Jordan Horrobin

Tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets meet for Game 3 of the NLDS as the series shifts to Queens.

The pregame narrative: Kyle Schwarber opened this series with a bang and looks like a great value to score a run tonight at Citi Field. I’m also backing Bryce Harper and Jose Iglesias in a plus-money parlay while backing the over on a modest game total.

Check out my Phillies vs. Mets picks for Game 3 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 8.

Phillies vs. Mets picks

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Best Bet: Schwarber over 0.5 runs (+102)

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Schwarber homered in the very first inning of this series, reminding everyone about the outsized power he wields from the leadoff spot.

You can’t bank on someone cashing a run prop all on their own, though, so this pick is fuelled by what I expect to be a team effort from the Phillies.

After Schwarber, Philly typically follows with Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos (in that order). And all three of those guys have strong numbers against Mets starter Sean Manaea:

• Turner: 5-for-16, HR
• Harper: 4-for-11, HR, two 2B
• Castellanos: 6-for-16, 3 HR, 2B

If Schwarber can find a way on base, I like the chances that someone behind him can bring him around.

Lefty-on-lefty matchups are typically undesirable for hitters, but Schwarber bucks that trend. He batted .300 with a .407 on-base percentage against LHPs this season.

And this prop doesn’t even require Schwarber to get on with a hit. The NL walks leader (106) can use his watchful eye to reach base, too.

Schwarber is 2-for-6 with a home run against Manaea.

Key stat: During the regular season, Schwarber scored in 79 of 150 games (52.7%).

Quick picks

Parlay: Harper, Iglesias 1+ hits each (+128): Let’s target another Phillies hitter in a lefty-on-lefty matchup, shall we?

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As mentioned, Harper has strong numbers against Manaea — and that’s not the only lefty Harper has tormented. This season, Harper batted .301 against southpaws, which was his highest BA in that split since 2017.

Dating back to last season, Harper has an .897 OPS against LHPs. Pairing that with his success against Manaea in particular, I think he’s a good bet to record a hit for a third straight game in this series.

In the other dugout, Iglesias is also looking to record a hit for a third straight NLDS game.

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In addition to writing the Mets’ 2024 theme song (“OMG”), Iglesias has collected a boatload of hits for his new club.

The veteran infielder finished the regular season on a 22-game hit streak. All told, he batted .337 for the Mets this year.

Against Phillies starter Aaron Nola, Iglesias is 4-for-9 with a double.

Over 7 runs (-122): Given that I like a couple of offensive-minded player props, it shouldn’t be a surprise that I’m riding with the over.

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The Phillies and Mets have cleared this total in 12 of their 15 matchups — including both playoff games — while averaging 9.9 total runs.

Against New York this season, Nola has been both excellent (four-hit shutout) and atrocious (six runs over 4.1 innings). The Mets have seen him a ton over the years and accrued a .444 SLG against him in 243 at-bats, so I think they can chip in at least a couple of runs.

As for the Phillies’ offence, they’ve scored 10 runs in 16.2 innings against Manaea this year. All three of Manaea’s starts against Philly went over this run total.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET 10/08/2024.

Following an exciting, back-and-forth battle to open this series, the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees are at it again tonight for Game 2.

The pregame narrative: After a series opener that had five lead changes, I’m staying away from sides and totals tonight. This +310 SGP features prop bets on Cole Ragans, Aaron Judge and Salvador Perez.

Check out my Royals vs. Yankees predictions for Game 2 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 7.

Royals vs. Yankees SGP predictions

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Parlay: Ragans over 5.5 strikeouts + Judge to record a hit + Perez to record a hit (+310)

Ragans over 5.5 Ks (-157): Ragans has only made one start against the Yankees, and it was a good one.

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In New York last month, the left-hander struck out seven batters over six innings of two-run ball. Including that start, Ragans now has six-plus Ks in six consecutive outings.

Chucking 95 mph from the left side will always play. And it’s especially potent when paired with a changeup that generates a 47.8% whiff rate, which is the second-highest among all MLB changeups this year (minimum 100 plate appearances).

Ragans has struck out nearly 30.0% of batters he’s faced this season while averaging exactly 7.0 Ks per start. This is a comfortable number for him.

SGP legs

Judge to record a hit (-167): Judge was hitless in his postseason opener, and he’s 0-for-2 against Ragans. But you can’t let those tiny sample sizes get in the way here.

