Following an exciting, back-and-forth battle to open this series, the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees are at it again tonight for Game 2.
The pregame narrative: After a series opener that had five lead changes, I’m staying away from sides and totals tonight. This +310 SGP features prop bets on Cole Ragans, Aaron Judge and Salvador Perez.
Check out my Royals vs. Yankees predictions for Game 2 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 7.
Royals vs. Yankees SGP predictions
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Parlay: Ragans over 5.5 strikeouts + Judge to record a hit + Perez to record a hit (+310)
Ragans over 5.5 Ks (-157): Ragans has only made one start against the Yankees, and it was a good one.
In New York last month, the left-hander struck out seven batters over six innings of two-run ball. Including that start, Ragans now has six-plus Ks in six consecutive outings.
Chucking 95 mph from the left side will always play. And it’s especially potent when paired with a changeup that generates a 47.8% whiff rate, which is the second-highest among all MLB changeups this year (minimum 100 plate appearances).
Ragans has struck out nearly 30.0% of batters he’s faced this season while averaging exactly 7.0 Ks per start. This is a comfortable number for him.
SGP legs
Judge to record a hit (-167): Judge was hitless in his postseason opener, and he’s 0-for-2 against Ragans. But you can’t let those tiny sample sizes get in the way here.
Judge was probably the best hitter on the planet this season. And he was definitely the best hitter against lefties, posting a .311/.505/.735 slash line (236 wRC+).
Despite all the extra juice on this prop, I think there’s value to bet this straight up. Judge’s 2024 success rate on this hits prop (71.1%) outweighs the line’s implied probability (62.6%).
Perez to record a hit (-210): Another hitter who’ll have the platoon advantage tonight is Perez. He’s batting .297 against lefties this season and will face New York southpaw Carlos Rodon.
And wouldn’t you know it, Perez has excellent numbers against Rodon, too.
The duo saw each other most often when Rodon pitched for the White Sox. In total, Perez is 12-for-26 (.462) against Rodon with three home runs and a double.
Perez has a hit in all three postseason games so far and has cashed this bet in 111 of 161 games (68.9%) this season.
Picks made at 11:45 a.m. on 10/07/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.