There will be a playoff atmosphere at Dodger Stadium this week as the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers grapple for NL West supremacy.
The pregame narrative: San Diego is three games back of L.A. with six games to go, but the Padres have the tiebreaker if needed. In tonight’s series opener, look for Michael King to do his part by racking up strikeouts. I also have plays involving Shohei Ohtani, Luis Arraez and Teoscar Hernandez.
Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks for Sept. 24.
Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks
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Best Bet: King over 5.5 Ks (-105)
When the Padres opted to deal away Juan Soto, they did so because they had more pressing roster holes to fill — namely, the rotation.
King may not seem like a snazzy headliner in a blockbuster trade, but he’s having an excellent season. With a 3.04 ERA and 10.6 K/9 through 30 outings, he’s accrued 3.9 bWAR for the Friars.
Let’s highlight that 10.6 K/9 for a moment. This is his third consecutive season with a double-digit K/9 rate. Given that this is King’s first year as a full-time starter, it’s very encouraging to see that trend carry over.
He’s had a solid strikeout rate all year, but it’s been even better since mid-June. Since June 12, King has averaged 7.2 Ks per start and cleared this total in 14 of 16 outings.
The Dodgers aren’t a plus matchup when you’re hunting for the over on strikeout props, but they aren’t a terrible matchup, either. Their K rate since the all-star break (22.3%) is 19th in the majors.
King has 15 Ks in 12.0 innings against L.A. this year, as well as a 30.2% K rate against the lineup as a whole in 96 plate appearances. So I know he can shove in this matchup.
Key stat: King has tallied over 5.5 strikeouts in 21 of 30 starts this year
Quick picks
Parlay: Arraez, Hernandez 1+ hits each (+114): This is a solid price to back a pair of all-star hitters to simply record a base knock.
Starting with Arraez, we’re putting our trust in a guy who’s on track to win his third consecutive batting title. Arraez is batting .407 over his past 20 starts and cashed this bet in 17 of those games.
As a leadoff man on the visiting team, Arraez will have as many chances as possible to record a hit.
Hernandez, meanwhile, almost has a compelling enough price to bet as a straight wager. And I’m not sure why.
He’s 5-for-19 (.263) with a home run against King, which is more of a point for him than against him. And Hernandez is batting .308 in 15 games this month.
The Home Run Derby champ has a hit in 18 of his past 25 starts (and in two of the hitless games, he was pulled early due to injury or a lopsided score).
Ohtani over 1.5 bases (+104): It’d be irresponsible to say a plus-money price on Ohtani’s bases prop is an auto-play, but it’s not far from the truth. At a number like this, I always have to at least dig a little deeper.
In this case, I really like what I’m seeing. Ohtani has excellent numbers against King and overall in recent weeks.
Against King, the expectant NL MVP is 5-for-12 with three home runs and a double.
Overall, Ohtani has a .701 SLG since Aug. 11. And he’s gone over 1.5 bases in 23 of 39 games (59.0%) in that span.
Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET 09/24/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.