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Judge was probably the best hitter on the planet this season. And he was definitely the best hitter against lefties, posting a .311/.505/.735 slash line (236 wRC+).

Despite all the extra juice on this prop, I think there’s value to bet this straight up. Judge’s 2024 success rate on this hits prop (71.1%) outweighs the line’s implied probability (62.6%).

Perez to record a hit (-210): Another hitter who’ll have the platoon advantage tonight is Perez. He’s batting .297 against lefties this season and will face New York southpaw Carlos Rodon.

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And wouldn’t you know it, Perez has excellent numbers against Rodon, too.

The duo saw each other most often when Rodon pitched for the White Sox. In total, Perez is 12-for-26 (.462) against Rodon with three home runs and a double.

Perez has a hit in all three postseason games so far and has cashed this bet in 111 of 161 games (68.9%) this season.

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. on 10/07/24.

If you’re a fan of pitchers’ duels, you might want to tune into today’s ALDS Game 2 matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians.

The pregame narrative: Tarik Skubal, the AL-Cy-Young-in-waiting, faces ex-Tiger Matthew Boyd. I like both southpaws to pile up strikeouts and for the Guardians to cover an alt run line in my +300 SGP.

Check out my Tigers vs. Guardians predictions for Game 2 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 7.

Tigers vs. Guardians SGP predictions

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Parlay: Skubal over 5.5 strikeouts + Boyd over 4.5 strikeouts + Guardians +1.5 (+300)

Skubal over 5.5 Ks (-155): Detroit’s pitching plan in October is Skubal + chaos. And things were chaotically awful in Game 1.

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Opener Tyler Holton failed to record an out before five runs came in for Cleveland. From there, four more pitchers covered off the rest of the game — including Keider Montero, who is loosely pencilled in as the Game 3 starter.

All of this is to say that Detroit needs to lean on Skubal. Hard. He should have as long of a leash as any postseason starter, which means ample opportunity to rack up strikeouts.

Skubal collected six Ks over six innings in his wild-card start against the Astros, a team with the second-lowest K rate in the majors. He now has at least six strikeouts in 29 of 32 outings this year.

Despite allowing 10 hits in his lone start against the Guardians this season, Skubal gritted through seven innings and cashed this prop with exactly six Ks.

SGP legs

Boyd over 4.5 strikeouts (-152): I’d call this a revenge game for Boyd, but he seems far too kind-hearted to seek revenge. He used the word “grateful” about a thousand times in his pre-start media session when discussing his eight years in Detroit.

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Now it’s time to let his stuff do the talking.

Boyd joined the Guardians in mid-August and pitched well enough to earn a starting spot in a playoff rotation. He posted a 2.72 ERA and a 10.4 K/9 in eight outings.

Boyd’s fastball velocity is below league average, but he plays off it with effective changeups, sliders and curveballs. All three of his off-speed pitches have garnered a whiff rate above 35.0%, per Baseball Savant.

Detroit has the seventh-highest K rate in the majors against left-handed pitching (24.6%) and will be seeing Boyd for the very first time.

Boyd has cashed this bet in six of eight starts, averaging 5.8 Ks per outing.

Guardians +1.5 (-177): Cleveland has won five of its past six games against Detroit, including a 7-0 victory in Game 1 of this series.

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But with Skubal on the mound, I’m not bullish enough to back the Guardians to win outright. Some cushion on the run line will hopefully do the trick, as Cleveland has covered this number in seven of Boyd’s eight starts.

As for Skubal, his Tigers have only covered a -1.5 spread in 16 of his 32 starts.

Cleveland is 51-30 straight up at home this season, which is the third-best home record in the majors.

Picks made at 10:05 a.m. on 10/07/24.

The New York Yankees, who are prominent favourites to win the American League, start their playoff journey tonight at home against the Kansas City Royals.

The pregame narrative: Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees, which gives me confidence that the home team will win. This +280 same-game parlay also features prop bets on Cole and Bobby Witt Jr.

Check out my Royals vs. Yankees predictions for Game 1 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 5.

Royals vs. Yankees SGP predictions

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Parlay: Yankees moneyline + Cole over 5.5 strikeouts + Witt to record a hit (+280)

Yankees moneyline (-205): The Yankees are the best the AL has to offer.

