Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Padres vs. Dodgers MLB playoff betting preview: Stats, trends and odds for NLDS matchup

As if 13 regular season games weren’t enough, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the NLDS for the second time in three years.

The latest: San Diego won the 2022 NLDS matchup, 3-1, as the underdog and will look to repeat that narrative again. Los Angeles comes off a bye to face one of the few teams it struggled to take down during the regular season.

Check out our Padres vs. Dodgers MLB playoff betting preview and odds for the series.

Padres vs. Dodgers betting preview

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Padres
Team record: 93-69
OPS: .744 (6th)
ERA: 3.86 (12th)
NLDS odds: +115
World Series odds: +550

Dodgers
Team record: 98-64
OPS: .781 (1st)
ERA: 3.90 (13th)
NLDS odds: -141
World Series odds: +315

Head-to-head stats

Finally, the Padres got the better of the Dodgers in the regular season.

San Diego went 8-5 with a +6 run differential against its SoCal adversaries, winning this NL West season series for the first time since 2010.

Los Angeles got the last laugh, though, taking two of three games at Dodger Stadium in their most recent series (Sept. 24-26).

Here are some quick betting notes from their 2024 head-to-head matchup:

Padres covered a +1.5 spread in 9/13 games
Average total was 9.1 runs
Only six of 13 games totalled 8+ runs
Padres went 4-1 at home

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Ohtani in October

Welcome to postseason baseball, Shohei Ohtani.

Yes, Ohtani is finally playing October baseball in Year 7 of his MLB career (thanks for nothing, Angels).

The Dodgers’ title aspirations were likely a component of Ohtani’s free agent decision last winter, and he’s shown over and over again how he can help L.A. realize that goal.

Ohtani is on his way to a third MVP award after crafting the first 50-50 season in league history.

Against the Padres, Ohtani’s power numbers were low by his sky-high standards. He homered once and had a .522 SLG in 12 games (his season-long SLG was .646).

Key injuries

Padres SP Joe Musgrove: Musgrove exited after 3.2 innings in his Oct. 2 wild-card start against the Braves due to elbow tightness. There is serious doubt whether he’ll pitch again this postseason, let alone in the NLDS.

The right-hander acknowledged that he’s been pitching with discomfort for a couple of weeks. Against the final batter he faced on Wednesday, Musgrove threw two curveballs that registered as the slowest he’s ever thrown, according to Statcast.

San Diego has a deep pitching staff, but the likely absence of Musgrove — who has a 2.17 ERA since Aug. 12 — is notable.

Go to full Padres vs. Dodgers series markets

Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman: After spraining his ankle on Sept. 26, Freeman missed the final three games of the regular season. Freeman participated in the Dodgers’ simulated game on Thursday, though he didn’t play the field or run the bases.

Though his mobility will likely be affected, Freeman is expected to be available from Game 1 onward.

Dodgers UTIL Miguel Rojas: After missing the final four games with a tear in his left adductor muscle, Rojas was a full participant in the Dodgers’ recent sim game.

Though Rojas will need surgery in the offseason, he plans to play through the injury for now and be ready for Game 1.

Padres vs. Dodgers betting preview: Batting comparison

The Dodgers have the advantage when it comes to offence, but that’s not a knock on the Padres. L.A. would have the advantage over anyone.

On a team-wide level, the Dodgers rank first in OPS (.781), wRC+ (118) and SLG (.446) while scoring the second-most runs per game (5.2).

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Individually, they have four qualified hitters inside the top 20 for OPS (Ohtani, Freeman, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez). San Diego has none.

The Padres’ top quartet of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar has plenty of power to go around, mind you.

And Luis Arraez (.318 BA) just won his third batting title in as many years.

But the biggest offensive storyline will be the efforts of Ohtani/Freeman/Betts, with the latter two having already stacked several moments of postseason glory.

Pitching comparison

Even without Musgrove, the Padres have to feel good about how their pitching stacks up in this series.

Michael King struck out 12 over seven scoreless innings in his first-ever playoff start, building on a stellar first season in San Diego.

Dylan Cease posted a 3.10 FIP this year, matching the FIP he posted in his 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up campaign.

And then there’s Yu Darvish, who missed most of the season but turned in five September starts. He had a 2.88 ERA over five postseason starts for San Diego in 2022.

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The Dodgers sure would like to have Tyler Glasnow right now and/or a vintage Clayton Kershaw.

