Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Georgia vs. Alabama college football Week 5 picks: Ryan Williams should spark Crimson Tide in SEC showdown

Georgia vs. Alabama picks

The biggest college football clash of the month unfolds on Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium, as the Alabama Crimson Tide host the Georgia Bulldogs.

The pregame narrative: No. 4 Alabama was a playoff team last year, while No. 2 Georgia won the national championship in both of the seasons before that. This game is a massive one, and I think the Crimson Tide will cover as rare home underdogs. In the prop market, look out for Ryan Williams and Trevor Etienne.

Check out my top Georgia vs. Alabama picks for this ranked Week 5 matchup.

Georgia vs. Alabama picks

Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

UGA vs. Bama Week 5 picksOddsBet now ⬇️
Williams over 49.5 rec. yards+110Add to betslip
Alabama +2.5-118Add to betslip
Etienne over 15.5 rush attempts-120Add to betslip

Go to full college football betting markets.

Best Bet: Williams over 49.5 receiving yards (+110)

The ferocious Georgia defence will be Williams’ first true test as a college football player. But he’s passed all the easier tests with flying colours.

The true freshman, who doesn’t turn 18 until February, has been an absolute home run hitter through three games:

  • vs. Western Kentucky: 2 catches, 139 yards, 2 TDs
  • vs. South Florida: 4 catches, 68 yards, 1 TD
  • at Wisconsin: 4 catches, 78 yards, 1 TD

He leads the nation with 28.5 yards per reception, which theoretically means he’s two catches away from cashing this bet. That yards/reception number seems unsustainably high, but it also illustrates the speed and athleticism that this youngster wields.

Just last week, retired Alabama coach Nick Saban compared Williams to the freshman version of Amari Cooper, who finished with 1,000 yards in his first season in Tuscaloosa. High praise, but so far it looks earned.

The reason this relatively modest yardage total sits at plus-money odds is that Georgia has been utterly dominant on defence. The Dawgs have allowed just 18 total points to their three opponents on 202.0 yards per game.

Williams has never faced Georgia, and he never took a visit to Athens during his recruitment. Time to show the Bulldogs what they’re missing out on.

If you have a greater appetite for risk, consider Williams as an anytime TD scorer (+215). He’s scored in all three Alabama games and has already flashed plenty of big-play potential.

Key stat: Williams is averaging 95.0 receiving yards per game and has cashed this bet in all three matchups.

Quick pick

Alabama +2.5 (-118): Did you know that the last time Alabama was a home underdog was the year Williams was born (2007)?

It’s a rare sight and I think Bama will remind us why on Saturday.

The Tide have scored 40-plus points in all three of their games so far, which is nice to see even against lesser opponents. In Georgia’s most recent game, the Dawgs scraped by with a 13-12 win over unranked Kentucky.

Alabama won last year’s SEC championship game over Georgia, 27-24, as 5.5-point underdogs. Both teams have the same quarterbacks now as they did then, but with a lot of departures at other skill positions.

Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey left a huge hole in the Bulldogs’ offence, and I’m not confident that the current Georgia outfit can win by a comfortable margin in Tuscaloosa.

Etienne over 15.5 rush attempts (-120): The losses of Bowers and McConkey only make the arrival of Etienne more significant for Georgia’s offence.

Etienne, a Florida transfer and the younger brother of Jacksonville Jaguars tailback Travis Etienne, stepped into the Dawgs’ offence to be the lead runner. He missed their season opener due to a suspension and was only gently used in a blowout win over Tennessee Tech the following week.

But in Georgia’s nail-biting win over Kentucky, Etienne was pivotal. He carried the ball 19 times for 79 yards while adding one catch for 11 yards.

Etienne basically had the backfield to himself, accounting for 20 of 26 touches within the RB group.

Alabama’s run defence has been more lenient than its pass defence so far, so that’s an area that Georgia might look to exploit with Etienne.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 09/27/2024.

Top NFL Week 4 TD picks: Jayden Daniels, Diontae Johnson, Kyren Williams can all build off big weeks

NFL Week 4 TD picks

Three players who scored last weekend are the subjects of this week’s TD picks.

