A pair of NL East combatants meet in Game 1 of the division series today as the Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets.
The pregame narrative: In a surprise move, the Mets are starting Kodai Senga on the mound opposite Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler. I’m backing Wheeler in a plus-money combo wager (alongside Jose Iglesias), while also tailing Trea Turner’s run prop.
Check out my Mets vs. Phillies prop picks for Game 1 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 5.
Mets vs. Phillies prop picks
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Best Bet: Turner over 0.5 runs (+112)
The Phillies’ offence finished strong during the regular season, and I want to back one of their most accomplished postseason performers as their hunt for a championship begins.
In September, Philadelphia posted the fifth-highest wRC+ (110) and scored 4.9 runs per game.
Turner was right in the middle of that, slugging .495 and scoring 18 runs in 26 games from the No. 2 spot in the lineup.
What really catches my eye with Turner, though, is his playoff resume. The 2019 World Series winner has been particularly menacing in the past two Octobers.
In 17 postseason games from 2022-23, Turner has a .343/.384/.672 slash line. He’s reached base 28 times and has 12 extra-base hits in those matchups.
Turner is 0-for-5 with a walk against Senga, but that doesn’t concern me. Senga hasn’t faced MLB hitters since July and is unlikely to go more than a couple of innings.
So instead of focusing on that pitcher-versus-hitter matchup, I’ll put my belief in a seasoned hitter who bats near the top of one of baseball’s strongest lineups.
Key stat: Turner has scored in 12 of his past 19 playoff games.
Quick pick
Parlay: Wheeler 18+ outs, Iglesias 1+ hits (+140): I really like the over on Wheeler’s outs prop, and if the juice isn’t too off-putting to you, I’d recommend betting that on its own.
Wheeler is a bulldog in the playoffs, posting a 2.42 ERA over 11 outings (10 starts). That’s the sixth-lowest ERA in postseason history among pitchers with 10-plus starts. He has gone over 17.5 outs in eight of 10 playoff starts — including all four last October.
This year, Wheeler has collected 18-plus outs in all 11 starts since the beginning of August.
So again, feel free to bet that on its own if the price doesn’t bother you. But for folks who’d prefer something on the plus side, Iglesias is a strong fit to add to this wager.
The veteran infielder finished the regular season on a 22-game hit streak and reached safely in two of three wild-card games.
Against Wheeler, Iglesias is 5-for-12 with a double. They last met on Sept. 22, when Iglesias tagged Wheeler for a pair of singles.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 10/05/2024.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.