In this week’s NFL underdog picks, I’m fading the current and former quarterbacks for the Chicago Bears.
The pregame narrative: Justin Fields plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers now, and his team is off to a strong start. But I think the Dallas Cowboys can come in and disrupt things on extra rest this week. In the Windy City, Caleb Williams and Co. might have trouble containing the Andy Dalton-led Carolina Panthers (yes, I know what I said).
Check out how these NFL Week 5 underdog picks.
NFL Week 5 underdog picks
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Best bet: Panthers moneyline (+170)
Competent quarterback play is always a great starting point when considering an underdog pick.
Andy Dalton fits that criterion, as he’s demonstrated through a pair of starts in relief of embattled sophomore Bryce Young.
Dalton has thrown for 539 yards and five touchdowns (one interception) with a 65.4% completion rate this year. The Panthers fell to a desperate Cincinnati Bengals squad last week, but it wasn’t the offence’s fault.
Up next is a road date with the Bears, which is certainly not a fun defence to face as a visitor. But Chicago had some lapses last week against the severely shorthanded Rams, who might’ve won had they not settled for field goals on three red zone trips.
And again, let’s look at the quarterback play. Is anyone scared to face Caleb Williams right now? His Bears mustered just 264 yards last week and ranks 30th in total offence this season.
Chicago only has six total TDs on the season. Dalton has thrown for five in just the past two weeks.
I wouldn’t say that the Panthers have a high ceiling, but their offence has enough punch to keep them in a game against a rookie quarterback who still has a lot to learn.
Key stat: With the exception of two kneel-down drives, the Panthers have scored in 11 of 20 drives with Andy Dalton under centre this year. By contrast, the Bears have scored on just 33.3% of drives with Williams.
Week 5 upset predictions
Cowboys moneyline (+120): Flash back to Week 1, when the Cowboys were 2.5-point underdogs in Cleveland and came away with a dominant win. Four weeks later, Dallas will try to do the same thing as 2.5-point dogs against another AFC North opponent.
Was last week a fluke for the Steelers, or the first sign of a crumbling foundation?
In a 27-24 loss to the untrustworthy Colts, Pittsburgh’s only first-half points came on a buzzer-beating field goal from 50 yards out. In the second half, it couldn’t slow down Joe Flacco enough to complete the comeback.
My primary concern for the Cowboys is that Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence will be sidelined. But the Steelers have been winning because of their defence — not because of their offence, which only has six touchdowns in four games.
Dallas, which played on Thursday Night Football last week, is 7-2 with a rest advantage since 2022.
Picks made at 2:50 p.m. ET on 10/01/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.