The pregame narrative: Jayden Daniels, who scampered to the end zone on Monday Night Football, is a logical touchdown scorer with one of his tailbacks ruled out. I’m also backing a Carolina Panther for the second time in as many weeks, plus Kyren Williams after a massive performance last Sunday.

Check out the best NFL Week 4 TD picks for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 4 TD picks

Go to full NFL betting markets.

Best bet: Diontae Johnson anytime TD (+148)

Embed: #95785

Last week, I called my shot with Adam Thielen to score for the Panthers as the Andy Dalton regime began anew. Thielen cashed and then promptly landed on the injured reserve with a hamstring injury.

That’s bad news for Carolina, but it’s good news for Johnson’s production potential.

Even with Thielen on the field for half of last week’s game, Johnson put up huge numbers with Dalton: eight catches on 14 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown.

Johnson had already established a healthy target share with Bryce Young under centre, commanding more than 22.0% of targets in Weeks 1 and 2, per Rotowire. But that target share spiked to 35.0% last Sunday.

With Thielen out of the picture for now, Johnson should continue to see a huge target volume. He’s a reliable veteran presence in a WR room that’s otherwise very inexperienced.

It’s important to note that Johnson (groin) did pop up on the injury report Thursday as a non-participant in practice. But Steve Reed of the AP reported that Johnson’s absence was “precautionary” due to slick field conditions and he was expected to be back in the mix on Friday.

As long as Johnson is on the field, I like his chances to perform against the Cincinnati Bengals.

In Week 3, Cincinnati couldn’t get off the field against rookie Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders. Daniels threw for a pair of TD passes and the team never punted.

Johnson has seven red zone targets so far and no one else on the Panthers has more than two.

Key stat: Johnson has been targeted in the red zone all three weeks. That includes a season-high four red zone targets last Sunday.

Quick picks

Williams anytime TD (-129): This isn’t a very flashy pick given the price, but Williams has been a ball hog for the Rams in the red zone.

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The starting tailback saw a whopping 10 red zone carries last week and now has an NFL-high 19 on the season. He also has five red zone targets, turning that into 31 yards and a score.

Williams posted a hat trick of touchdowns last week to cash this ticket for the third consecutive game.

The Chicago Bears’ defence looks tough, but it has allowed four rushing touchdowns already and seems to be extra potent in the passing game. Chicago has the third-best defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com.

Daniels anytime TD (-110): At 50 points, the Commanders/Cardinals matchup has the highest projected total of the week. I think this is a good way to get a piece of that.

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Daniels already has three rushing touchdowns through three weeks, and he’s carried the ball 10-plus times in each game. With Austin Ekeler (concussion) ruled out, those rushing opportunities for the rookie quarterback aren’t going anywhere.

Though he’s a bit slight of build for a 6-foot-4 QB, Daniels is remarkably fearless about running in open space and between the tackles. His rushing TD last week came on a read option from the four-yard line.

Picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on 09/27/2024.

College football Week 5 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Illinois, Fresno State

College football Week 5 picks

I’m dialling up a moneyline bet and an ATS pick for Week 5 of the college football season.

The pregame narrative: No. 9 Penn State is laying too many points for my liking against No. 19 Illinois, so I’m riding with the Fighting Illini. Elsewhere, look for Fresno State to capitalize on a tumultuous situation at UNLV.

Check out the best college football Week 5 picks for the action on Sept. 28.

College football Week 5 picks

NCAAF Week 5 picksOdds
Fresno State moneyline+115
Illinois +18.5-130

Go to full college football betting markets.

Best Bet: Fresno State moneyline (+115)

The Matthew Sluka situation changed everything about this week’s Fresno State vs. UNLV matchup.

Sluka, the starting quarterback and leading rusher at UNLV, announced Wednesday that he “will not be playing in any additional games this season” due to an issue with unpaid NIL commitments.

UNLV has an interesting backup quarterback in Hajj-Malik Williams, the career passing leader at FCS Campbell who transferred to Las Vegas for a sixth collegiate season. Williams has 88 rush yards on 10 carries this season but has yet to attempt a pass.

And although he put up big numbers with Campbell, he struggled mightily against FBS-calibre competition. In three games against FBS schools over the past three seasons, Williams’ Camels scored just 24 total points.

