straight against the Houston Rockets and I don’t see that streak ending tonight. Elsewhere, back Jalen Brunson to fill the basket against the Atlanta Hawks

Check out the full +295 NBA parlay picks for Dec. 11.

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Parlay: Warriors moneyline + Brunson over 26.5 points (+295)

Warriors moneyline (+110): The last time the Rockets beat the Warriors was on Feb. 20, 2020.

You know, back before COVID and when James Harden and Russell Westbrook were still on the team.

It’s been a while and I can’t see a reversal of fortune tonight. Golden State finds a way whenever it plays Houston and has already logged a pair of wins over the Rockets this season with Curry sidelined.

The Warriors’ sharpshooter is back in the mix tonight and that’s obviously a boon.

It’s worth noting these teams are trending in opposite directions. Golden State is 2-6 in its last eight while Houston is 5-3.

But I can’t overlook this dominant head-to-head history and will role with the Warriors tonight.

Other parlay pick

Brunson over 26.5 points (-112): Brunson’s scoring has taken a dip with Karl-Anthony Towns in the fold but that was to be expected. It also doesn’t mean the all-star point guard has lost his touch:

2023-24 (77 games): 28.7 PPG, 21.4 FGA, 47.9% shooting
2024-25 (24 games): 25.2 PPG, 17.3 FGA, 49.6% shooting

New York’s frontman has sacrificed a bit of volume but is still shooting nearly 50.0% from the field. He’s not always the go-to guy but can still put up huge numbers with seven 30-point games in 24 starts.

And this feels like a game Brunson should take over.

The Hawks have the seventh-worst midrange defence (43.8%) and Brunson ranks in the 92nd percentile for midrange shooting frequency (45.0%), per Cleaning the Glass.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. on 12/11/2024.

Warriors vs. Rockets same-game parlay predictions Dec. 11: Back Golden State but fade Steph Curry in NBA Cup

The Golden State Warriors look to extend their dominance over the Houston Rockets to the NBA Cup on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Golden State has won 15 straight against Houston and I don’t see that streak ending tonight. Backing Alperen Sengun and fading Steph Curry on teased lines brings this SGP to +390 thanks to some negative correlation.

Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 11.

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions

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Parlay: Warriors moneyline + Curry under 5.5 threes + Sengun over 18.5 points (+380)

Warriors moneyline (+108): The last time the Rockets beat the Warriors was on Feb. 20, 2020.

You know, back before COVID and when James Harden and Russell Westbrook were still on the team.

It’s been a while and I can’t see a reversal of fortune tonight. Golden State finds a way whenever it plays Houston and has already logged a pair of wins over the Rockets this season with Curry sidelined.

The Warriors’ sharpshooter is back in the mix tonight and that’s obviously a boon.

It’s worth noting these teams are trending in opposite directions. Golden State is 2-6 in its last eight while Houston is 5-3.

But I can’t overlook this dominant head-to-head history and will role with the Warriors tonight.

SGP legs

Curry under 5.5 threes (-335): Curry is the greatest shooter of all time but this is a huge ask against a great defence.

The veteran point guard is averaging 4.2 threes on 10.0 attempts — which is still elite — but those are his lowest marks in the last five seasons.

Curry has gone under 5.5 threes in 15 of 18 starts and now faces a team with the fifth-best 3-point defence (34.1%) in the NBA.

He can still go 5-for-10 from deep, have a great night, and cash this under.

Sengun over 18.5 points (-215): Sengun is officially listed as questionable with knee soreness but he hasn’t missed a game this season so I’m not too worried.

The fourth-year centre is averaging 18.5 points on 47.3% shooting, which are solid numbers but down a tick from last season.

Golden State owns the second-worst mid-range defence (45.3%) in the NBA while Sengun ranks in the 87th percentile for midrange shot frequency (43.0%), according to Cleaning the Glass.

Sengun has cleared this total in three of his last four home games.

Picks made at 10:03 a.m. on 12/11/24.

NBA schedule, odds and betting lines Dec. 12: Celtics, Heat heavy favourites at home

Thursday’s NBA slate features just three games.

The latest: The defending champions Boston Celtics host the Detroit Pistons. Elsewhere the Toronto Raptors travel to the Sunshine State to take on the Miami Heat.

Check out our basketball betting lines and NBA schedule for Dec. 12.

NBA schedule: Dec. 12

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Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat

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Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics

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Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans

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Betting insights

After starting slowly this season, the Heat have started to pick things up. They’re currently on a three-game win streak and sit in fifth place, just two games behind the New York Knicks. Toronto owns the league’s best ATS record as an underdog (17-8-0). Raptor’s Scottie Barnes is sidelined with an ankle injury.

