This week’s college football picks feature a trio of ATS predictions and a player prop on Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart.
The pregame narrative: Dart and the No. 12 Rebels have a tough matchup against South Carolina, so I’m fading his passing yard total. Elsewhere, I like No. 9 Missouri, No. 23 Indiana and Duke to cover their respective spreads.
Check out the best college football Week 6 picks for the action on Oct. 5.
College football Week 6 picks
Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| NCAAF Week 6 picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Missouri +2.5 | -110 | Add to betslip |
| Dart under 289.5 pass yards | -132 | Add to betslip |
| Indiana -13.5 | -120 | Add to betslip |
| Duke +10 | -121 | Add to betslip |
Go to full college football betting markets.
Best Bet: Missouri +2.5 (-110)
On paper, the argument for Missouri to beat Texas A&M is pretty simple.
Mizzou is ranked higher, it hasn’t lost yet and it has a better ATS record (2-2).
TAMU, which has been favoured in every game so far, is just 1-4 ATS. That includes a six-point win as 21-point home favourites against lowly Bowling Green two weeks ago.
This SEC matchup is a clash of offensive styles. Missouri likes to overwhelm its opponents through the air, while Texas A&M is partial to running over the opposition in a literal sense.
I think the Tigers can handle the Aggies’ strong ground game, as Mizzou allows just 2.8 yards per rush.
If Mizzou QB Brady Cook can get the ball in the hands of elite wideouts Luther Burden and Theo Wease, TAMU might not be able to control the clock with its rushing attack. And any disruption of the Aggies’ offensive game plan would be huge in a matchup with odds as tight as this one.
Key stat: Missouri is a top-30 team this year based on total offence and total defence, and it has won each of its four games by at least a field goal.
Quick picks
Dart under 289.5 passing yards (-132): Dart leads the nation in overall passing yards (1,815) and yards per attempt (12.1). But after four weeks of throwing for 370-plus yards, Dart looked human last Saturday in his toughest matchup to date.
The unranked Kentucky Wildcats, who nearly knocked off Georgia in mid-September, went into Oxford and upset the Rebels, 20-17.
Dart completed 18-of-27 passes for 261 yards — his lowest yardage total of the season by more than 100.
Why do I think South Carolina can quiet Dart, too? The Gamecocks have held three of four opposing QBs under 200 yards this season.
The exception was LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, but even he fell below this total (285 yards on 40 attempts). Nussmeier has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his four other matchups.
Indiana -13.5 (-120): I’ll check my bias at the door here. As an Ohio University graduate, I’m a huge fan of Kurtis Rourke.
But hey, Indiana grads must be huge Rourke fans, too. He leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes (11) and has the Hoosiers 5-0 with the NCAA’s third-ranked scoring offence (48.8 points/game).
Indiana is 4-1 ATS and has won by 14-plus points in every game.
Northwestern has scored just 38 total points in its three games against FBS opponents. And none of those teams were ranked. This could be a bloodbath at Northwestern’s picturesque stadium along Lake Michigan.
Duke +10 (-121): Down 20-0 in the second half, Duke clawed back last week to beat rival North Carolina and move to 5-0.
Georgia Tech is still riding the coattails of its Week 0 upset win over Florida State. But we now know that FSU is awful and that win isn’t worth half as much as it was at the time.
The Yellow Jackets are 3-2, and their ultra-efficient quarterback, Haynes King (ACC-best 73.9% completion rate), could struggle against the Blue Devils.
Duke has allowed just 155.8 passing yards per game on a 56.1% completion rate.
NCAA made at 8:30 a.m. on 10/04/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.