Instead, they have Jack Flaherty, who’s been strong overall but was roughed up in his final three outings (10 ER in 14.0 IP).

For Game 1, L.A. is using Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who posted some encouraging results coming back from injury in September. But he hasn’t worked past the fifth inning or logged 80-plus pitches since June.

As for the bullpens, San Diego seems to have a slight edge.

In September, the Padres had the fifth-best bullpen ERA (3.06) despite ranking 17th in xFIP (4.08). In the same timeframe, the Dodgers ranked 11th in ERA (3.51) and 24th in xFIP (4.29)

College football Week 6 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Jaxson Dart, Missouri and Indiana

This week’s college football picks feature a trio of ATS predictions and a player prop on Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart.

The pregame narrative: Dart and the No. 12 Rebels have a tough matchup against South Carolina, so I’m fading his passing yard total. Elsewhere, I like No. 9 Missouri, No. 23 Indiana and Duke to cover their respective spreads.

Check out the best college football Week 6 picks for the action on Oct. 5.

College football Week 6 picks

Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

NCAAF Week 6 picks	Odds	Bet now ⬇️
Missouri +2.5	-110	Add to betslip
Dart under 289.5 pass yards	-132	Add to betslip
Indiana -13.5	-120	Add to betslip
Duke +10	-121	Add to betslip

Go to full college football betting markets.

Best Bet: Missouri +2.5 (-110)

On paper, the argument for Missouri to beat Texas A&M is pretty simple.

Mizzou is ranked higher, it hasn’t lost yet and it has a better ATS record (2-2).

TAMU, which has been favoured in every game so far, is just 1-4 ATS. That includes a six-point win as 21-point home favourites against lowly Bowling Green two weeks ago.

This SEC matchup is a clash of offensive styles. Missouri likes to overwhelm its opponents through the air, while Texas A&M is partial to running over the opposition in a literal sense.

I think the Tigers can handle the Aggies’ strong ground game, as Mizzou allows just 2.8 yards per rush.

If Mizzou QB Brady Cook can get the ball in the hands of elite wideouts Luther Burden and Theo Wease, TAMU might not be able to control the clock with its rushing attack. And any disruption of the Aggies’ offensive game plan would be huge in a matchup with odds as tight as this one.

Key stat: Missouri is a top-30 team this year based on total offence and total defence, and it has won each of its four games by at least a field goal.

Quick picks

Dart under 289.5 passing yards (-132): Dart leads the nation in overall passing yards (1,815) and yards per attempt (12.1). But after four weeks of throwing for 370-plus yards, Dart looked human last Saturday in his toughest matchup to date.

The unranked Kentucky Wildcats, who nearly knocked off Georgia in mid-September, went into Oxford and upset the Rebels, 20-17.

Dart completed 18-of-27 passes for 261 yards — his lowest yardage total of the season by more than 100.

Why do I think South Carolina can quiet Dart, too? The Gamecocks have held three of four opposing QBs under 200 yards this season.

The exception was LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, but even he fell below this total (285 yards on 40 attempts). Nussmeier has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his four other matchups.

Indiana -13.5 (-120): I’ll check my bias at the door here. As an Ohio University graduate, I’m a huge fan of Kurtis Rourke.

But hey, Indiana grads must be huge Rourke fans, too. He leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes (11) and has the Hoosiers 5-0 with the NCAA’s third-ranked scoring offence (48.8 points/game).

Indiana is 4-1 ATS and has won by 14-plus points in every game.

Northwestern has scored just 38 total points in its three games against FBS opponents. And none of those teams were ranked. This could be a bloodbath at Northwestern’s picturesque stadium along Lake Michigan.

Duke +10 (-121): Down 20-0 in the second half, Duke clawed back last week to beat rival North Carolina and move to 5-0.

Georgia Tech is still riding the coattails of its Week 0 upset win over Florida State. But we now know that FSU is awful and that win isn’t worth half as much as it was at the time.

The Yellow Jackets are 3-2, and their ultra-efficient quarterback, Haynes King (ACC-best 73.9% completion rate), could struggle against the Blue Devils.

Duke has allowed just 155.8 passing yards per game on a 56.1% completion rate.

NCAA made at 8:30 a.m. on 10/04/2024.

Oct. 5 MLB playoff odds, schedule and matchups: Padres, Dodgers set for marquee NLDS clash

Another quadruple-header awaits MLB fans on Saturday as the AL/NL division series begin.