A midweek quarterback change is jarring, and I’m not sold on Williams holding down the fort with limited prep time.

Fresno State is a competent enough team to take advantage of this odd situation. Remember, the Bulldogs are three-time reigning bowl winners who gave Michigan a small scare in Week 1 and have three straight wins since.

Last year, Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene threw for 256 yards and four touchdowns against UNLV.

Key stat: Fresno State has gone 6-0 against UNLV over the past six seasons, winning each of those matchups by at least a touchdown.

Quick pick

Illinois +18.5 (-130): Illinois went into Nebraska last week and beat a frisky Cornhuskers squad as a 9.5-point underdog.

Luke Altymer looks like a guy who’s made serious strides in his second year as a starting QB. He has a 10:0 TD-to-INT ratio while completing 71.5% of his passes.

Penn State was the latest team to beat up on hapless Kent State last week, and I’m not putting much stock into that 56-0 drubbing. The week before, the Nittany Lions scratched out a seven-point win as 34.5-point home favourites against Bowling Green.

Illinois is 3-0-1 ATS so far and can cover this spread without playing anywhere near its ceiling.

NCAA made at 9:40 a.m. on 09/27/2024.

College football Week 5 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Illinois, Mississippi’s Tre Harris

College football Week 5 picks

I’m dialling up a player prop, a moneyline bet and an ATS pick for Week 5 of the college football season.

The pregame narrative: No. 9 Penn State is laying too many points for my liking against No. 19 Illinois, so I’m riding with the Fighting Illini. Elsewhere, look for Fresno State to capitalize on a tumultuous situation at UNLV and for Ole Miss receiver Tre Harris to continue balling out.

Check out the best college football Week 5 picks for the action on Sept. 28.

College football Week 5 picks

Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

NCAAF Week 5 picksOddsBet now ⬇️
Fresno State moneyline+100Add to betslip
Harris over 89.5 rec. yards-129Add to betslip
Illinois +18.5-113Add to betslip

Go to full college football betting markets.

Best Bet: Fresno State moneyline (+100)

The Matthew Sluka situation changed everything about this week’s Fresno State vs. UNLV matchup.

Sluka, the starting quarterback and leading rusher at UNLV, announced Wednesday that he “will not be playing in any additional games this season” due to an issue with unpaid NIL commitments.

UNLV has an interesting backup quarterback in Hajj-Malik Williams, the career passing leader at FCS Campbell who transferred to Las Vegas for a sixth collegiate season. Williams has 88 rush yards on 10 carries this season but has yet to attempt a pass.

And although he put up big numbers with Campbell, he struggled mightily against FBS-calibre competition. In three games against FBS schools over the past three seasons, Williams’ Camels scored just 24 total points.

A midweek quarterback change is jarring, and I’m not sold on Williams holding down the fort with limited prep time.

Fresno State is a competent enough team to take advantage of this odd situation. Remember, the Bulldogs are three-time reigning bowl winners who gave Michigan a small scare in Week 1 and have three straight wins since.

Last year, Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene threw for 256 yards and four touchdowns against UNLV.

Key stat: Fresno State has gone 6-0 against UNLV over the past six seasons, winning each of those matchups by at least a touchdown.

Quick picks

Harris over 89.5 receiving yards (-129): Harris has gone nuclear so far, hitting the over on this line in all four of his games. Usually with ease.

As the favourite target for Ole Miss starter Jaxson Dart, Harris has ample opportunities to feast. Just look at these game logs:

  • vs. Furman: 8 catches, 179 yards, 2 TDs
  • vs. Middle Tennessee State: 9 catches, 130 yards
  • at Wake Forest: 10 catches, 94 yards
  • vs. George Southern: 11 catches, 225 yards, 2 TDs

This week, the Rebels are home against the Kentucky Wildcats, who held then-No. 1 Georgia to just 262 yards and 13 points.

But UGA’s top receiver, Dominic Lovett, still finished with 89 yards in that matchup. I expect even more out of the Dart-Harris connection.

Illinois +18.5 (-113): Illinois went into Nebraska last week and beat a frisky Cornhuskers squad as a 9.5-point underdog.

