A blockbuster matchup greets us on Sunday Night Football this week, as the Buffalo Bills face the Baltimore Ravens.
The pregame narrative: The Ravens are home favourites against the unbeaten Bills, and I like the thought of taking extra points with the visitors. This +340 SGP also features prop bets on Khalil Shakir and Derrick Henry.
Check out my Bills vs. Ravens same-game parlay predictions for Week 4 below.
Bills vs. Ravens same-game parlay predictions
Parlay: Bills +7.5 + Shakir over 39.5 receiving yards + Henry anytime TD (+340)
Bills +7.5 (-250): You shouldn’t have to tease the Bills up this much, but it puts us in a really nice starting spot for this SGP.
Buffalo is 3-0, so obviously it has covered this number in every game. It has the highest EPA per play on offence — according to RBSDM.com — and the seventh-best EPA per play on defence.
Baltimore could be 3-0, but instead, it’s 1-2 with a pair of one-score losses. After blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of Week 2, the Ravens came awfully close to blowing a 22-point fourth-quarter lead last week.
I mention that to say the Ravens haven’t proven they can hold a sizeable lead. And the Bills clearly have enough offensive punch to battle back if need be.
Since losing in blowout fashion to the Ravens as a rookie, Josh Allen has covered this number in three straight games against them. That includes a 23-20 win in Baltimore two years ago.
Other parlay picks
Shakir over 39.5 receiving yards (-186): Shakir has ranked third among Bills pass-catchers in snap share each of the first three weeks. But that’s no cause for concern.
The third-year slot receiver leads Buffalo in targets (14) and receiving yards (168). He’s only been on the field for 58.2% of snaps, yet he has a 78.1% route participation rate, per Player Profiler.
What does that tell us? Buffalo wants the ball in his hands and is treating him as a quality-over-quantity guy.
Shakir has gained 10 first downs already, which is twice as many as any of his teammates (James Cook is next with five). He’s also caught every pass thrown his way.
The Ravens have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL through three weeks. Shakir has cashed this bet in every game of 2024 and should do so again.
Henry anytime TD (-177): Henry steamrolled a questionable run defence last week, and he’s got another one on the docket tonight.
Against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3, Henry rumbled for 151 yards and two TDs on 26 touches. Week-over-week, he’s seen increases in touches, yards and yards per touch.
The first-year Raven has carried the ball inside the five-yard line every week and scored a touchdown in every week, too.
Though the Bills have been a respectable defence overall, their run defence has had issues. They’re allowed 4.7 yards per rush, which ranks 24th in the NFL.
Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 09/29/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.