The latest: A dramatic comeback by the New York Mets sets up an all-NL East battle with the Philadelphia Phillies in one NLDS matchup — while the Los Angeles Dodgers face the San Diego Padres in the other. On the AL side, the New York Yankees come off their bye to face the Kansas City Royals.

Check out the latest MLB playoff odds for Saturday, Oct. 5.

MLB playoff odds: Oct. 5

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Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees

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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

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Betting insights

Believe it or not, the Tigers and Guardians have never met in a playoff matchup … but that’ll change on Saturday. Cleveland won the regular season series, 7-6, but Detroit had a +10 run differential in the matchup.

Detroit tends to operate with a “Tarik Skubal or TBD” mindset when it comes to its starting pitchers. Skubal won’t be available for Game 1, so manager A.J. Hinch may deploy an opener before turning to Reese Olson, Casey Mize or Keider Montero.

The Phillies went 7-6 against the Mets this year with a +10 run differential, but the Mets were the ones taking three of four games when these teams last met (Sept. 19-22). New York is 22-10 since Aug. 29.

Over the past month, the worst offence in the majors — not merely among playoff teams — belongs to the Royals. They’re batting .203 with a .579 OPS (61 wRC+) since the start of September. In the team’s first postseason action since 2015, will the bats wake up?

The Yankees have +115 odds to win the AL after their path was somewhat cleared by the departures of the Astros and Orioles. New York went 5-2 with a +18 run differential against Kansas City this year and will turn to a red-hot Gerrit Cole (2.25 ERA since August) in Game 1.

An all-SoCal battle between the Padres and Dodgers is arguably the most exciting matchup in the division series round. San Diego won eight of 13 head-to-head matchups this season but recently dropped a three-game set in L.A.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Week 5 same-game parlay predictions: Ride with London, Otton for Thursday Night Football

NFL Week 5 kicks off with an NFC South clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons.

The pregame narrative: Both of Atlanta’s wins came by ultra-thin margins, which is why I’m content to back Tampa Bay on an alt spread. I’m also backing Cade Otton and Drake London to contribute for their respective teams in the receiving game.

Check out our Buccaneers vs. Falcons predictions for the Thursday Night Football matchup on Oct. 3.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons SGP predictions

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Parlay: Buccaneers +3.5 + Otton over 24.5 receiving yards + London over 49.5 receiving yards (+285)

Buccaneers +3.5 (-159): Atlanta earned some respect last week with its last-second win over the New Orleans Saints. But I don’t have any confidence in the Falcons beating a solid team by a decent margin.

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All four of the Falcons’ games were decided by a single possession, and their two wins came by three combined points.

Tampa’s blowout home loss in Week 3 against the Broncos is difficult to make sense of, but the team has three encouraging results in its other matchups:

17-point win vs. Commanders
4-point win at Lions
17-point win vs. Eagles

Last year, the Bucs and Falcons split the home-and-home, but Tampa Bay covered a +3.5 spread both times. The Bucs are 11-4 ATS as underdogs since the start of 2023.

SGP legs

Otton over 24 receiving yards (-159): Tampa Bay’s typical WR3 and WR4, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer, were both ruled out for tonight’s game. That’ll open up some opportunities for other pass-catchers.

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If you’re looking in Chris Godwin’s direction, I get it. He’s off to an excellent start and has earned an even heartier target share. But I also like the way Otton has performed lately, rebounding from a slow start.

In Weeks 1-2, Otton had just one catch on four targets for five yards. He was targeted on just 9.1% of his routes and did very little with minimal opportunities.

But in Weeks 3-4, he had 13 catches on 17 targets for 99 yards. Otton was targeted on 26.6% of his routes, per Rotowire, and saw 30-plus air yards in both games.

This is the first week that both McMillan and Palmer will be out. With that in mind, Otton should hit the 25-yard receiving mark for a third straight game.

London over 49.5 receiving yards (-210): Taking Buccaneers +3.5 shouldn’t discourage anyone from backing London on a modest yardage prop like this.

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We haven’t seen London break out yet this season, but his volume in recent weeks has created a steady floor from which to operate.

From Weeks 2-4, London has six-plus catches and 50-plus yards each game. He has 28 targets in that span, maxing out at 12 targets — and a whopping 164 air yards — last week.

