Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the two biggest stars in tonight’s NBA Cup matchup in Oklahoma City, and I’m backing both in a +260 SGP.
The pregame narrative: Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks look poised to at least make Tuesday’s quarterfinals close, while SGA should provide plenty of scoring for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 10.
Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions
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Parlay: Mavericks +7.5 + Doncic over 7.5 rebounds + Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 points (+260)
Mavericks +7.5 (-182): Both teams are playing well right now, but Dallas enters this game on a particularly nice run.
Check out what the Mavericks have accomplished since Nov. 16:
- 11-1 SU record
- 10-2 ATS record
- 4-1 SU as underdogs
- +11.6 net rating (1st in the NBA)
Want to guess who has the second-highest net rating in that span? Yup, it’s the Thunder (+10.8).
But what that tells me is that this should be a close game, not a blowout in OKC’s favour.
Dallas won in Oklahoma City on Nov. 17 without Doncic in the lineup. He’ll play tonight, which is obviously a world of a difference for the Mavs.
Oh, and Dallas has covered a +7.5 spread in 23 of 24 games this season.
SGP legs
Doncic over 7.5 rebounds (-215): Doncic’s numbers have sagged across the board this season, but he’s still good for eight-plus rebounds on most nights.
Last year’s third-place MVP finisher is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game. His best rebounding work has come in the past week, as he has 10-plus boards in three straight games.
The Thunder allow the most rebounds per game to opponents, and Doncic has feasted against them before.
In eight matchups against OKC last season (playoffs included), he cleared this total seven times while averaging 10.8 RPG.
Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 points (-180): Gilgeous-Alexander can score from anywhere, which makes him such a dangerous weapon regardless of his opponent.
He’s attempting 6.1 threes this year, which is a career-high for the seven-year vet. But he also ranks fifth in the NBA in free throw attempts per game (8.1).
Mix in some above-average shooting from the mid-range, and you’re looking at a bonafide bucket-getter.
- SGA has averaged 30.6 PPG since the start of the 2022-23 season.
- He’s scored 26-plus points in 13 straight games, averaging 32.7 PPG in that span.
- Dating back to last year’s postseason, SGA has scored 30+ points in six straight vs. Dallas.
Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 12/10/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.