This week’s NFL TD picks target Zack Moss, Courtland Sutton and Wan’Dale Robinson.
The pregame narrative: Those might not be the biggest names, but all of them have been active in the red zone this season and have very reasonable chances to score. I’m especially bullish about Robinson, who should continue seeing an outsized workload with the New York Giants thanks to a key injury.
Check out the best NFL Week 5 TD picks for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 5 TD picks
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Best bet: Robinson anytime TD (+275)
With Malik Nabers (concussion) ruled out this week, Daniel Jones will have to find someone else to throw to.
Nabers has accounted for NFL highs in target share (38.2%) and total targets (52) just four games into his pro career. He’s an exceptional talent, and his absence means there’s a lot of potential opportunities on the table for the Giants’ other receivers.
Enter Robinson.
The third-year slot receiver has also been hyper-targeted, averaging 9.5 targets per game. To put it another way, 90 of the Giants’ 136 targets (66.2%) have gone to either Nabers or Robinson.
So with Nabers out, Robinson should continue to see plenty of looks. And of the looks he’s already seen, plenty are coming in the best part of the field.
Robinson has seven red zone targets so far, which is tied for the third most in the NFL. Nabers is second on the Giants with six … and no other New York pass-catcher has more than one.
It’s important to note that Robinson was a limited practice participant on Wednesday and Thursday. But if he’s a go, I love his opportunity against a Seattle Seahawks team that allowed three pass TDs last week.
Key stat: Robinson has been targeted in the red zone in all four weeks, and he has eight-plus targets in three of four games.
Quick picks
Moss anytime TD (-104): Moss is coming off a season-low snap share (60%) as fellow tailback Chase Brown continues to fight for an increased workload. That may be concerning, but Moss’ consistent goal-line use is a beacon of hope for TD bettors.
Moss had had at least two touches inside the 10-yard line every week, as well as at least one touch inside the five-yard line, per Rotowire.
Unsurprisingly, the fifth-year running back has scored in three of four games.
Baltimore owns the No. 1 run defence in terms of total yards and yards per rush. But the bend-don’t-break nature of its pass defence means there should still be some red zone chances for Moss.
According to Lineups, the Ravens have allowed four red zone rushing TDs on just six carries.
Sutton anytime TD (+175): The lowest over/under of the week belongs to the Raiders vs. Broncos matchup (36 points), which means it’s probably not the first place you’d look for an anytime TD bet.
But that also means some TD scorer markets for this game will be longer than you’d expect. And that’s the case with Sutton.
Though he only has one touchdown so far, Sutton has been Bo Nix’s favourite option in the red zone. The seventh-year wideout has seen multiple RZ targets in three of four games and is averaging 9.0 total targets per game so far.
Denver’s scoring offence ranks 28th in the NFL (15.5 PPG), so the trick might simply be getting into scoring territory. But if the Broncos can get there, Sutton should be the guy they look to.
According to Fantasy Pros, exactly half of Denver’s 16 red zone targets have gone to Sutton.
Picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 10/04/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.