London torched the Bucs at home last season, turning 11 targets into 10 catches and 172 yards. He now has 346 receiving yards in his past three games against Tampa and has hit the 50-yard milestone each time.

Picks made at 11:50 a.m. on 10/03/24

Mets vs. Brewers Game 3 prop picks: Jackson Chourio has plus-money value to score

The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers will play a decisive Game 3 of their NL wild-card series tonight at American Family Field.

The pregame narrative: None of the other wild-card series reached a rubber match, which puts this game fully in the spotlight tonight. In the prop market, I like Jackson Chourio to score and am backing both starting pitchers (Jose Quintana, Tobias Myers) to collect a handful of strikeouts.

Check out my Mets vs. Brewers prop picks for Game 3 of their wild-card series on Oct. 3.

Mets vs. Brewers prop picks

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Best Bet: Chourio over 0.5 runs (+116)

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Maybe it’s because he already has a long-term contract in place, or maybe it’s because he’s just really good. But either way, Chourio has looked comfortable at the MLB level from the jump.

The 20-year-old outfielder posted a 3.8 bWAR season with 20-plus homers and steals. He also finished third on the Brewers in total bases (245).

Okay, so the regular season didn’t faze Chourio … but surely the youngster would trip up in his first playoff action, right?

Nope.

Chourio is 4-for-8 with three runs, three RBI and two homers in this wild-card series. Last night, he hit game-tying HRs in the first and eighth innings for the Brewers to help keep their season alive.

Since the all-star break, Chourio has primarily batted in the Nos. 1 and 2 spots in Milwaukee’s lineup. That’s the ideal spot to be when you’re looking for a guy to score.

It also helps that Chourio is one of the league’s fastest players, ranking in the 97th percentile for sprint speed, per Baseball Savant.

One challenge here is that Quintana is on fire, only allowing four runs over his past six starts (0.74 ERA). But Chourio has had great swings against the New York starter and should give himself a chance to cash this prop.

Key stat: Chourio is 3-for-5 with a double and a walk against Quintana.

Quick pick

Parlay: Quintana, Myers 4+ Ks each (+128): As I just mentioned above, Quintana is scorching right now.

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The veteran lefty shrugged off a rough start to August by posting a 0.74 ERA and .197 opponent BA since Aug. 25. He finished the year against the Brewers, fanning nine batters over just 4.1 innings of two-run ball.

Quintana cleared this K total in 22 of 31 starts this year and has an impressive 25.3% K rate in 79 plate appearances against Milwaukee’s active lineup.

On the other side of this matchup, I think Myers can carve up the Mets even if his role is somewhat limited.

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On short rest in his final outing of the season, Myers struck out five Mets in just 4.0 innings. That allowed the rookie to finish the year with a solid 3.00 ERA and an 8.3 K/9.

He cashed this bet in 19 of 25 starts. Four Ks is not a big ask for Myers against the Mets, who had the 10th-highest K rate in the second half.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 10/03/2024.

MLB playoff best bets Oct. 1: Brewers, Orioles should get bats rolling in wild-card openers

I’m backing three team props in today’s MLB postseason quadruple-header.

The pregame narrative: Both the Baltimore Orioles and Milwaukee Brewers are worth a look to clear their team totals, which are set at 3.5 runs apiece. Later on, I think an even-money price on the San Diego Padres to score first as the home team is a strong choice.

Check out these MLB playoff best bets for the wild-card matchups on Oct. 1.

MLB playoff best bets

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Best bet: Orioles over 3.5 runs (-110)

I initially liked the over on the game total (6.5 runs) but was scared off by Corbin Burnes’ scorching September and the fact that the Royals had MLB’s worst offence last month (.203 BA, 61 wRC+).

So instead, I’ll ride with the over on Baltimore’s run total alone. This is a very attainable number for the O’s.

Baltimore finished the regular season with the fourth-best team OPS (.750) and the second-most home runs (235). They also scored a hearty 4.9 runs per game.

Gunnar Henderson is the headliner, but Baltimore has enviable depth in its lineup, too. There are nine active O’s who’ve played 100-plus games this season and have a wRC+ above the league-average mark (100).

Kansas City Royals starter Cole Ragans saw Baltimore twice this season and the results couldn’t have been any more different. On April 3, he one-hit the O’s over 6.1 innings … but later than month, he allowed seven runs on nine hits in just 1.2 IP.