Luke Altymer looks like a guy who’s made serious strides in his second year as a starting QB. He has a 10:0 TD-to-INT ratio while completing 71.5% of his passes.

Penn State was the latest team to beat up on hapless Kent State last week, and I’m not putting much stock into that 56-0 drubbing. The week before, the Nittany Lions scratched out a seven-point win as 34.5-point home favourites against Bowling Green.

Illinois is 3-0-1 ATS so far and can cover this spread without playing anywhere near its ceiling.

NCAA made at 3:30 p.m. on 09/26/2024.

Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks Sept. 26: Tatis, Musgrove should shine for San Diego

Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks

For the final time this year — at least in the regular season — the San Diego Padres face the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The pregame narrative: Walker Buehler is in a spiral, which makes both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill worth playing on various prop markets. I’m backing Merrill in an even-money parlay with Freddie Freeman while also taking the over on Joe Musgrove’s strikeout prop.

Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks for Sept. 26.

Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Tatis over 0.5 runs (-115)

Embed: #95718

Tatis is hot right now, Buehler is not, and their head-to-head history skews heavily in Tatis’ favour.

After missing most of the summer with a leg injury, Tatis returned to the lineup in September and didn’t miss a beat. He’s batting .295 with a .966 OPS this month and has scored 14 runs in 19 games.

I wouldn’t mind backing Tatis to go over 1.5 bases (-118), as he’s notched an extra-base hit in 10 of his past 13 games. But getting a slightly better price for Tatis to score is compelling.

Either way, Tatis should be able to do damage against Buehler, who unlike Tatis has really struggled since his return from the injured list.

Over his past seven starts, Buehler has allowed an .860 opponent OPS, as well as 24 runs through 33.1 innings.

Tatis is 8-for-26 (.308) against Buehler with four home runs. From the No. 2 spot in San Diego’s lineup, I like his chances of finding his way across the plate.

Key stat: Tatis has scored in 51 of 96 starts this year — including 29 of his past 50.

Quick picks

Musgrove over 5.5 Ks (-110): This is a toss-up, so the price is perfectly fair. It really depends on what you think of Musgrove’s recent heater.

Embed: #95730

Like the Padres, Musgrove is peaking at the best time and flashing his best stuff in the stretch run. He’s cashed this over in six of his past seven starts, averaging 7.1 Ks per outing in that span.

The Dodgers aren’t an ideal matchup, as they have the 10th-lowest K rate in the majors (21.5%). And Musgrove has gone under 5.5 Ks in all three starts against L.A. since the start of last year.

Then again, Musgrove’s K rate against the Dodgers’ current lineup (23.0%) is solid over a hefty 217-plate-appearance sample.

If Musgrove can get through six innings — as he has in five of his past six starts — he’s a great pick to cash this bet.

Parlay: Freeman, Merrill 1+ hits each (+100): If you’re looking for something on the Dodgers’ side, I think Freeman is the guy to bet on tonight.

Embed: #95726

He has a hit in 100 of 146 games — as well as four multi-hit games in his past seven. Freeman is also 13-for-30 (.433) with four walks against Musgrove, so he sees the Padres starter quite well.

Betting on Freeman to merely get a hit has a lot of juice, but we can bring it up to even money by adding Merrill to the mix.

Embed: #95724

The NL Rookie of the Year contender is batting .306 this month and has recorded a hit in 19 of his past 28 starts. He’s also 2-for-2 against Buehler.

Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET 09/26/2024.

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Cowboys vs. Giants Week 4 same-game parlay predictions: Back Dallas, Ferguson to excel on Thursday Night Football

Cowboys vs. Giants predictions

After a pair of home losses, the Dallas Cowboys hit the road to face the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: This should be a get-right game for the Cowboys, who’ve dominated their NFC East rivals in recent seasons. In addition to an alt spread in Dallas’ favour, this same-game parlay includes prop bets on Jake Ferguson and Malik Nabers.

Check out my Cowboys vs. Giants same-game parlay predictions for Week 4 below.