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The odds speak for themselves, as New York is a staggering +115 favourite to win the pennant before the division series even begins. And keep in mind that the Yankees posted AL-best totals in wins (94) and run differential (+147).

Kansas City had a +91 run differential, which is still strong … but also 56 runs worse than what New York accomplished.

During the regular season, the Yankees went 5-2 against the Royals — and that was without KC ever facing Cole.

The reigning AL Cy Young winner turned things around after a couple of shaky starts, and New York won 10 of his final 15 outings this year.

SGP legs

Cole over 5.5 strikeouts (-122): The Royals had one of the lowest K rates in the majors this year. But that doesn’t faze me (or Cole, I assume).

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In this matchup, Cole has won over and over again. He’s racked up 53 Ks against the current Royals lineup in just 157 plate appearances, which equates to a 33.8% K rate.

If that was Cole’s season-long strikeout rate, it would rank in the 96th percentile of the majors.

Cole isn’t at the peak of his strikeout powers, but he’s still fanning more than a batter per inning. He hit this over in 10 of his past 15 starts, posting a 9.7 K/9 in that span.

Add that to his exceptional numbers against KC and you’ve got the recipe for a high-strikeout performance.

Witt to record a hit (-265): Witt is 2-for-6 against Cole, which is solid enough, but this pick isn’t really about that matchup.

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Frankly, Witt is a reasonable pick to record a hit against anybody. He won the batting title this year (.332 BA) and had a hit in 128 of 161 games (79.5%).

The superstar shortstop comes by it honestly, as his xBA (.321) was the highest in the majors, per Baseball Savant.

He walks at a league-average rate, rarely strikes out and has some of the highest-quality contact in the league. One hit from Witt is not much to ask for.

Picks made at 11:05 a.m. on 10/05/24.

A pair of NL East combatants meet in Game 1 of the division series today as the Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets.

The pregame narrative: In a surprise move, the Mets are starting Kodai Senga on the mound opposite Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler. I’m backing Wheeler in a plus-money combo wager (alongside Jose Iglesias), while also tailing Trea Turner’s run prop.

Check out my Mets vs. Phillies prop picks for Game 1 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 5.

Mets vs. Phillies prop picks

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Best Bet: Turner over 0.5 runs (+112)

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The Phillies’ offence finished strong during the regular season, and I want to back one of their most accomplished postseason performers as their hunt for a championship begins.

In September, Philadelphia posted the fifth-highest wRC+ (110) and scored 4.9 runs per game.

Turner was right in the middle of that, slugging .495 and scoring 18 runs in 26 games from the No. 2 spot in the lineup.

What really catches my eye with Turner, though, is his playoff resume. The 2019 World Series winner has been particularly menacing in the past two Octobers.

In 17 postseason games from 2022-23, Turner has a .343/.384/.672 slash line. He’s reached base 28 times and has 12 extra-base hits in those matchups.

Turner is 0-for-5 with a walk against Senga, but that doesn’t concern me. Senga hasn’t faced MLB hitters since July and is unlikely to go more than a couple of innings.

So instead of focusing on that pitcher-versus-hitter matchup, I’ll put my belief in a seasoned hitter who bats near the top of one of baseball’s strongest lineups.

Key stat: Turner has scored in 12 of his past 19 playoff games.

Quick pick

Parlay: Wheeler 18+ outs, Iglesias 1+ hits (+140): I really like the over on Wheeler’s outs prop, and if the juice isn’t too off-putting to you, I’d recommend betting that on its own.

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Wheeler is a bulldog in the playoffs, posting a 2.42 ERA over 11 outings (10 starts). That’s the sixth-lowest ERA in postseason history among pitchers with 10-plus starts. He has gone over 17.5 outs in eight of 10 playoff starts — including all four last October.

This year, Wheeler has collected 18-plus outs in all 11 starts since the beginning of August.

So again, feel free to bet that on its own if the price doesn’t bother you. But for folks who’d prefer something on the plus side, Iglesias is a strong fit to add to this wager.

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The veteran infielder finished the regular season on a 22-game hit streak and reached safely in two of three wild-card games.

Against Wheeler, Iglesias is 5-for-12 with a double. They last met on Sept. 22, when Iglesias tagged Wheeler for a pair of singles.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 10/05/2024.

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