Baltimore finished over 3.5 runs in both games, as it did most of the season. And I have faith that the team O’s can cash again today.

Key stat: The Orioles have scored over 3.5 runs in eight of their past 10 games, as well as in 99 of 162 (61.1%) games this year.

Quick pick

Brewers over 3.5 runs (-138): There’s more juice on this total than on Baltimore’s but I’m still happy to buy in.

Luis Severino has made 31 starts this year, and his opponents have hit this over 17 times. That includes his start against the Brewers in the spring, when Milwaukee torched the righty for six runs on 11 hits over 5.0 innings.

The Brewers’ lineup is 15-for-45 (.333) against Severino with five extra-base hits. That’s not a huge sample, but it is an encouraging one.

Milwaukee’s bats went a bit cold in September, but they put together strong numbers throughout the season. The Brew Crew cashed this over in 92 of 162 (56.8%) games, averaging 4.8 runs per game.

Padres to score first (-125): Tonight’s Braves/Padres game is in San Diego, which means the Padres will be at a disadvantage to score first. But with Michael King in a groove, I think there’s some value here nonetheless.

King, who has a 2.07 ERA and a .565 opponent OPS since July, will face the Braves for the first time as a starter. In previous relief appearances against them, he held them to just three hits versus eight Ks over 28 at-bats.

Also, King has a 1.80 ERA in the first inning this year, and his Padres have averaged more first-inning runs (0.59) than the Braves (0.52).

At the time of this writing, the Braves haven’t announced their starting pitcher. But I know it won’t be any of their top three starters (Chris Sale, Max Fried or Reynaldo Lopez).

Backing the Padres to score first and win (+150) is within reason, too.

Picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET on 10/01/2024.

NFL Week 5 underdog picks and predictions: Fade Steelers on SNF, back Panthers vs. Bears

In this week’s NFL underdog picks, I’m fading the current and former quarterbacks for the Chicago Bears.

The pregame narrative: Justin Fields plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers now, and his team is off to a strong start. But I think the Dallas Cowboys can come in and disrupt things on extra rest this week. In the Windy City, Caleb Williams and Co. might have trouble containing the Andy Dalton-led Carolina Panthers (yes, I know what I said).

Check out how these NFL Week 5 underdog picks.

NFL Week 5 underdog picks

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Best bet: Panthers moneyline (+170)

Competent quarterback play is always a great starting point when considering an underdog pick.

Andy Dalton fits that criterion, as he’s demonstrated through a pair of starts in relief of embattled sophomore Bryce Young.

Dalton has thrown for 539 yards and five touchdowns (one interception) with a 65.4% completion rate this year. The Panthers fell to a desperate Cincinnati Bengals squad last week, but it wasn’t the offence’s fault.

Up next is a road date with the Bears, which is certainly not a fun defence to face as a visitor. But Chicago had some lapses last week against the severely shorthanded Rams, who might’ve won had they not settled for field goals on three red zone trips.

And again, let’s look at the quarterback play. Is anyone scared to face Caleb Williams right now? His Bears mustered just 264 yards last week and ranks 30th in total offence this season.

Chicago only has six total TDs on the season. Dalton has thrown for five in just the past two weeks.

I wouldn’t say that the Panthers have a high ceiling, but their offence has enough punch to keep them in a game against a rookie quarterback who still has a lot to learn.

Key stat: With the exception of two kneel-down drives, the Panthers have scored in 11 of 20 drives with Andy Dalton under centre this year. By contrast, the Bears have scored on just 33.3% of drives with Williams.

Week 5 upset predictions

Cowboys moneyline (+120): Flash back to Week 1, when the Cowboys were 2.5-point underdogs in Cleveland and came away with a dominant win. Four weeks later, Dallas will try to do the same thing as 2.5-point dogs against another AFC North opponent.

Was last week a fluke for the Steelers, or the first sign of a crumbling foundation?

In a 27-24 loss to the untrustworthy Colts, Pittsburgh’s only first-half points came on a buzzer-beating field goal from 50 yards out. In the second half, it couldn’t slow down Joe Flacco enough to complete the comeback.

My primary concern for the Cowboys is that Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence will be sidelined. But the Steelers have been winning because of their defence — not because of their offence, which only has six touchdowns in four games.

Dallas, which played on Thursday Night Football last week, is 7-2 with a rest advantage since 2022.

Picks made at 2:50 p.m. ET on 10/01/2024.