Cowboys vs. Giants same-game parlay predictions

Parlay: Cowboys -2.5 + Ferguson over 3.5 receptions + Nabers over 59.5 receiving yards (+265)

Cowboys -2.5 (-195): Dallas and New York are both 1-2 teams that have beaten the Cleveland Browns. But I think that’s where the similarities end.

Embed: #95670

Just look at their recent head-to-head results. Over the previous three seasons, the Cowboys are 6-0 with a +126 point differential against the Giants. That’s an average margin of three touchdowns.

Not every game has been quite that lopsided, but Dallas has won all of them by at least one touchdown. So teasing this spread down to less than a field goal seems like more than a fair ask.

A porous defence has been Dallas’ downfall so far, but New York’s offence doesn’t concern me. The Giants have only scored 45 points through three weeks (29th in the NFL).

If you’re bullish about the standard spread (Dallas -5.5), that would boost this SGP up to +360.

Other parlay picks

Ferguson over 3.5 receptions (-180): Ferguson was forced out of the Cowboys’ season opener with a knee injury, but he returned last week with a vengeance. He torched the Baltimore Ravens for six catches and 95 yards on 11 targets.

Embed: #95671

It’s often difficult to gauge a player’s usage after an injury, so it was nice to see Ferguson so heavily involved from the jump.

And based on how he closed out last year, there’s no reason to expect a drop-off moving forward.

Ferguson has now seen five-plus targets in 12 of his past 13 games, including the Cowboys’ lone playoff matchup last winter. Here’s a closer look at Ferguson’s production in that span:

  • 7.5 targets per game
  • 5.0 catches per game
  • 4+ catches in 10 of 13

Last year, Ferguson commanded seven targets apiece in two matchups against the Giants. He’s a compelling volume play.

Nabers over 59.5 receiving yards (-205): The only truly trustworthy player on the Giants’ offence is Nabers, an astonishing rookie who’s currently living up to the hype.

Embed: #95672

With 271 receiving yards already, Nabers is fifth among all NFLers through three weeks. He’s also seen a whopping 37 targets, which is a positive indicator of how badly New York wants to put the ball in his hands.

Nabers has cashed this bet in all three games so far, and if the underdog Giants are playing from behind, I suspect they’ll have to air it out to him all night.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. on 09/26/24.

Cowboys vs. Giants Week 4 best bets and odds: Bet on Nabers to shine but Dallas to cover on Thursday Night Football

Cowboys vs. Giants best bets

The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants kick off Week 4 action on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are 1-2 with a win over the same opponent, but I don’t view them as equals. I like the Cowboys to cover a -5.5 spread and for Malik Nabers to shine in the receiving game.

Check out my Cowboys vs. Giants best bets for the Week 4 matchup on Sept. 26.

Cowboys vs. Giants best bets

Embed: #95528

Go to full NFL betting markets

Best Bet: Nabers over 69.5 receiving yards (-124)

Embed: #95522

Nabers is the Giants’ offence. That is hardly a hyperbolic statement.

Through three games, Nabers has 23 receptions, 271 receiving yards and three touchdowns. That’s 37.1% of the Giants’ receptions, 45.2% of their receiving yards and half of their total TDs.

The sixth-overall pick from April’s draft has been an electrifying weapon for an offence that desperately needed one — especially in Year 1 of the post-Saquon Barkley era.

I don’t like to put my hope in Daniel Jones’ hands, but I don’t think even he can screw this up. At least not if he continues throwing to Nabers at such an excessive clip.

A whopping 37 of Daniel Jones’ 104 pass attempts have targeted Nabers, which equates to a 35.6% target share. For context, Tyreek Hill led the NFL with a 30.5% target share last season.

It’s fair to assume that Nabers’ piece of the offensive pie won’t remain this large, but even with some regression, he should have ample opportunities to collect 70-plus yards.

Nabers had 66 yards in his NFL debut against the Minnesota Vikings, who’ve had one of the league’s best defences so far (third in defensive EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com).

After that, he torched the Commanders and Browns for 205 yards on 18 catches and cashed this bet in both games.

Key stat: Dallas is 14th in defensive EPA per dropback and has allowed two opposing receivers to clear this line so far.

