Jordan Horrobin

With October comes the MLB postseason, and we’re kicking off the wild-card action with a four-pack of games.

The latest: The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves advanced to the postseason by splitting a doubleheader yesterday, and they’re both underdogs in their respective NL matchups. In the AL, Cy-Young-in-waiting Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers face the Houston Astros, while Corbin Burnes and the Baltimore Orioles host the Kansas City Royals.

Check out the latest MLB playoff odds for Tuesday, Oct. 1.

MLB playoff odds: Oct. 1

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Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

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Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles

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New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers

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Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres

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Betting insights

• Skubal is in excellent form right now, with a 1.94 ERA over his past nine starts (the Tigers are 7-2 in those games). But Houston’s active lineup has hit him hard, posting a .522 SLG in 74 plate appearances. The Astros beat Skubal and the Tigers, 4-0, when they last met in Houston in June.

• For as well as Skubal has pitched recently, Houston starter Framber Valdez has been even better. He has a 1.65 ERA over his past nine starts (the Astros are 7-2 in those games). The Tigers’ active lineup has just a .308 SLG against Valdez, who led the Astros to victory in Detroit on May 10.

• Over the past month, the worst offence in the majors — not merely among playoff teams — belongs to the Royals. They’re batting .203 with a .579 OPS (61 wRC+) since the start of September. In the team’s first postseason action since 2015, will the bats wake up?

• Baltimore hit the over at the second-highest rate in the majors this season (58.2%), per Team Rankings. Among Corbin Burnes’ 32 starts, 23 of them finished with over 6.5 runs.

• The Brewers went 5-1 against the Mets this year, and they are 15-for-45 (.333) with five extra-base hits against New York starter Luis Severino.

• Atlanta’s reward after playing a doubleheader yesterday? Fly cross-country for a date against Michael King and the Padres. King has a 2.26 ERA and a 10.6 K/9 since the beginning of June.

On a bonus day of the MLB regular season, the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves meet for a win-and-in doubleheader at Truist Park.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta’s Spencer Schwellenbach starts opposite New York’s Tylor Megill in Game 1, and I’m liking a pair of Braves bats on plus-money bases props.

Check out my Mets vs. Braves prop picks for Sept. 30.

Mets vs. Braves prop picks

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Best Bet: Matt Olson over 1.5 bases (+160)

Olson doesn’t have great numbers against Megill, batting 3-for-14 (.214) with a home run and a pair of walks. But in his defence, Baseball Savant has him at a .298 xBA in those at-bats, so maybe the results should be a little better.

Either way, that’s not really what this is about.

Olson turned a corner in August and then turned up the heat even more in September. It took awhile in an otherwise underwhelming season, but he’s finally flashing the power that led to an MLB-high 54 homers last year.

Entering Aug. 1, Olson had a .226/.305/.411 slash line. Since then, he’s posted a .292/.392/.563 line. His 178 wRC+ in September ranks eighth in the majors.

For a cleanup hitter who’s found his stride, you can do a lot worse than a +160 price to collect multiple bases.

And although Olson’s numbers aren’t great against Megill, they aren’t terrible, either. A 16-plate-appearance sample at least tells us there should be minimal surprises.

Megill, a right-hander, has traditionally struggled against lefty bats like Olson. Throughout his career, Megill has allowed an .831 OPS to lefty hitters.

Key stat: Olson has gone over 1.5 bases in 12 of his past 19 games, posting a 1.169 OPS in that span.

Quick pick

Marcell Ozuna over 1.5 bases (+105): Ozuna is the opposite case compared to Olson. Fantastic numbers against Megill and less-fantastic numbers recently.

The all-star designated hitter is 6-for-12 with two homers and a double against Megill.

When the Braves last faced Megill, on July 27, Ozuna and Olson hit back-to-back HRs off him in the fourth inning.

Ozuna hasn’t had the best month from a power perspective, as he’s slugging just .407. But his .304/.381/.552 slash line on the season is still one of the best in the league.

Depending on how you want to warp the sample size, you can look at Ozuna through a rosier or gloomier light. He’s hitless in three straight games but has still gone over 1.5 bases in six of his past 10.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET 09/30/2024.

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For most teams, today marks the conclusion of their season. That means it’s the last chance to bet on a full slate of MLB props.

The pregame narrative: It won’t be the last chance to bet on Luis Arraez, whose Padres are through to the postseason. But it might not be a common occurrence to see his run prop at such an enticing price moving forward, so I’m on that today along with plays on Shohei Ohtani and Logan Gilbert.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 29.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Arraez over 0.5 runs (+110)

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As a general concept, one of my absolute favourite MLB prop bets is backing the leadoff hitter on the visiting team to score.

Arraez fits that mould, and he’s facing a pitcher who has struggled to get him out.