The Celtics put their 10-3 home record to the test against a team they’ve dominated recently. Boston has won 10 straight against Detroit but has only covered in four. The over is 7-2-1 in that stretch. The Celtics are first in points per game (120.1) and 3-pointers per game (19).

Sacramento looks to snap its six-game losing streak to New Orleans. The Pelicans have been decimated with injuries all season, resulting in their 5-20 record. They rank 30th in PPG (105.0), 3-pointers made/game (10.8) and 28th in field goal percentage (43.8%).

Hawks vs. Knicks same-game parlay predictions Dec. 11: Back Brunson in NBA Cup quarterfinal

The New York Knicks host the Atlanta Hawks in the NBA Cup quarterfinals on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta has been rolling and has already beaten New York once this season. In this +300 SGP, I like the Hawks to cover an alt spread alongside Jalen Brunson and Dyson Daniels prop bets.

Check out my Hawks vs. Knicks same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 11.

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Parlay: Brunson over 26.5 points + Hawks +10.5 + Daniels over 0.5 threes (+300)

Brunson over 26.5 points (-115): Brunson’s scoring has taken a dip with Karl-Anthony Towns in the fold but that was to be expected. It also doesn’t mean the all-star point guard has lost his touch:

2023-24 (77 games): 28.7 PPG, 21.4 FGA, 47.9% shooting
2024-25 (24 games): 25.2 PPG, 17.3 FGA, 49.6% shooting

New York’s frontman has sacrificed a bit of volume but is still shooting nearly 50.0% from the field. He’s not always the go-to guy but can still put up huge numbers with seven 30-point games in 24 starts.

And this feels like a game Brunson should take over.

The Hawks have the seventh-worst midrange defence (43.8%) and Brunson ranks in the 92nd percentile for midrange shooting frequency (45.0%), per Cleaning the Glass.

SGP legs

Hawks +10.5 (-167): There are some key names to monitor on the Hawks’ injury report.

Trae Young and De’Andre Hunter are both listed as probable, while Jalen Johnson (shoulder) is questionable.

The Hawks are coming off their worst loss of the season, a 141-111 thrashing by the Denver Nuggets, but had won six straight before then.

That includes a pair of wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers alongside wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks.

The Knicks are also rolling but they haven’t faced the same level of competition.

New York is 11-4 in its last 15 (7-8 against this line) but only one of those wins was against a non-play-in team, the Paolo Banchero-less Orlando Magic.

Daniels over 0.5 threes (-286): New York’s 3-point defence has been atrocious and Daniels is finding his stroke from deep.

The third-year shooting guard is 4-for-4 against this line in December, shooting 35.7%.

Daniels wasn’t quite as accurate in November but still went over this line in 11-of-15 games. On the whole, he has cleared this in 13 of his last 14.

New York is giving up the sixth-most 3s per game (14.1) at the 11th-highest clip (36.8%).

Picks made at 9:18 a.m. on 12/11/24.

Best NBA props Dec. 10: Back Jalen Suggs, Kyrie Irving in NBA Cup quarterfinals

I’ve got one prop bet from each of Tuesday’s NBA Cup quarterfinal games.

The pregame narrative: Jalen Suggs should take control of the shorthanded Orlando Magic offence against the Milwaukee Bucks. Later, Kyrie Irving is my pick to clear a modest point total against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 10.

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Best bet: Suggs over 20.5 points (-118)

All the stars are aligning for Suggs to have a monster night.

Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are out, which has thrust the point guard into a leading role. Those two averaged a combined 53.4 points per game for the Magic and neither has a concrete timeline to return.

When Orlando was fully healthy, Suggs was the definitive No. 3 guy. Now he’s the guy and goes up against a Bucks team that is awful at defending point guards.

Milwaukee is allowing 28.3 points per game to PGs, which is the most in the NBA, according to Fantasy Pros.
Last year, Milwaukee allowed 25.9 PPG to PGs, the third-most in basketball.
The Bucks are also allowing the third-most 3s per game to PGs (3.6) and Suggs has attempted 38 threes in his last four games.

Damian Lillard is a bonafide bucket with a Hall of Fame resume, but his defence isn’t anything special.

Suggs is the only player outside of Banchero and Wagner to be averaging north of 10.0 field goal attempts per game, and those numbers are going to go way up.

He dropped 26 points on 8-of-18 shooting against the Phoenix Suns on Sunday and had 22 the game before that (with Wagner in the lineup).