Quick Pick

Cowboys -5.5 (-110): Dallas’ Week 1 win against the Browns doesn’t look as impressive now as it did a few weeks ago, and the team has since dropped a pair of home games. So the ‘boys aren’t exactly rolling ahead of Thursday Night Football.

Embed: #95527

Still, the head-to-head dominance they’ve displayed against the Giants in recent seasons is something I can get behind.

Over the previous three seasons, Dallas is 6-0 against New York with a +126 point differential. That sounds made up … but it’s not.

More importantly, the Cowboys have covered this spread in all six of those games. Dak Prescott missed one of them and Jones missed two, but the results never wavered.

These teams have one common opponent so far this year: Cleveland. The Giants just beat the Browns by six, while the Cowboys’ win in Cleveland came by 16 points.

Picks made at 3:35 p.m. ET 09/24/2024.

Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks Sept. 24: Bet on Ohtani, King to shine in pivotal NL West clash

Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks

There will be a playoff atmosphere at Dodger Stadium this week as the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers grapple for NL West supremacy.

The pregame narrative: San Diego is three games back of L.A. with six games to go, but the Padres have the tiebreaker if needed. In tonight’s series opener, look for Michael King to do his part by racking up strikeouts. I also have plays involving Shohei Ohtani, Luis Arraez and Teoscar Hernandez.

Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks for Sept. 24.

Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best Bet: King over 5.5 Ks (-105)

Embed: #95501

When the Padres opted to deal away Juan Soto, they did so because they had more pressing roster holes to fill — namely, the rotation.

King may not seem like a snazzy headliner in a blockbuster trade, but he’s having an excellent season. With a 3.04 ERA and 10.6 K/9 through 30 outings, he’s accrued 3.9 bWAR for the Friars.

Let’s highlight that 10.6 K/9 for a moment. This is his third consecutive season with a double-digit K/9 rate. Given that this is King’s first year as a full-time starter, it’s very encouraging to see that trend carry over.

He’s had a solid strikeout rate all year, but it’s been even better since mid-June. Since June 12, King has averaged 7.2 Ks per start and cleared this total in 14 of 16 outings.

The Dodgers aren’t a plus matchup when you’re hunting for the over on strikeout props, but they aren’t a terrible matchup, either. Their K rate since the all-star break (22.3%) is 19th in the majors.

King has 15 Ks in 12.0 innings against L.A. this year, as well as a 30.2% K rate against the lineup as a whole in 96 plate appearances. So I know he can shove in this matchup.

Key stat: King has tallied over 5.5 strikeouts in 21 of 30 starts this year

Quick picks

Parlay: Arraez, Hernandez 1+ hits each (+114): This is a solid price to back a pair of all-star hitters to simply record a base knock.

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Starting with Arraez, we’re putting our trust in a guy who’s on track to win his third consecutive batting title. Arraez is batting .407 over his past 20 starts and cashed this bet in 17 of those games.

As a leadoff man on the visiting team, Arraez will have as many chances as possible to record a hit.

Hernandez, meanwhile, almost has a compelling enough price to bet as a straight wager. And I’m not sure why.

Embed: #95510

He’s 5-for-19 (.263) with a home run against King, which is more of a point for him than against him. And Hernandez is batting .308 in 15 games this month.

The Home Run Derby champ has a hit in 18 of his past 25 starts (and in two of the hitless games, he was pulled early due to injury or a lopsided score).

Ohtani over 1.5 bases (+104): It’d be irresponsible to say a plus-money price on Ohtani’s bases prop is an auto-play, but it’s not far from the truth. At a number like this, I always have to at least dig a little deeper.

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In this case, I really like what I’m seeing. Ohtani has excellent numbers against King and overall in recent weeks.

Against King, the expectant NL MVP is 5-for-12 with three home runs and a double.

Overall, Ohtani has a .701 SLG since Aug. 11. And he’s gone over 1.5 bases in 23 of 39 games (59.0%) in that span.

Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET 09/24/2024.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox Sept. 24: Take the under but back Guerrero to crush

Blue Jays picks

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox for the second matchup in a three-game series tonight at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Aside from one last opportunity for Loonie Dogs, there isn’t much to be excited about at this point in the Jays’ season. But that won’t stop the picks from flowing in, and tonight I like the under as well as a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prop.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Sept. 24.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-150)

I called for the under on last night’s game at this very number, and it cashed with ease in a 4-1 win for the Red Sox. Tonight looks just as promising for this bet.