Brandon Pfaadt is on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks today, and Arraez is 9-for-13 (.692) with a double against him.

This will be San Diego’s fourth matchup against Pfaadt in 2024, much to the chagrin of Arizona’s right-hander. He’s allowed a .337 BA (35-for-95) to the current Padres lineup.

Pfaadt hasn’t seen the Padres since before the all-star break, mind you, but it’s not as if he’s pitching better lately against other squads.

His past seven starts have been a nightmare: 8.53 ERA, .350 opponent BA, .960 opponent OPS. Pfaadt has allowed four-plus runs in five of those seven outings … despite getting through the sixth inning just once.

So it’s a Grade-A matchup for Arraez, who’s on his way to a third batting title in as many seasons.

As a lefty hitter, Arraez also has the platoon advantage against Pfaadt. Arraez has an .826 OPS versus RHPs in his career and a .681 OPS versus LHPs.

Arraez has scored in 13 of his past 24 starts, posting a .404 on-base percentage in that span.

Key stat: In Pfaadt’s three starts against the Padres this year, Arraez has reached base nine times and scored four runs.

Quick pick

Ohtani over 1.5 hits (+102): You rarely see a multi-hit prop that’s flirting with a price on the wrong side of even money. Ohtani is just that good.

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I completely understand the upcharge here given what Ohtani has accomplished overall at Coors Field and lately against all opponents.

In the thin-air environment of Coors, Ohtani is 21-for-54 (.420) in his career and 14-for-28 this season. He cashed this bet in the first two games of this series, collecting six hits in 11 plate appearances.

Ohtani now has multiple hits in four straight games, as well as in 19 of his past 35 overall. Truly absurd stuff.

Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has been decent since the start of August (3.73 ERA, .245 opponent BA), but this isn’t about him. This is about backing the top ballplayer on Earth in the league’s most friendly offensive venue.

Gilbert under 7.5 Ks (-108): Gilbert struck out nine batters the last time he faced the Oakland A’s, but I still think the under is the right way to go on this line today.

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The Seattle Mariners are out of playoff contention, so there’s no need to push Gilbert to hard. He’s already past 200.0 innings and 200 strikeouts, so we aren’t on any type of milestone watch today.

All in all, this is a number Gilbert doesn’t usually clear. He’s averaging 6.7 Ks per start this season — still very strong — while going under 7.5 Ks in 21 of 32 outings.

Since the all-star break, Oakland has a 23.0% K rate, which is the 16th-highest in the majors. Not exactly a plus matchup.

Gilbert can still carve up today’s opponent without hitting the over on his strikeout total.

Picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 09/29/2024.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are playing for their postseason lives this weekend in a series against the San Diego Padres.

The pregame narrative: San Diego has already clinched a wild-card spot and now enters a potential playoff series preview against Arizona. I’m fading Merrill Kelly’s outs prop tonight while backing Fernando Tatis Jr. to score a run.

Check out my Padres vs. Diamondbacks prop picks for Sept. 27.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks prop picks

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Best Bet: Kelly under 17.5 outs (-115)

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This game will have a playoff atmosphere, especially on Arizona’s side. That might make you think the D-backs would push Kelly to go deep, but I actually think the opposite is more likely.

Let’s say tonight’s contest is within a couple of runs as it reaches the sixth inning. Wouldn’t Arizona rather play the matchup game with its bullpen rather than run Kelly through San Diego’s order a third time?

Also, Kelly exited his last start prematurely due to a calf cramp — after exiting early with a hamstring cramp two starts before that. So Arizona might not be able to push him even if it wanted to.

The Diamondbacks should have their full array of relief options, too. They were off on Thursday and only used six total relievers over their three previous games.

None of Arizona’s relief arms have pitched more than once since Tuesday (and a handful haven’t pitched at all).

The Padres’ active lineup has seen plenty of Kelly (173 plate appearances) and has a .404 SLG against him. Last season, Kelly went under this outs prop in both matchups against San Diego.

Key stat: Kelly has gone under 17.5 outs in five of his past eight starts, averaging 16.3 outs in that span.

Quick pick

Tatis over 0.5 runs (-110): I tailed this prop bet yesterday and Tatis didn’t cash. But he did get on base twice. I’ll chalk that up to a good process and a poor result.

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I still like the bet tonight, thanks in large part to Tatis’ strong track record against Kelly. The all-star outfielder is 8-for-22 (.364) against Kelly with four homers, a double and three walks. That equates to a 1.395 OPS.

Another home run from Tatis would be ideal because that cashes the bet instantly. But the Padres’ strong offence — fourth in wRC+ in the second half — should bring him around as long as he finds a way on base.

Tatis has a 1.030 OPS over his past 20 starts and has scored 16 runs in that span.

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET 09/27/2024.

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