Key stat: Point guards are averaging 32.2 points against Milwaukee in the last seven days.

Quick picks

Irving over 21.5 points (-120): Luka Doncic is back in the lineup, which will naturally take some opportunities away from Irving.

But I still expect Dallas’ point guard to go over this line.

With Doncic playing, Irving is coming off 29 and 25-point outings while shooting north of 62.0% from the field in both games.

To be fair, those outings were against the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards. Things won’t come as easily tonight against the defensively elite Thunder, but that would also explain why this line is so low.

Irving has cleared this mark in 10 of 16 games with Doncic in the 2024-25 season, landing on exactly 21 points once.

Picks made at 12:53 p.m. ET on 12/10/2024.

Best NBA props Dec. 10: Back Jalen Suggs, Kyrie Irving in NBA Cup quarterfinals

I’ve got one prop bet from each of Tuesday’s NBA Cup quarterfinal games.

The pregame narrative: Jalen Suggs should take control of the shorthanded Orlando Magic offence against the Milwaukee Bucks. Later, Kyrie Irving is my pick to clear a modest point total against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 10.

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Best bet: Suggs over 20.5 points (-122)

All the stars are aligning for Suggs to have a monster night.

Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are out, which has thrust the point guard into a leading role. Those two averaged a combined 53.4 points per game for the Magic and neither has a concrete timeline to return.

When Orlando was fully healthy, Suggs was the definitive No. 3 guy. Now he’s the guy and goes up against a Bucks team that is awful at defending point guards.

Milwaukee is allowing 28.3 points per game to PGs, which is the most in the NBA, according to Fantasy Pros.
Last year, Milwaukee allowed 25.9 PPG to PGs, the third-most in basketball.
The Bucks are also allowing the third-most 3s per game to PGs (3.6) and Suggs has attempted 38 threes in his last four games.

Damian Lillard is a bonafide bucket with a Hall of Fame resume, but his defence isn’t anything special.

Suggs is the only player outside of Banchero and Wagner to be averaging north of 10.0 field goal attempts per game, and those numbers are going to go way up.

He dropped 26 points on 8-of-18 shooting against the Phoenix Suns on Sunday and had 22 the game before that (with Wagner in the lineup).

Key stat: Point guards are averaging 32.2 points against Milwaukee in the last seven days.

Quick picks

Irving over 21.5 points (-121): Luka Doncic is back in the lineup, which will naturally take some opportunities away from Irving.

But I still expect Dallas’ point guard to go over this line.

With Doncic playing, Irving is coming off 29 and 25-point outings while shooting north of 62.0% from the field in both games.

To be fair, those outings were against the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards. Things won’t come as easily tonight against the defensively elite Thunder, but that would also explain why this line is so low.

Irving has cleared this mark in 10 of 16 games with Doncic in the 2024-25 season, landing on exactly 21 points once.

Picks made at 12:02 p.m. ET on 12/10/2024.

Mavericks vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions Dec. 10: Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander should both shine in NBA Cup quarterfinals

Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the two biggest stars in tonight’s NBA Cup matchup in Oklahoma City, and I’m backing both in a +260 SGP.

The pregame narrative: Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks look poised to at least make Tuesday’s quarterfinals close, while SGA should provide plenty of scoring for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 10.

Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions

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Parlay: Mavericks +7.5 + Doncic over 7.5 rebounds + Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 points (+260)

Mavericks +7.5 (-182): Both teams are playing well right now, but Dallas enters this game on a particularly nice run.

Check out what the Mavericks have accomplished since Nov. 16:

11-1 SU record
10-2 ATS record
4-1 SU as underdogs
+11.6 net rating (1st in the NBA)

Want to guess who has the second-highest net rating in that span? Yup, it’s the Thunder (+10.8).

But what that tells me is that this should be a close game, not a blowout in OKC’s favour.

Dallas won in Oklahoma City on Nov. 17 without Doncic in the lineup. He’ll play tonight, which is obviously a world of a difference for the Mavs.

Oh, and Dallas has covered a +7.5 spread in 23 of 24 games this season.

SGP legs

Doncic over 7.5 rebounds (-215): Doncic’s numbers have sagged across the board this season, but he’s still good for eight-plus rebounds on most nights.

Last year’s third-place MVP finisher is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game. His best rebounding work has come in the past week, as he has 10-plus boards in three straight games.

The Thunder allow the most rebounds per game to opponents, and Doncic has feasted against them before.

In eight matchups against OKC last season (playoffs included), he cleared this total seven times while averaging 10.8 RPG.

Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 points (-180): Gilgeous-Alexander can score from anywhere, which makes him such a dangerous weapon regardless of his opponent.

He’s attempting 6.1 threes this year, which is a career-high for the seven-year vet. But he also ranks fifth in the NBA in free throw attempts per game (8.1).

Mix in some above-average shooting from the mid-range, and you’re looking at a bonafide bucket-getter.

SGA has averaged 30.6 PPG since the start of the 2022-23 season.

He’s scored 26-plus points in 13 straight games, averaging 32.7 PPG in that span.

Dating back to last year’s postseason, SGA has scored 30+ points in six straight vs. Dallas.

Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 12/10/24.

Magic vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions Dec. 10: Bet on Giannis, Suggs in NBA Cup quarterfinals

The first elimination matchup of the NBA Cup takes place in Milwaukee, where the Bucks host the severely shorthanded Orlando Magic.

The pregame narrative: Orlando won’t have Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner on Tuesday, which is part of the reason Jalen Suggs looks interesting in the prop market. Even so, I like Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks to take care of business.

Check out my Magic vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 10.

Magic vs. Bucks predictions

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Parlay: Bucks -2.5 + Giannis over 29.5 points + Suggs over 2.5 threes (+290)

Bucks -2.5 (-265): Orlando won its first game without Banchero and Wagner on Sunday. But that was a home game against a Phoenix Suns team playing on a back-to-back.

Tuesday’s matchup in Milwaukee will be a much tougher task.

The Bucks are 10-3 since Nov. 12, covering a -2.5 spread in nine of those victories.

Last year, Milwaukee won both home games against Orlando and covered this number both times.

Orlando has spent most of the season without Banchero, but the absence of its top two scorers will likely be too much to deal with.

SGP legs

Giannis over 29.5 points (-155): Orlando has been one of the better teams at defending the rim this season, but I don’t think that’ll matter with Giannis looming on the other side.

The Magic are allowing the second-fewest points per game to opposing power forwards (per Betting Pros), as well as the fifth-lowest field goal percentage around the rim (per Cleaning the Glass).

But they haven’t done much to slow down Giannis in the past.

Dating back to the 2022-23 season, Giannis has scored 31-plus points in four straight games against Orlando. He hit the 35-point milestone in both matchups last season.

And given that he’s averaging a career-high 32.5 PPG this year, I’m quite comfortable backing him at this number.

Suggs over 2.5 threes (-162): As a straight wager, Suggs over 3.5 threes might be the best play for this game. But I want a bit more security in this SGP format.

Suggs leads the Magic in attempted 3s per game (7.1), with Banchero and Wagner trailing right behind him. With both stars out, Suggs should be firing at will from deep.

Especially in this matchup.

Opposing point guards are averaging the most points (28.3) and the third-most 3s (3.6) per game against Milwaukee.

Suggs is 12-for-30 (40.0%) from deep over his past three games and should lean into that success as Orlando’s primary 3-point shooter.

Picks made at 9:25 a.m. on 12/10/24.

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NBA schedule, odds and betting lines Dec. 10: Thunder favoured at home vs. Mavericks

Tuesday night features the first set of NBA Cup quarterfinal matchups.

The latest: The Milwaukee Bucks face a shorthanded Orlando Magic squad that is missing key players. Elsewhere, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Dallas Mavericks in a rematch of last year’s Western Conference semifinals.

Check out our basketball betting lines and NBA schedule for Dec. 10.

NBA schedule: Dec. 10

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Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks
ML odds: Orlando +275, Milwaukee -350
Spread: Bucks -8 (-110)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
ML odds: Dallas +155, Oklahoma City -188
Spread: Thunder -4 (-110)

Betting insights

The Magic will have their two best players sidelined for Tuesday’s game. Franz Wagner tore his right oblique last week, and Paolo Banchero is nearing his return but is still out with the same injury. The Bucks have no injury restrictions and are 8.5-point favourites, understandably so.

Orlando is 2-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Milwaukee is 8-2 straight up in its past 10 games but just 5-5 ATS in that span.

The first-place Thunder host the scorching-hot Dallas Mavericks, who have won seven straight games. Dallas beat OKC in a 121-119 thriller earlier this year and took care of the Thunder in six games in last year’s playoffs. Dallas is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

Dallas is 10-2 ATS in its past 12 games, winning four of those straight up as an underdog. OKC is 5-1-1 ATS in its past seven games and was favoured in each of them.

NBA odds as of 1:19 p.m. ET on 12/09/2024.