Let’s look at Toronto’s offence first, which was two outs away from a goose egg last night but scratched out a run in the ninth inning.

The Jays have now scored four or fewer runs in 11 of their past 14 games. Their .328 SLG in that span ranks 27th in the majors.

A couple of Blue Jays hitters have done serious damage against Boston starter Brayan Bello (more on one of them in a moment), but he’s pitching well enough right now that that doesn’t concern me.

Bello has a 2.89 ERA and a .204 opponent batting average over his past eight starts. And he’s allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of his past 13 outings.

On the other side of the pitching matchup — and sorry for burying the lede here — is Bowden Francis. Next to Vladdy’s resurgence, Francis has been Toronto’s best story of the second half.

Since the start of August, Francis has a 1.66 ERA and a .120 opponent batting average in nine outings. That includes 7.0 innings of one-hit ball against the Red Sox on Aug. 29.

Francis absolutely has the goods to keep Boston quiet, while Toronto’s lineup has been untrustworthy as a whole.

Key stat: The Jays have gone under 8.5 runs in 18 of 23 games since Aug. 28.

Quick pick

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+115): His power numbers have cooled a bit this month, but Guerrero is still doling out plenty of quality contact. And as alluded to, he’s had plenty of success against Bello.

The all-star first baseman is 9-for-22 (.409) with two homers and three doubles against Boston’s right-hander. He’s gone over 1.5 bases in three of five matchups against Bello since the start of last season.

Like I said, Francis and Guerrero have been Toronto’s best stories in the second half.

Vladdy’s 1.158 OPS since the all-star break is second in the majors, and he’s cashed this bet in 34 of 58 games (58.6%) since then.

Picks made at 11:15 a.m. on 09/24/24.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox Sept. 24: Take the under but back Guerrero to crush

Blue Jays picks

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox for the second matchup in a three-game series tonight at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Aside from one last opportunity for Loonie Dogs, there isn’t much to be excited about at this point in the Jays’ season. But that won’t stop the picks from flowing in, and tonight I like the under as well as a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prop.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Sept. 24.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-127)

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I called for the under on last night’s game at this very number, and it cashed with ease in a 4-1 win for the Red Sox. Tonight looks just as promising for this bet.

Let’s look at Toronto’s offence first, which was two outs away from a goose egg last night but scratched out a run in the ninth inning.

The Jays have now scored four or fewer runs in 11 of their past 14 games. Their .328 SLG in that span ranks 27th in the majors.

A couple of Blue Jays hitters have done serious damage against Boston starter Brayan Bello (more on one of them in a moment), but he’s pitching well enough right now that that doesn’t concern me.

Bello has a 2.89 ERA and a .204 opponent batting average over his past eight starts. And he’s allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of his past 13 outings.

On the other side of the pitching matchup — and sorry for burying the lede here — is Bowden Francis. Next to Vladdy’s resurgence, Francis has been Toronto’s best story of the second half.

Since the start of August, Francis has a 1.66 ERA and a .120 opponent batting average in nine outings. That includes 7.0 innings of one-hit ball against the Red Sox on Aug. 29.

Francis absolutely has the goods to keep Boston quiet, while Toronto’s lineup has been untrustworthy as a whole.

Key stat: The Jays have gone under 8.5 runs in 18 of 23 games since Aug. 28.

Quick pick

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+120): His power numbers have cooled a bit this month, but Guerrero is still doling out plenty of quality contact. And as alluded to, he’s had plenty of success against Bello.

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The all-star first baseman is 9-for-22 (.409) with two homers and three doubles against Boston’s right-hander. He’s gone over 1.5 bases in three of five matchups against Bello since the start of last season.

Like I said, Francis and Guerrero have been Toronto’s best stories in the second half.

Vladdy’s 1.158 OPS since the all-star break is second in the majors, and he’s cashed this bet in 34 of 58 games (58.6%) since then.

Picks made at 10:35 a.m. on 09/24/24.